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The rubber match of an entertaining series between the Giants and Cubs takes place Wednesday afternoon and oddsmakers are expecting plenty of action with a betting total of 11 runs.
Wrigley Field is expected to hold highly favorable conditions for run production, with projected 10-11 mph winds blowing out to centerfield for first pitch.
Kyle Hendricks, who gets the start for the Cubs after a monthlong stint in the bullpen, will look to improve on his ugly 8.20 ERA. The Giants are expected to make Spencer Howard (4.02 ERA, 15 2/3 IP) their bulk pitcher on Wednesday behind opening pitcher Erik Miller.
Giants vs. Cubs odds
- Moneyline: Giants -110, Cubs -115
- Run Line: Giants -1.5 (+140), Cubs +1.5 (-165)
- Total: Over 11 (-105), Under 11 (-115)
Odds via BetMGM
Giants vs. Cubs prediction
While Hendricks hasn’t started a game in over a month, he was successful in throwing four scoreless innings of long relief last time out versus the Cardinals. He owns an ERA 0.00 across 8.2 innings of work in June.
Still, over Hendricks last four outings, he has allowed an xBA of .285 and struck out only 11% of batters faced. He owns a 5.63 xERA this season with an xFIP of 4.39. Batters have hit .351 versus Hendricks at Wrigley Field this season, and it will be tough for him to improve upon that mark in Wednesday’s matchup.
The Giants own a 10th-best wRC+ of 108 and a woBA of .316 over the last 30 days .
The surprising dominance of Heliot Ramos has been a key reason for the Giants’ strong offensive splits, as the outfielder has slugged .560 and owns an OBP of .394. Over the last two weeks, Ramos owns an OPS of 1.157. For the season, he has a 56.3% hard-hit rate across 160 plate appearances and owns a 17.7% barrel rate.
While Ramos has hit to better splits against lefties, he still has hit to soft-contact just 15.7% of the time against right-handed pitching. Hendricks has allowed a 5.28 FIP to right-handed batters and a WHIP of 1.71.
Howard has pitched to a 5.39 xFIP this season and an xERA of 4.56. He owns a Stuff+ rating of 89 and a Location+ rating of 102. In Triple-A this season, he had an ERA of 5.90 across 39 2/3 innings. Logan Webb’s strong seven innings on Tuesday has the Giants’ bullpen in solid shape, and we likely won’t see Howard go more than once through the order.
Giants vs. Cubs best bet
The sides on this game look to be accurately priced. A bullpen day for the Giants is not overly convincing, but the they should be well situated to a do damage off of Hendricks.
There does look to be value targeting Ramos to record over 1.5 total bases at -120 or better.
Righties have seen Hendricks well this season, and Ramos — hitting second — should receive five at-bats. This game should be littered with extra-base hits and presents a great opportunity for Ramos to continue his incredible start.
Best bet: Heliot Ramos over 1.5 total bases (-115, bet365)
