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If you are a golf fan, you are excited for this week with the second major tournament on tap.
While the four majors are always the most intriguing tournaments, they have even more appeal given the landscape of professional golf these days.
This week’s PGA Championship will have a maximum of 156 golfers in the field, including 16 previous champions. Furthermore, 16 LIV Tour players are expected to tee it up at Valhalla Golf Club.
Valhalla is a par-71 that stretches over 7,600 yards. All three of the par-3s are more than 190 yards and six of the par-4s are over 470 yards.
This is one of the longest courses these golfers will play all year and it could play even longer with rain in the forecast. Driving distance played a big factor at Valhalla in 2014 (the last time the course held the PGA Championship), and I expect that to be the case again this week.
As with most majors, this is going to be a complete test of skill. This course will expose any weaknesses, so focusing on golfers who are solid all-around isn’t a bad strategy.
In addition to distance off the tee, strokes-gained approach and bogey avoidance, I am looking at a few other factors. Ideally, I want to target golfers who have a good track record in majors, who play well in strong fields and who prefer long and difficult courses.
We have no shortage of storylines heading into the week, including:
- Scottie Scheffler’s first start since his wife gave birth to their first child.
- Rory McIlroy is looking for his third straight PGA Tour victory. He’s coming off back-to-back victories at the Zurich Classic and the Wells Fargo Championship.
- Defending champion Brooks Koepka is seeking to win the same major in back-to-back years for the third time in his career.
- Jordan Spieth is aiming to complete a career grand slam. He won the U.S. Open and Masters in 2015 and The Open Championship in 2017.
Spoiler alert, one of these golfers is on my outright card this week. Let’s get into it.
2024 PGA Championship betting card
Brooks Koepka to win (+1600 at DraftKings)
There have been patterns throughout Koepka’s career that are important to note.
The first is that he usually contends in majors when he plays well in the event leading up to it. The last time he teed it up was two weeks ago at LIV Singapore and he won by four strokes.
And when he wins a major, he has always defended it the next year. He won the U.S. Open in 2017 and 2018, and the PGA Championship in 2018 and 2019 before winning the tournament again last year.
He has a chance to do something really special this week. He’s a bomber off the tee, an elite iron player and he’s one of the most clutch putters in his generation.
Bryson DeChambeau to win (+2800 at FanDuel)
Another LIV Tour golfer, DeChambeau plays his best on long courses with thick rough. He won his first major at Winged Foot (2020 U.S. Open), which shares some similarities to Valhalla.
DeChambeau is one of the longest hitters in the field, was in contention at the Masters, and he’s had a strong year on LIV.
He is a solid all-around golfer who benefits from the thick rough given his strength and the fact that he’s hitting shorter irons than most of his competitors. That sets him up well for Valhalla.
Justin Thomas top-10 finish (+475 at bet365)
Thomas will be looking to add a third PGA Championship trophy to his mantle this week. While I’m not betting him outright, I do like his chances of being in the mix on Sunday.
His recent form doesn’t really stand out, but he has quietly posted top-12 finishes in nine of his last 14 starts worldwide.
He’s one of the best in the field tee-to-green, which is usually the most important statistic in majors. It’s also worth noting that this is a home game for him, as he grew up in Louisville.
Cameron Young top-10 finish (+450 at DraftKings)
While his around-the-green game can be spotty at times, he’s one of the longest hitters in the field and is one of the best on approach with long irons.
He also seems to play his best on difficult courses and that’s evident in his five top-10 finishes at the majors in his young career.
This is a perfect course fit for Young. Don’t be surprised to see him near the top of the leaderboard on Sunday.
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