With two weeks until the historic Nov. 5 presidential election, many Lake County and Illinois voters feel like they’ve missed the parade. We’re like wallflowers at the big dance, or members of the B-team waiting for a chance to start.
This is what happens living in a non-battleground state. We’re drooling over the beefy campaign appearances Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are making in our neighbor to the north, where residents also are bombarded by TV spots.
An Associated Press reporter stopped in Waukegan a few weeks ago to record residents’ frustrations over being ignored by the presidential candidates who are hitting the so-called “swing” states. Indeed, Democrat Harris and Republican Trump will have made more than 30 campaign stops in Wisconsin before voters decide who will be in the Oval Office for the next four years.
Last Friday, the two candidates spent much of their campaign time in Michigan, which like Wisconsin is one of the states that could determine the results of the 2024 White House race, along with Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
Sure, the candidates or their running mates or their surrogates sweep into Illinois for fundraising chats with major donors of both parties. Trump made an odd appearance last week before the Economic Club of Chicago.
If it weren’t for the Democratic National Convention in August, the party’s standard bearer might never have visited the city and state, although Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Democrat candidate for vice president, was in Chicago on Saturday seeking more campaign funds.
Overall, we feel slighted, as former Waukegan Mayor Sam Cunningham told AP staffer Christine Fernando. Ignoring faithful voters for those in fickle battleground states “doesn’t mean it doesn’t hurt,” Democrat Cunningham said as the candidates ignore us.
A lot of media buys, along with campaign and travel money, is being spent in America’s Dairyland by Harris and Trump. The Badger State already is flush; Illinois could use that extra cash being spent up north.
While Harris and Trump are spending time in the seven states, polling suggests the contests in those areas are so close that the two candidates are in a statistical deadlock, leaving voters in a handful or more of states to decide the outcome. In 2020, President Joe Biden captured the Badger State by fewer than some 21,000 votes, about six-tenths of a percentage point.
That victory scored him the state’s 10 Electoral College votes, aiding in his win over Trump. Illinois has 19 Electoral College votes, which both Harris and Trump seem to concede will end up on the Democrat ledger when results are tallied come election night. They won’t be wrong.
Meanwhile, in a Real Clear Politics average of national “snapshot in time” polls, Harris leads Trump by a narrow 1.5 percentage points. In one of the swing states, Arizona, Trump last week led Harris by 1.1 percentage points in a Real Clear Politics polling average. That number could change as the electorate surprisingly continues to shape their views of the White House hopefuls.
Which brings up what will be a continuing debate after Nov. 5: Why is this presidential race so close? Is the economy as bad as some say it is, something economic indicators don’t suggest? Is it misogyny?
One candidate is a 78-year-old felon and serial liar who tosses out wild claims on a daily basis. Fact-checking eventually determines what some consider social truths that lack veracity when it comes to Trump’s stump speeches. A lot of honest-to-God trustworthiness is missing.
Apparently, that does not bother his solid following. Nor state and national Republican leaders who march in lockstep with the former president.
It does concern lots of us, though, including former members of the Trump administration who served in short and long stints between 2017 and 2021. Many of them are backing Harris, who turned 60 on Sunday, and has laid out a thoughtful future for the next four years.
Logic dictates Harris should be cruising to victory. Since replacing Biden as the Democratic presidential candidate, she is nowhere near an easy win. Polls continue to say it’s too close to call.
Pollsters could be wrong. Their track records have been spotty in recent years. In the last two election cycles, nearly all polls in battleground states miscalculated Trump’s strength among voters. Perhaps Harris’ support remains underground for the time being.
Between 1988 and 2020, the final national polling average was off by an average of 2.3 percentage points, according to a recent account in The New York Times. Missing Trump’s voter support in 2016 in swing states, national polls still were close to the popular vote, which Hillary Clinton won.
This presidential election shouldn’t be one of hemming and hawing over which candidate to cast one’s ballot in favor of as early voting begins in earnest this week. Seems it is. For some of us, that is a head-scratcher.
Charles Selle is a former News-Sun reporter, political editor and editor.
sellenews@gmail.com
X: @sellenews
