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The 2024 Canadian Open begins on Thursday and concludes on Sunday at Hamilton Country Club in Hamilton, Ontario.
Last year, Nick Taylor held off Tommy Fleetwood with a monstrous eagle putt in a playoff to become the first Canadian to win the event in over half of a century.
The last time the Canadian Open was held at Hamilton (2019), Rory McIlroy logged one of the most dominant wins of his career, running away from the rest of the field with a seven-stroke victory. He has also won the Canadian Open two of the past three times the tournament was played (it was canceled in 2020 and 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic).
So, it should be no surprise that McIlroy is the far-and-away favorite to win the RBC Canadian Open at +360 heading into Thursday’s first round.
Here are our best bets for the 2024 Canadian Open:
PGA Tour: 2024 Canadian Open best bets
Alex Noren to win (+2500 at BetMGM)
Noren has been on fire, finishing in the top 25 in eight consecutive tournaments and a T-25 in mid-January at the American Express.
This is a course where players have to post a low score to win. Seven of the past eight winners have scored minus-17 or better, with McIlroy’s minus-22 in 2019 being the scoring record.
Noren fits the bill, ranking sixth in greens in regulation percentage (GIR%); he has consistently given himself birdie opportunities throughout the season.
Part of scoring low is avoiding big numbers and blow-up holes. Bogeys on this course can sometimes lose close to two strokes on the field. Again, Noren is in fantastic shape here, ranking second in scrambling percentage.
This is a shorter course at roughly 7,100 yards, so Noren’s accuracy (45th) carries substantially more weight than his length off the tee (121st).
Rory McIlroy top-5 finish (+110 at DraftKings)
Hamilton has undergone substantial renovations since McIlroy posted his record 22-under in 2019. However, many aspects of this course remain the same. Big hitters, especially ones that hit it straight, gain a massive advantage on the rest of the field, considering this is one of the shorter courses they will play all year.
McIlroy eviscerated his competition in 2019, and while the course has been modified and lengthened since then, he still has a style advantage over the field and enters this tournament in elite form.
He is first on tour in driving distance and 27th in driving accuracy, and with seven par-4s playing between 400 and 450 yards, he will have a wedge in his hand for his second shot more often than not.
At nearly 318 yards off the tee, McIlroy will consistently be between 75-100 yards approaching the green, which is his sweet spot. He’s hitting those shots to around 11 feet on average, which is also first on tour. With the way he has been rolling the ball this season (41st in putting accuracy and 38th in putts per round), it is no wonder he is such a massive favorite.
Furthermore, McIlroy can get to all of the par-5s in two shots, which could be where he differentiates himself from the highly accurate but shorter hitters off the tee.
McIlroy finished first at Valero and third at Wells Fargo in his past five events. While his short odds would generally be unfavorable, this course, tournament and this field all provide exceptions to that rule.
If he doesn’t win, he should at least be in contention on Sunday.
