Commercial Content. 21+. Action Network is the official betting partner of the Chicago Tribune.
The Chicago Bears haven’t won the NFC North since 2018, and that divisional title was their only one since 2010.
The Bears have the NFL’s fifth-worst record (63-100) over the past 10 seasons.
However, there’s a new air of excitement in Chicago with the recent selection of quarterback Caleb Williams as the first overall pick. Can he lead the team to a divisional title in his rookie season? Let’s break it down.
2024 NFC North futures betting
Odds to win NFC North in 2024
- Detroit Lions +130
- Green Bay Packers +210
- Chicago Bears +375
- Minnesota Vikings +750
Odds via BetMGM
A new era in Chicago
The Bears are the second-oldest NFL franchise, but their history has largely been defined by futility at the quarterback position. They have experienced only 12 seasons with a quarterback who has exceeded 3,000 passing yards and no one has ever reached the 4,000-yard plateau in Chicago. Erik Kramer threw for a franchise-high 3,838 yards in 1995. For reference, 14 quarterbacks went over that number last season alone.
Williams is poised to become Chicago’s best quarterback in franchise history as soon as his rookie season. The 2022 Heisman winner threw for 93 touchdowns to just 14 interceptions over three seasons at USC.
He will be supported by an elite crop of skill position talent in his rookie season. D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen ranked in the top 12 among qualified receivers in yards per route run last season, per Pro Football Focus. Meanwhile, rookie first-round pick Rome Odunze offers tremendous contested-catch ability and underrated route-running savvy.
Chicago also ranked in the top five in both pass-block and run-block win rate last season and return four of five starters upfront.
Finally, the Bears have a talented trio of running backs and a reliable tight end in Cole Kmet. New offensive coordinator Shane Waldron has plenty to work with in his first season in Chicago.
An improving defense
Coach Matt Eberflus arrived in Chicago in 2022, and he needed time to establish a culture and identity, particularly on defense. A former defensive coordinator, Eberflus runs a 4-3 Tampa 2 scheme requiring specific players at certain positions. We finally saw that defense begin to take shape toward the end of last season.
The midseason trade acquisition of pass rusher Montez Sweat directly coincided with a defensive breakout in Chicago. Sweat arrived in Week 9; from then on, Chicago ranked fifth in defensive EPA/play. There’s no guarantee the 10-week sample will carry over into the upcoming season, but the Bears have several ascending young talents on that side of the ball.
Re-signing Jaylon Johnson was a crucial piece of business for Chicago after he allowed the lowest passer rating in the NFL last season and had four interceptions, six pass breakups and just one touchdown allowed. Johnson is joined by young talents Tyrique Stevenson, Kyler Gordon and Jaquan Brisker in the secondary.
NFC North best bet
Despite finishing last place in the NFC North last year, the Bears played stretches of playoff-caliber football. A 2-6 record in one-score games underscored their inability to finish games. They would have been 10-6-1 last year if games ended after three quarters, and they were the worst team in the NFL by total EPA in the fourth quarter.
One benefit of that last-place finish is a favorable schedule in 2024. In fact, Sharp Football rates Chicago’s schedule as the third-easiest in the NFL in terms of projected win totals for opponents. Even if they can’t fully fix their fourth-quarter woes, that schedule should enable the Bears opportunities to build leads throughout the season.
The Bears got a significant upgrade at quarterback and offensive coordinator this offseason. They also added Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze, rounding out what could be the most improved offense in the NFL.
If Eberflus’ defense can maintain its late-season surge from last year, the sky is the limit for the Bears this season and an NFC North title is well within reach.
