Vice president of scouting Dan Kantrovitz and the Chicago Cubs had a clear-cut plan entering the 2024 MLB draft.
They expected to be hitter-heavy on Days 1 and 2 for rounds 1-10, and then shift their focus to pitchers on Day 3 during rounds 11-20.
“I think we obtained the right balance based on our assessment of the talent, the draft pool, as well fulfilling whatever needs we might have in the system,” Kantrovitz said Tuesday at the conclusion of the three-day draft.
Kantrovitz doesn’t expect any surprises, anticipating all 20 players the Cubs selected will sign. The Cubs ultimately chose nine pitchers (six right-handers and three left-handers), seven infielders, two outfielders and two catchers.
Here are four takeaways from the Cubs’ 2024 draft.
1. They went college heavy with their picks.
By the time the draft ended, only three of the Cubs’ 20 picks were high school players: shortstops Ronny Cruz (Miami Christian School in Florida) and Ty Southisene (Basic High School in Nevada) in the third and fourth rounds, respectively, and outfielder Eli Lovich (Blue Valley West High School in Kansas) in the 11th round.
It marked the second straight year the Cubs’ draft skewed toward college players, something Kantrovitz described as not the organization’s philosophy, but a challenge that comes with taking prep players because of how much they tend to cost to sign.
“In certain rounds, your options are limited,” Kantrovitz said. “You try to be in position to draft and sign as many high school players as possible. You just at some point run out of room with the cap.”
Even with taking just three prep players, Kantrovitz expects the Cubs’ bonus pool allotment to skew toward them as much as any team. Lovich will require a “pretty substantial investment” to buy out his commitment to Arkansas and with that, like the player a lot. Kantrovitz credited area scout Ty Nichols for “raising the flag early” on Lovich, identifying him as one of the better bats he saw all spring in general, beyond just the high school demographic.
The 6-foot-4 left-handed hitting Lovich, rated the No. 1 outfielder and No. 3 overall recruit in Kansas by Perfect Game, posted a .402 average, .482 on-base percentage and 1.245 OPS with eight doubles, six triples, five home runs and 15 stolen bases his senior year.
Kantrovitz said Lovich put on a show in batting practice during a pre-draft workout at the Cubs complex in Mesa, Ariz., shagging fly balls and participating in high-performance testing.
“We’re pretty excited to watch his body just transform in the next couple of years and hopefully have that carryover to how hard he’s hitting the ball and some power numbers too,” he said. “But he’s a pretty exciting one.”
2. Valuing performance against the best competition.
One common theme among many of the Cubs’ selections is their participation and success playing in the Cape Cod League.
It’s a group that includes Florida State third baseman Cam Smith (first round), College of Charleston third baseman Cole Mathis (second round), University of California-San Diego third baseman Matt Halbach (10th round), Grand Canyon right-hander Daniel Avitia (12th round), Lipscomb left-hander Hayden Frank (15th round), Georgia Southern right-hander Ben Johnson (17th round) and Indiana right-hander Brayden Risedorph (20th round).
“The trick is to try to get as much bulk as you can from a performance standpoint, from a sort of a statistical standpoint, and then also be able to have context with that bulk,” Kantrovitz said. “I think the way in which we can try to do that the most effectively is if it’s against the best competition, and that tends to happen in the Cape League and also in the SEC and some of the other major conferences. When we can get players that have bulk in both, it gives us that much more confidence that those numbers are going to translate, and then our equivalencies end up translating to what we might expect them to do.
“When they get into Low A and High A, many of the same players that they’re competing against were those players that they were competing against in the Cape League or the SEC, so you just kind of have a better idea of where their floor is.”
3. Cubs land one of the best defensive catchers in the country.
Sometimes future major-league caliber catchers can be difficult to find in the draft.
When teams do identify some within the draft pool, it can be challenging to predict when they might go off the board, Kantrovitz said.
“And if you’re a team that takes them, that means you probably draft them a little bit earlier than teams would expect,” he added.
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It makes the pick of University of California-San Diego catcher Ariel Armas notable, particularly given his defensive pedigree. Between Armas’ defensive metrics and his accolades, his work behind the plate was considered one of the best in the country.
Armas won the Gold Glove among Division I catchers last month after being named the 2024 West Coast Conference Defensive Player of the Year, and was one of 16 semifinalists for the 2024 Buster Posey National Collegiate Catcher of the Year Award. Armas, 21, owned a .998 fielding percentage while recording 15 caught stealing and led the country with 18.69 Defensive Runs Saved — 3.58 more runs saved than the next closest player.
“He’s got a cannon of an arm and just looks really natural back there and he’s got pretty exceptional framing skills,” Kantrovitz said. “And because of this, when he put his framing, his caught stealing, his blocking, his receiving, when you put all those up against the other catchers both analytically and from a scouting standpoint, he stacks up pretty well.”
4. Plenty of slug can be found among the college bats.
The Cubs are infusing more slug into their system.
Among the nine college position players they drafted, a couple certainly aren’t lacking thump.
Smith and Mathis — their top two picks — both feature the type of upside and power potential that’s ideal in the first two rounds. Smith, 21, had a .654 slugging percentage and 39 extra-base hits as a draft-eligible sophomore at FSU, while Mathis, who turns 21 on July 25, recorded a .650 slugging percentage 33 XBH in his junior season at Charleston.
“When you dig deeper, his chase rates, his in-zone contact rates, his exit velocities, his ability to really just hit the ball hard and in the air, keep the ball off the ground, which if you’re looking at that from a performance standpoint that’s indicated just by some of the ground ball-fly ball rates, and he seems to do it fairly effortlessly too,” Kantrovitz said of Mathis.
“He’s a pretty strong kid and he’s got a natural swing plane that lends itself to consistently hitting the ball in the air and then with his with his size and strength, he ends up putting pretty good charge into it.”
Nicholls State first baseman Edgar Alvarez (eighth round) has put up dominant numbers, led by a .405/.514/.678 slash line. He hit 21 doubles and 13 home runs in 58 games, and has cut down his strikeout rate while improving his walk rate from his junior to senior season. Although he is on the older side — he turns 24 in February — Alvarez, who also won the D-1 Gold Glove this year at his position, was area scout Will Swoope’s “gut-feel guy” as a player who has baseball card numbers that jump off the page, Kantrovitz said.
“He has a beautiful, pure swing,” Kantrovitz said. “As opposed to, like, just some gargantuan exit velos or gaudy numbers, which actually he has both at times. … I think he could end up being a sleeper.”
University of California-Santa Barbara outfielder Ivan Brethowr and his 6-foot-6, 250-pound frame produce strong exit velocity and power to tap into. Brethowr, 21, connected for 10 doubles and 15 home runs this year, part of a .275 average, .405 OBP and .968 OPS in 50 games.
“When you have that base, it ends up being somebody that is also pretty exciting,” Kantrovitz said. “He’s a pretty well-balanced hitter in addition to having some some juice. It’s good decision-making, it’s good contact skills. It’s generally square contact in the air.”
