ST. LOUIS — Dansby Swanson knows his offensive production this season has not been at the level he expects or what the Chicago Cubs need.
Before delving into his performance, though, Swanson wryly offered an observation.
“Production would be a very kind word for you to use,” he said.
Swanson entered Friday’s series opener against the St. Louis Cardinals riding a mini hot streak, collecting four hits in his previous two games, including a double and home run.
While it’s an encouraging sign — especially after tallying two more hits and an RBI in a 5-1 victory over the Cardinals, the Cubs’ fifth straight win and seventh in eight games — Swanson’s offensive numbers have fallen short of what the organization envisioned two years after he signed a seven-year, $177 million contract.
Through 83 games, Swanson owns a .209 average, .282 on-base percentage and .634 OPS. His 81 weighted runs created plus (wRC+) is 11th-worst among 139 qualified hitters this year.
“There’s no way to cut around, it’s been a struggle,” Swanson told the Tribune on Thursday. “Never fully felt like I’ve gotten going. There’s a couple games and series here and there where it’s like, that’s feeling right. The numbers show that. So it’s like, all right, we’re going in the right direction, and then it would kind of sputter.
“That’s challenging, it’s challenging mentally. Like, it’s hard, but at the same token, that’s why to me there is a lot of confidence moving forward because I haven’t hit a stride yet and so that means it’s coming at some point.”
Bad luck on balls in the air driven to the big part of the field hasn’t helped Swanson; however, some underlying issues go beyond that. His ground-ball rate is a career-high 50.7%, nearly a 7% increase from last year, while he’s pulling the ball at the highest clip of his career (48.8%).
“I don’t even know any of those things,” Swanson said. “I go based off a lot of how I feel and seeing results. It’s just been one of those first halves.”
Hitting coach Dustin Kelly attributes a slight spike in overall exit velocity to Swanson’s ground-ball rate. In an effort to create more line drives and elevate the ball more consistently, Swanson has been working with Cubs hitting coaches on where he is during his swing when his front foot hits the ground.
“There’s some direction issues that he falls into where the hips spin a little bit faster, and then the bat kind of comes across and not through the zone as long as what he’s normally accustomed to,” Kelly said. “We’re just staying through with our drill package and trying to make minor, little adjustments and not wholesale changes.”
Fastballs have also posed a problem for Swanson. His .187 average against four-seam fastballs is the worst of his career, down from .291 in 2023, and when he makes contact against the pitch, he isn’t doing as much damage as he has historically, posting a .427 slugging percentage, the lowest since his rookie season.
Those struggles against four-seamers can be partially traced to how teams are attacking Swanson. Pitchers have been overwhelmingly slider-heavy. Among the 254 major-league hitters who have seen at least 750 pitches this year, Swanson is tied for ninth in most sliders faced, accounting for 22.3% of the pitches he has seen. They’re getting him to chase those sliders, too, with a 28.3% strikeout rate, .167 average and .185 slugging percentage.
A heavy dose of off-speed stuff can cause a hitter to get caught in between.
“They don’t want to make mistakes over the middle of the plate, so he gets few pitches on the inner third or middle of the plate, and it’s hard when you don’t do damage on those and you miss those,” Kelly said. “You kind of think, ‘Oh, man, that was my one shot.’
“So just keeping him positive and knowing that he’s going to see pitches on the outer half of the zone, staying square, trying to drive the ball through right-center, and then he’ll react to the stuff middle in and not just get caught up in only seeing pitches away.”
Even for a veteran in his ninth big-league season, the mental part of a prolonged slump has been the hardest part.
“Everyone’s probably had doubts in their career, and so you start battling your own things and sometimes the best thing to do is get out of your own way,” Swanson said. “Guys have been so good in here being able to pick me up and speak confidently about me, to me. Obviously I would love to be having a career offensive year, but there’s other ways I can help us win games.”
With his offense in a lull, Swanson is trying to make an impact on games and help the Cubs (46-49) win in other ways, especially with his defense and winning habits.
Manager Craig Counsell looks at Swanson’s defense during stretches like this and is proud of his performance at shortstop, calling him exceptional at the position the last six to seven weeks. To Counsell, that indicates Swanson is handling his business and not letting his offensive struggles affect other parts of his game.
“The offensive stuff will happen,” Swanson said, “instead of being so focused and caught up on your worth being wrapped up in a box score of how you swung the bat that day.”
