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With a limited slate Thursday night, all eyes were on the Cubs and Cardinals — and the longtime rivals most certainly put on a show. After an uncharacteristically tough start from Shota Imanaga, the Cubs were down 4-2 heading into the final frame, but they turned things around with a big ninth inning and a dramatic walk-off win.
After Chicago took the first installment of this four-game set at Wrigley Field, the season series is 6-4 in favor of St. Louis. This gives the Cubs life in the season series, but to come out on top in this rivalry for the second year in a row — and just the second time since 2017 — they’ll need to complete the weekend sweep as well.
On the surface, it seems like these two teams are having entirely different seasons. The Cubs were expected to be a playoff squad, but are dead last in the NL Central, while not much was expected of the Cardinals, who are currently second in the division.
However, only four games separate the two squads. In fact, the Cubs are closer to the Cardinals than St. Louis is to first-place Milwaukee (a deficit of 5.5 games). However, the Cardinals are just two games out of a wild-card spot, showing just how much there is for both teams to play for with about two months left in the regular season.
The Cubs just lost a series to the Reds before this one, so they’ll need to keep turning things around like they did on Thursday if they’re going to make a late-season push. Meanwhile, the Cardinals will want to get back to the form they showed in a nice series win over the Rangers just before this set.
With plenty on the line, even beyond the usual bragging rights between longtime rivals, let’s talk about what to expect in Friday night’s contest, including one way to bet the game.
Cardinals vs. Cubs odds
- Moneyline: Cardinals -112 | Cubs -104
- Run Line: Cardinals -1.5 (+150) | Cubs +1.5 (-182)
- Total: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)
Odds via FanDuel
Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction
At a glance, this pitching matchup feels very even, namely in terms of ERA, with both starters putting up impressive numbers in the low-3.00 range. However, if you pull back the curtain a bit, there’s a definite advantage in one direction.
Erick Fedde is having a veritable breakout year. After putting up ERAs over 5.00 in 2021 and 2022, he went over to Korea to play in 2023, and now suddenly is setting career-bests, by some margin, with an ERA of 3.11 and a WHIP of 1.142. His Statcast numbers are up in a big way too; he was bottom-five or 10 percentile in most metrics, and now is soundly above average nearly across the board.
Meanwhile, despite the solid ERA, Javier Assad’s own Statcast sheet shows a lot of blue. His WHIP of 1.352 isn’t what you want to see, although it is worth noting that he’s spent multiple years outperforming that metric by consistently stranding baserunners.
Making matters worse is Assad’s track record against the Cardinals this year. His first start in the rivalry saw him give up four earned runs in five innings of work, while he gave up three more, including two home runs, across just 2.1 innings in a real disaster just before the All-Star break.
Conversely, Fedde actually pitched against the Cubs before moving out of Chicago. With the White Sox, he gave up three earned runs throughout a five-inning outing in early June, although he did strike out seven batters and never surrendered a walk or home run.
Cardinals vs. Cubs pick
Regression to the mean almost always comes, so Assad’s profoundly hittable pitches have to get hit hard eventually — and it’s already happening a bit. Conversely, the league hasn’t had a great chance to figure out the reinvented Fedde after his return from a year abroad, and it doesn’t seem like he’ll be daunted by switching squads after he did so well with switching countries.
Pick: Cardinals Moneyline (-112 at FanDuel)
