When Ryan Poles announced his intention for the Chicago Bears to take the NFC North and “never give it back,” he understood the time and heavy lifting that was going to be involved.
What the general manager probably didn’t count on at the time was the division being the emerging juggernaut it is right now as the Bears, at long last, are on the upswing at 4-2, their best start through six games since they were 5-1 in 2020.
The current team has plenty to prove, but most likely will agree there’s a different feel now than there was in Matt Nagy’s third season, when those five wins were all by one score or less and four were by four points or fewer against mostly suspect competition. Matt Eberflus’ Bears, also in Year 3, have been beating up struggling opponents.
A six-game losing streak followed the 2020 Bears’ promising start. What happens in the weeks ahead will go a long way toward shaping the outcome of this season. The Bears are set to play again Oct. 27 at the Washington Commanders in a game the NFL flexed to the 3:25 p.m. national TV slot on CBS-2.
All four NFC North teams are above .500. According to the NFL, it’s the first time since the league went to eight four-team divisions in 2002 that four teams from the same circuit have had winning records entering Week 7. The AFC West has three teams with winning records — Kansas City Chiefs (5-0), Los Angeles Chargers (3-2) and Denver Broncos (4-3). No other division has more than two teams above .500.
The Minnesota Vikings (5-0) are arguably the biggest surprise in the league. The Detroit Lions (4-1) have picked up where they left off last season after reaching the NFC championship game, and next are the Green Bay Packers (4-2) and Bears.
The Vikings (plus-63), Lions (plus-60), Bears (plus-47) and Packers (plus-41) are the top four teams in the NFL in point differential and all rank in the top seven in turnover margin. They are a combined 16-4 in games against nondivision opponents. To be fair, that is one of the reasons the NFC North looks so good. Only one division game has been played to this point — the Vikings won 31-29 at Lambeau Field in Week 4 — and as these teams start playing each other, losses will begin to pile up. The AFC North also has had only one division game, but the NFC South (five), AFC West and AFC South (four each) have gotten rolling with rivalry games.
The Lions play at the Vikings (noon, Fox-32) in one of Sunday’s marquee games. The Lions will play at the Packers in Week 9, but those are the only NFC North games before Week 11, when the Bears play host to the Packers.
“This is all part of what the league wants to do,” said Ron Rivera, the former Commanders and Carolina Panthers coach who is now an NFL Network analyst. “What we’re doing is we’re creating hype. It’s been a lot of fun to watch. Do I think the NFC North can sustain this? No. They’ve got to play each other. They’re not going to all split the division games.”
The NFL has yet to have four teams from a division make the playoffs in the same season, but it went to the current 14-team structure — seven from each conference — in only 2020. There have been four instances of three teams from the same division reaching the postseason, most recently the AFC North last year when all but the Cincinnati Bengals (9-8) were playoff-bound.
The Bears are the the underdog in the division at sports books with the other three teams favored to make the playoffs. Fanatics sportsbook offered the following odds Friday.
To make the playoffs
- Vikings -700 yes, +450 no
- Lions -550 yes, +375 no
- Packers -180 yes, +140 no
- Bears +180 yes, -240 no
To win the NFC North
- Lions +125
- Vikings +145
- Packers +500
- Bears +1200
To win the NFC
- Lions +350 (1st in conference)
- Vikings +600 (3rd)
- Packers +850 (5th)
- Bears +2500 (10th)
To win the Super Bowl
- Lions +800 (2nd in the NFL)
- Vikings +1400 (5th)
- Packers +1800 (7th)
- Bears +5000 (15th)
Here are four questions to ponder with the thick of the NFC North schedule still a few weeks off.
1. Can the Lions withstand the loss of defensive end Aidan Hutchinson, who leads the NFL with 7½ sacks?
“The Lions offense, they have so many other things that work in their favor, that they may be able to overcome that,” said Rick Spielman, the former Vikings and Miami Dolphins general manager who was once a pro scout for the Bears. “I don’t know if they will make a major move for a pass rusher or not. That is not usually (GM) Brad Holmes’ MO.”
Rivera believes it is imperative Holmes, who has been draft-driven and particularly shrewd when it comes to free agency, shake the tree and see if there is a deal to be made for a skilled pass rusher. Hutchinson is out for the season with a broken leg.
“They have a couple weeks before the trade deadline to try to supplement it enough with someone, whoever that is, that can give them enough so they can still get to the Super Bowl,” said Ross Tucker, the CBS analyst who hosts a series of football podcasts. “As their roster currently is constituted, I just don’t see it. Yes, there have been teams that have overcome injuries to starting quarterbacks and they have won Super Bowls with a backup like Nick Foles (in Philadelphia). Foles caught lightning in a bottle in the playoffs. He played out of his mind.
“I don’t know that is going to happen for an edge rusher. And I would say Hutchinson, he’s not just their best defensive player, he’s their best played, period. And he was really the frontrunner for defensive player of the year. That is a lot to overcome that loss and it’s a shame.”
2. Can the Vikings remain the darlings of the league?
Sam Darnold was viewed as a bridge signing when the Vikings used the No. 10 pick in the 2024 draft on Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy. Some figured this would be the point in the season — with the Vikings coming off their bye — that the team might turn to the rookie.
But McCarthy suffered a season-ending knee injury in preseason, and Darnold, the No. 3 pick in the 2018 draft, is now with his fourth team. Darnold posted a passer rating over 100 in the first four games before a marginal showing in the 23-17 win against the Jets in London in Week 5.
The Vikings have the league’s No. 4 scoring defense (15.2 points per game) and coordinator Brian Flores seemingly comes up with ways to confuse opposing quarterbacks on a weekly basis.
“It seems like no one can figure out what the hell they’re doing — when they’re bringing pressure and not bringing pressure and the different combinations of coverages on the back end,” Spielman said. “Flores is not talked about enough and how good his defenses are and how he adjusts according to the offense they are playing. With Darnold, is he going to be the next kind of Baker Mayfield resurrection? There’s a long way to go yet.”
While some of their rivals have feasted on lower-tier competition, the Vikings have wins over the San Francisco 49ers, Houston Texans and Packers — and the first two came by a combined total of 33 points.
“The real surprise is Minnesota,” Tucker said. “I thought the Vikings would win six or seven games and I thought — for sure — they would be in the basement in the NFC North. That’s the real stunner and that’s what takes it from a good division to a great division and so far, at least, an all-time division.”
3. Will the Bears remain contenders as their schedule becomes more challenging?
“Caleb Williams, I don’t want to put him in the Hall of Fame yet, but from Week 1 to where he is now, and I understand that Jacksonville doesn’t have the greatest defense and neither does Carolina and there are going to be some ebbs and flows or ups and downs when he goes against some better defenses, but he looks more comfortable in the pocket,” Spielman said. “He’s getting through his progressions a lot better. He’s more efficient in the pocket.
“You’re seeing him step up in the pocket and then the relationship and rapport that he’s starting to build with all these receivers, you can see that chemistry coming. I think they’re starting to click. Defensively, I think they have been playing like a top-10 defense since Week 1. If I had one negative, I don’t think they have been consistent running the ball enough.”
Tests are coming for the Bears, who will play NFC North opponents in six of their final eight games. That has been the franchise’s undoing for quite some time. Since the Bears’ last playoff victory after the 2010 season, they are 27-51 (.346) against NFC North foes, including 5-1 when they won the crown in 2018.
4. Will the key for the Packers be a rebuilt defense?
The Packers have been a little under the radar in the division with the Vikings unbeaten, the Lions capturing national spotlight after falling one game short of the Super Bowl last season and the resurgence of the Bears.
The Packers won two games with Malik Willis at quarterback while Jordan Love recovered from a sprained left knee, and they’re still settling into a new system for coordinator Jeff Hafley. The Packers are second in the league with nine interceptions after getting only seven last season.
“The defense is vastly improved even though they’re giving up yardage,” Spielman said. “They seem to be more aggressive. With Love missing that time, he was a little rusty, but looks like he’s getting back to where we saw him at the second half of last year and they’ve got young weapons all over the place. I don’t think that is a huge surprise with Green Bay, especially because they were a playoff team a year ago.”
Unless there is great parity in the division games, it will be difficult for all four teams to remain in the playoff hunt. That puts pressure on teams every week — and no one can afford to be caught looking ahead to the rivalry games.
“You better be putting these chips in your pocket to make sure you have some wiggle room when you get into the division,” Spielman said. “At least you have maybe eight or nine wins piled up. If you fall behind before the division games come up, you’re digging yourself in a big hole.”
NFC North games this season
- Week 4: Vikings 31, at Packers 29
- Sunday: Lions at Vikings
- Week 9: Lions and Packers
- Week 11: Packers at Bears
- Week 12: Vikings at Bears
- Week 13: Bears at Lions
- Week 14: Packers at Lions
- Week 15: Bears at Vikings
- Week 16: Lions at Bears
- Week 17: Packers at Vikings
- Week 18: Vikings at Lions
- Week 18: Bears at Packers
