With perhaps the exception of the American League East, there might not be a more competitive division in baseball this coming season than the National League Central.
If not the most competitive from top to bottom (sorry, Pirates), an argument could be made that it will be the most exciting with an influx of young prospects and budding superstars.
With the division’s teams having relatively quiet winters, the decisions to move forward with young talent have been clearly established.
The biggest addition in the Central was not even a move from outside the division. Craig Counsell’s stunning decision to manage the Brewers’ biggest rival just 90 miles south of Milwaukee should have reverberations throughout the NL Central.
At least that’s what the Cubs are hoping after giving the Wisconsin native the richest managerial contract in MLB history. And one of the reasons they have the second-best odds on the board to win the division, while the Brewers – who won the Central by nine games last season – have been handed the second-worst by most sportsbooks.
Let’s run down the teams, ordered by the best available odds to win the NL Central, and make a pick for which one will win the division.
2024 NL Central odds
St. Louis Cardinals (+175, bet365)
Sure, the Cardinals have won the division two times in the past eight seasons, but they almost always are overrated because of their rich baseball history and dominance of the division during a 16-year stretch, starting in 2000, in which they won nine crowns.
But nothing apparently was learned from last year when oddsmakers made them the preseason favorite and PECOTA projected them for second. St. Louis finished last in the Central, 21 games behind the Brewers.
While almost everyone else in the division is headed for a youth movement, the Cardinals are leaning on experience, but experience comes with age and that’s what bit them in 2023.
The additions of Sonny Gray, (34), Kyle Gibson (36) and Lance Lynn (37 in May) will help the starting rotation, but won’t subtract from the roster’s average age, which showed its ugly self a year ago.
Win total: 85.5
Chicago Cubs (+240, FanDuel)
There’s no doubt Counsell will be a massive upgrade for the Cubs. Nobody knows how to get more talent out of players than Counsell, who in nine seasons in Milwaukee led the Brewers to four division crowns and six top-two finishes. He also led the cost-conscious Crew to the playoffs in five of the last six seasons.
Will Counsell’s presence be enough to get Chicago over the hump and win its first full-season division title since 2017? That will be answered roughly seven months from now, but in a week when pitchers, catchers and position players report to camp, it’s all about conjecture.
Unlike Counsell’s old club, there’s no cost-cutting with the free-spending Cubs. All eyes were on Shota Imanaga when camp opened this week, and for good reason. With Marcus Stroman moving on, Imanaga was Chicago’s second-biggest offseason addition (behind Counsell) and will slot in near or at the top of the rotation.
Essentially, the Cubs are bringing back the same team it fielded a year ago, but they’re hoping to add a few more key pieces before camp breaks.
It’s not the first time Cubs fans go into a camp with high hopes, but this feels different, especially if Chicago can re-sign Cody Bellinger. The MVP of this team could end up being agent Scott Boras, whose clients include Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery.
Bellinger is the big free agent fish, but the Cubs are in on the entire Boras school. Any combination that includes Bellinger will make this team a contender. But until those dominoes fall, there remains more questions than answers.
Win total: 83.5
Cincinnati Reds (+410, FanDuel)
The Reds are an interesting choice at those odds. A late-season swoon made them miss the playoffs by just two games, but they clearly are an ascending team with potential superstar power.
As rookie Elly De La Cruz went last season, so did the Reds. The scorching start to his career when he was called up in early June coincided with a hot start for Cincinnati, which was 10 games over .500 on the final day of July. The Reds finished 82-80 with De La Cruz struggling down the stretch.
After working with their budding superstar throughout the offseason, the Reds are expecting big things from him in his sophomore campaign.
Starting pitching was a huge problem for this team in 2023. The Reds added Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez in free agency. Both should help bolster a starting rotation that had the third-highest ERA (5.43) in baseball last season, putting constant high-leverage pressure on a bullpen that was a team strength.
No doubt, the Reds are youthful, but many of their young players got valuable experience in 2023, and the team is counting on that to make their own leap forward.
Win total: 81.5
Milwaukee Brewers (+800, Caesars)
The Brewers believe in continuity more than any team in baseball. That’s why they promoted longtime bench coach Pat Murphy to replace Counsell as manager. Murphy inherits a very different type of team than Counsell has had in the past.
It’s much younger and with less emphasis on starting pitching and much more on offense. The carryover part of the team that should still be consistently dominant is the bullpen, where Devin Williams and Abner Uribe will anchor the late innings again with their filthy stuff.
The starting pitching could be this team’s downfall. Corbin Burnes was traded to Baltimore and Brandon Woodruff is a free agent after a shoulder injury to his throwing arm cost him the 2024 season (and likely millions of dollars). The Brewers are counting on their shoestring budget shopping in the offseason to fill some of the massive void at the top of the rotation.
They did end up spending the money saved by Burnes’ exit, a good chunk on first baseman Rhys Hoskins and DH Gary Sanchez, a duo that should add some much-needed pop to the middle of the order.
“They’ll still be a factor in the NL Central even without Burnes,” an NL executive told MLB.com. “That’s a good team. Hoskins should help that lineup if he’s healthy.”
The wild card is Jackson Chourio, MLB’s No. 2-ranked prospect who signed an eight-year, $82M contract in December (unprecedented for a player who has yet to see his first pitch in the bigs) that all but guarantees him an opening day spot on the team.
Win total: 77.5
The teenage phenom has arrived
@Bryanchourio11 pic.twitter.com/C5MmgeeFR8
— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) February 15, 2024
Pittsburgh Pirates (+2500, bet365)
The Pirates thought they were getting Hoskins before the first baseman signed with the Brewers. It was that kind of offseason for Pittsburgh.
The team opened camp desperate for starting pitching even after adding Josh Fleming this week. This is probably not the time to fill out your rotation, but that’s where the Pirates are at.
Lacking a significant signing or two before the season starts, the Pirates will lean on their bullpen again.
With Aroldis Chapman’s signing, it looks like Pittsburgh is taking a similar approach that the Brewers and Reds will take in 2023 – young roster, timely hitting and a strong bullpen that will need to clean up messes left by the starters.
Win total: 75.5
Pick to win NL Central
The Cardinals’ odds don’t match the talent on the roster, and age could end up being the team’s downfall again.
The Cubs will get much more out of their players simply by adding Counsell. They’re an interesting pick, but until Bellinger – and maybe another Boras client – are in the fold, we’re not jumping in yet.
In a division that is up for grabs, why not Cincinnati? I think this team is still a year or two away, but when things finally come together, watch out.
The Pirates aren’t devoid of talent, but their starting rotation is a disaster.
That leaves us with the Brewers. They’re not going to be under .500. I think their win total and projected fourth-place finish is a reflection of the change at manager and the top of their rotation. No doubt, big losses.
But Milwaukee always finds a way to be in the mix. That’s an organizational thing that starts with a front office that knows what kind of players fit the Brewers’ system and a coaching staff that consistently puts the team in position to win.
I’d hit the over hard on their win total. Murphy is an excellent coach who has managed before, and Chourio is a difference-maker, even at just 20 years old.
They’ll hit enough this year to make up for their questionable starting pitching behind Freddy Peralta, and they have a bullpen that might be the best in baseball.
- The pick: Brewers to win NL Central (+800, Caesars)
