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Before this season, few fans or pundits saw it coming, but we’re past the midway point and the Chicago Cubs are currently sitting at the bottom of the NL Central and 5.5 games away from a playoff spot.
They’re in the middle of a three-game series with a Baltimore Orioles team that could not be in much better shape, as they sit atop the American League East with a division lead growing by the day as the Yankees continue to slip.
This home series for Baltimore should be a straightforward one in theory, but could the Orioles be looking ahead toward their big visit from the Yankees before the All-Star break?
After Chicago took the first game dominantly, let’s see if the O’s can get back on track Wednesday night at Camden Yards with their ace on the mound.
Cubs vs. Orioles odds
- Moneyline: Cubs +155 | Orioles -190
- Run Line: Cubs +1.5 (-125) | Orioles -1.5 (+105)
- Total: Over 8.5 runs: -115 | Under 8.5 runs: -105
Odds via BetMGM
Cubs. vs. Orioles prediction
It’s a true battle of the brand-new aces, as Chicago’s Shota Imanaga takes on Corbin Burnes — pitchers who weren’t on their current team’s roster a year ago.
Imanaga, an MLB rookie, came across from Japanese baseball, while Burnes made an offseason move after spending his first six major league seasons in Milwaukee.
Imanaga settled into his new surroundings spectacularly. He didn’t allow an earned run until his fourth start, and owned an ERA of 0.84 through nine outings. However, it’s been a bit rougher since.
He allowed seven runs in his 10th start, and after a couple of recent clunkers, his ERA is now up to 3.16. It’s still a great figure for a debut MLB season but nowhere near where it was weeks ago. The question is whether he’s working through a rough patch or if the league has figured him out.
As for Burnes, any questions about him switching teams or leagues has been effectively answered. He’s leapt from the lukewarm NL Central to the always-competitive AL East without missing a beat, providing the Orioles with a much-needed veteran arm as they look to break through and become champions.
Unsurprisingly, the left-handed Imanaga has performed better against lefty bats, of which the Orioles lineup features plenty, including star shortstop Gunnar Henderson and cleanup man Ryan O’Hearn. Both of these hitters have a significant platoon split, making this matchup a potentially tough one for Baltimore. The Orioles’ switch hitters do prefer to face southpaws, but the lineup will feature more gaps than usual.
The right-handed Burnes also does better against left-handed batters, putting up a notable reverse split. The Chicago lineup is pretty balanced, and core hitters Cody Bellinger and Michael Busch display reverse splits as well, so it’s hard to know how this corner of the matchup will shake out.
It’s also worth noting that Burnes performs extremely well even when facing hitters for the third time through the order, while two solid trips is all Imanaga can usually provide.
Cubs. vs. Orioles pick
Chicago’s bullpen is below league average by just about all metrics, so if Burnes can limit the Cubs lineup and the Orioles can work the count against Imanaga to force him out of the game with a few innings to go, they should be able to scrape out a low-scoring bounce-back win even if they don’t manage much offense in the first few innings.
Picks: Under 8.5 total runs (-115), Orioles moneyline (-168)
