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Even if the stakes aren’t sky-high, it’s always fun to see baseball’s best collection of talent take the field all at once in the All-Star Game.
With baseball’s stars converging in Arlington, Texas on Tuesday night for the Midsummer Classic, let’s take a look at how to bet the game, a task made challenging by the low stakes and unconventional personnel management that goes into the game itself.
2024 MLB All-Star Game odds
- Moneyline: National +100 | American +120
- Run Line: National -1.5 (+170) | American +1.5 (-205)
- Total: Over 7.5 runs (-108) | Under 7.5 runs (-112)
Odds via BetMGM
How not to bet the All-Star Game
The one thing you should always remember when betting on an event like this is that it’s not a regular game. For instance, if the two teams were trying to win above all else, there’s no realistic way the American League could have won nine times in a row from 2013-2022, or shortly before that, won 12 times and tied once in a 13-game span. The talent level between the two teams is inherently too close for that kind of a run if both teams are playing to win.
So, what we don’t want to do is bet a result. There’s no sound analysis we can do to determine who will come out on top, because regardless of how the matchups could play out, managers are unlikely to act logically or the way they would in one of their team’s games. In an attempt to get everyone their moment on the field, one manager could put in a lefty reliever against a righty batter in a high-leverage situation, something that would never happen in an important game.
We also don’t want to bet a total for the same reason. Due to anti-strategic management, either the offense or pitching could gain an unnatural upper hand.
Where to find ASG value
What we can do is assess who most wants to perform at a high level in this game. If you look at the MVP favorites through this lens, it makes little sense. Aaron Judge tops the list, but what does he have to prove? He owns an MVP, seasons with 62 and 52 home runs, and even homered off Max Scherzer in a previous All-Star Game.
Shohei Ohtani and Bryce Harper each own a pair of regular-season MVPs, and Juan Soto won a World Series with the Nationals as a core offensive player.
Gunnar Henderson could be a good candidate, but with +1000 odds, the odds for the Orioles slugger are a bit too short to be the best value. Instead, let’s focus in on the most-observed player in baseball over the past few months — Pittsburgh Pirates rookie phenom Paul Skenes, the starting pitcher for the National League.
You can find odds as long as +3500 on Skenes to win MVP, and he could do just that with an iconic starting pitching performance, if the game is low-scoring or lacks signature offensive moments. Pundits have said that giving him the starting role just 11 starts into his career is a “gimmick.” As much of a competitor he is, he will be looking to prove otherwise.
Similarly, Corbin Burnes, the American League starting pitcher, will have a chip on his shoulder, after getting traded by Milwaukee to Baltimore last February. He’s in a contract year and shutting down a powerful NL lineup is a nice thing to have on the resume.
The veteran Burnes should be highly motivated against the rookie Skenes. While we love the value on Skene’s MVP odds, expect Burnes to match him pitch for pitch.
All-Star Game best bets
- Paul Skenes to win All-Star Game MVP (+3500, BetMGM)
- No runs first inning (-140, DraftKings)
