The Chicago White Sox and their American League Central opponents open the 2024 MLB regular season in a month.
While late free-agency additions can alter win totals between now and then, for the most part things are pretty set.
Let’s take a closer look at three projections in the division that appear exploitable from a futures betting perspective.
2024 AL Central win totals
- Minnesota Twins: Over 86.5 (-114), Under 86.5 (-106)
- Detroit Tigers: Over 80.5 (-115), Under 80.5 (-105)
- Cleveland Guardians: Over 77.5 (-110), Under 77.5 (-110)
- Kansas City Royals: Over 72.5 (-115), Under 72.5 (-105)
- Chicago White Sox: Over 63.5 (-110), Under 63.5 (-110)
Odds via FanDuel
2024 AL Central best bets
Chicago White Sox (63.5)
The White Sox dropped from 81 victories in 2022 to only 61 last season.
To hit the over on their 63.5 victory total this season we’re looking for Chicago to lose fewer than 98 games.
The pitching staff has taken a hit over the last few seasons as right-hander Dylan Cease took a step backward last season by posting a 7-9 record and 4.58 ERA.
Cease ranked eighth in MLB in strikeouts with 214, but the Sox pitching staff put together a 4.87 ERA, which was third-highest in the American League.
Cease has drawn interest on the trade market, most notably by the Yankees. While that would hurt the top of Chicago’s rotation, getting multiple players in return would fill holes at other positions and provide health throughout the roster.
Chicago went 14-32 down the stretch last year to finish with 101 losses, but with expectations this low, it’s a good idea to go the other way, especially in a division that isn’t top-heavy.
While it would surprise no one if the Sox finished in the basement of the AL central this season, they should be able to muster 65 wins..
Cleveland Guardians (78.5)
The Guardians are going through a transition as longtime manager Terry Francona announced his retirement in the offseason.
Cleveland is coming off a third-place finish in the division, while trying to avoid back-to-back losing seasons for the first time since 2009-10.
Veteran catcher Stephen Vogt took over for Francona as Cleveland possesses solid arms in rotation led by Shane Bieber, Tanner Bibee and Triston McKenzie.
All-Star third baseman Jose Ramirez compiled 172 hits, the second-highest season total of his 11-year career.
Cleveland hit the fewest home runs among AL teams in 2023, but the Guardians also struck out the fewest times, as they put the ball in play consistently.
It won’t be easy to follow Francona, but Vogt should have enough pitching and offense to at least finish at the .500 mark.
Minnesota Twins (86.5)
The Twins are the defending AL Central champions, albeit at 87-75, which was the worst record of any division champ last year.
Taking away the shortened 2020 campaign, Minnesota has won more than 86 games only twice in the last 12 seasons.
Minnesota tied World Series champion Texas for the most home runs in the AL last season, as 12 players hit at least 10 dingers.
Veteran right-hander Sonny Gray departed for St. Louis in the offseason, but the Twins are still led by Pablo Lopez, who ranked second in the AL in strikeouts.
The AL Central owned four teams with losing records last season, but Minnesota didn’t dominate by any stretch.
The Twins will still be competitive and probably finish with a winning record, but Minnesota should see a slight regression and finish in the low 80s in victories.
