Betting the Super Bowl can feel overwhelming for any seasoned veteran, let alone a novice better.
For example, the BetRivers sportsbook has a menu of roughly 900 different options for Super Bowl LVIII between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.
With such a broad offering, I’d have to think that keeping tabs on everything is a bit burdensome for the sportsbooks. Yet, while the bookmakers have paid close attention to the point spread, adjusting San Francisco from -2.5 to -1.5 and then back to -2.5, we haven’t seen any movement on the total, which has stayed flat at 47.5.
Although that lack of movement might suggest bettors are fairly divided on the total, I think it speaks to the balanced offenses we’ll see from both teams on Sunday.
Generally, when I think of balance, I think of both teams using their rushing attack to control the game. And despite sportsbooks getting an early jump in posting their lines, bettors can still find a ton of value in the rushing props market.
Here are two I particularly like for Sunday’s game.
Super Bowl LVIII Player Props
Brock Purdy over 12.5 rushing yards (-112 at BetRivers)
After defeating Green Bay and Detroit, Purdy will face a much more potent Kansas City defense in the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs can create havoc in the backfield with its front four as they finished second in Pressure Rate (27.8%) and third in Hurry Rate (9.8%) during the regular season, according to Pro-Football-Reference.
Kansas City also has the fifth-best pass defense based on FTN Fantasy’s Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric.
As a result, I suspect Purdy will have less time to go through his progressions in this game and might have to tuck the ball at times to evade the Kansas City rush.
In these high-leverage games, quarterbacks are more likely to use their legs with so much on the line.
We’ve seen Purdy scramble at least five times in both postseason games, and he rushed for 48 yards in the NFC Championship against the Lions.
The Chiefs ranked 24th in rushing yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks, which could suggest some correlation with a successful pass rush.
Deebo Samuel over 2.5 rushing attempts (-162 at BetRivers)
I’m willing to look past the juice with Samuel’s attempts prop because I think there’s a very high likelihood it cashes. Coaches are often known to add new wrinkles to their Super Bowl game plan, but Samuel’s involvement in the running game shouldn’t surprise anyone.
The fifth-year pro is the most dynamic offensive player on the 49ers and can be an instant game-changer whenever the ball is in his hands. As a result, the 49ers like to get him more touches in these high-leverage games.
Utilizing Samuel in the backfield is another way to get him the ball if Purdy struggles against the Chiefs in the passing game.
Explosive plays can be a backbreaker for even the best defenses, and that’s what Samuel brings to the table. In seven of his last eight playoff games, Samuel registered at least three carries.
This streak of three or more carries would likely still be active had he not gotten injured early in the game against the Packers.
