One of the more competitive divisions in baseball over the last several seasons has been the National League Central, and this season doesn’t appear as if it will be any different.
In preseason projections, only 10 games separate first place (St. Louis) from last (Pittsburgh), and only five games among the top three.
In other words, the NL Central is up for grabs again.
Let’s take a closer look at three projections in the division that appear exploitable from a futures betting perspective.
2024 NL Central win totals
- St. Louis Cardinals: Over 85.5 wins (-105), Under 85.5 wins (-115)
- Chicago Cubs: Over 83.5 (-115), Under 83.5 (-105)
- Cincinnati Reds: Over 80.5 (-105), Under 80.5 (-115)
- Milwaukee Brewers: Over 77.5 (-115), Under 77.5 (-105)
- Pittsburgh Pirates: Over 75.5 (-110), Under 75.5 (-110)
Odds via FanDuel
2024 NL Central best bets
Milwaukee Brewers over 77.5 wins
The Brewers captured the NL Central title last season with a 92-70 mark before getting knocked out by the eventual NL champion Arizona Diamondbacks.
Milwaukee went through some massive changes in the offseason, as longtime manager Craig Counsell departed for the Chicago Cubs. Former Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes was dealt to the Baltimore Orioles, but the Brewers signed former Phillies slugger Rhys Hoskins to fill a void at first base and install a big bat in the middle of the order.
Freddy Peralta will be the ace of this staff after delivering 12 wins and 210 strikeouts last season, while outfielder Christian Yelich is coming off his best offensive season since 2019.
However, this is a huge drop in wins for a team that comfortably won the division last season.
You have to go back to the 2016 season for the last time Milwaukee finished under .500. They’re win total is 4.5 games under.
Chicago Cubs over 83.5 wins
The Cubs were on the verge of the playoffs last season but couldn’t finish the job as they were left out with an 83-79 record.
Chicago seemed like it was on the uptick with manager David Ross, but in a shocking twist, the Cubs seized Counsell from the Brewers to be the missing piece to move to the top of the NL Central.
Justin Steele was in the NL Cy Young discussion before a couple of poor starts late in the season eliminated him. He finished with a 16-5 record with an ERA of 3.06, while striking out 176 batters.
It will be interesting to see who else steps up in the rotation this season, while the offense received a major boost by re-signing former MVP Cody Bellinger to a new contract.
Chicago sat at 76-64 on Sept. 6 last season before dropping 15 of its final 22 games. If the Cubs can put together another strong start and avoid a late meltdown, they have an excellent opportunity to finish over their win total.
Cincinnati Reds under 80.5 wins
The Reds were one of the surprises in the National League last season, putting together a 12-game winning streak in June to put themselves in the playoff race.
Although Cincinnati fell short of the postseason, it still accomplished a winning record at 82-80 following a 100-loss campaign in 2022.
The Reds undoing was their starting rotation, which was among the worst in baseball with a combined 4.83 ERA and an NL-leading 613 walks.
Elly De La Cruz burst onto the scene with plenty of excitement by stealing 35 bases and legging out seven triples. However, his batting average closed at .235 and he hit only two home runs in the final 33 games.
The Reds should not fall back toward the bottom of the division, but reaching .500 could be asking too much.
