Nothing is going quite to plan for Nikola Vučević.
When the Chicago Bulls attempted to trade their starting center ahead of the deadline last week, the effort served as another necessary step in completing the first stage of a rebuild.
But the Bulls never received their asking price of first-round draft stock, a crucial asset for them to reclaim after failing to receive first-round picks in any of their most recent trades. After the deadline passed, the front office claimed what it believed to be a smaller victory: laying important groundwork in February to put together a deal for Vučević this summer.
Executive vice president of basketball operations Artūras Karnišovas frequently emphasizes the perceived greater value of the summer trade window, when rosters typically are more malleable to allow a higher volume of transactions. As a result, the common party line from the Bulls is that Vučević will be easier to move — for a higher value — this summer than at the trade deadline.
But what if they’re wrong?
A key to negotiations is understanding when a player has maxed out his potential value and anticipating that impending downturn well ahead of the other 29 teams in the league. But the Bulls are often a step behind in evaluating the potential trade stock of their players, which is how stars such as DeMar DeRozan and high-value rotation players such as Alex Caruso ended up garnering zero picks last year.
The Bulls appear to be a step behind again when it comes to their starting center — and potentially missed an ideal window to move him in the process.
Vučević, 34, opened the season on one of the hottest streaks of his career, shooting at a 47.3% clip from 3-point range in November. Even when his shooting dipped lightly in December, Vučević was able to maintain a 42.3% efficiency that made him a genuine threat from behind the arc.
But his luck began to run out in midwinter. The center’s 3-point shooting plummeted to 26.8% in January, a drastic drop-off that has continued into February. Vučević has not made a 3-pointer in more than a week, going 0-for-11 over the last three games.
“It’s not the best I’ve shot it, especially the last three games,” Vučević said. “It’s overall, not just the 3. I’ve been missing my floaters around the rim and I’m just not in the best rhythm offensively right now.”
Vučević always has been an emotional player, a trait he often acknowledges. In prior years, he struggled to get out of his head during shooting slumps. While Vučević has vocalized a desire to step up more as a veteran leader for the locker room, his self-imposed frustration often bleeds into his play on the court.
The result has been fairly consistent: Once Vučević’s efficiency dips, it rarely corrects itself. And at this rate, the center’s 3-point shooting is almost guaranteed to sink back near his career average — 34.5% — by the end of the season.
That would leave the Bulls right where they began when they reenter trade negotiations this summer — except that Vučević will be a year older, entering his 15th NBA season and fresh off a year that only reinforced his label as a streaky shooter.
This makes it hard to fully buy into the front office’s belief that Vučević’s market will be stronger this summer. His contract will become even more friendly with only one season left on a three-year, $60 million deal. But the Bulls will have a harder time pitching an aging center who can’t sustain even moderate shooting through a season and potentially into the playoffs.
The Bulls can’t start next season with Vučević on the roster. The partnership is not conducive to the goals of either party — the Bulls need to begin building around younger talent, and Vučević wants to be in a “win-now” situation for his final years in the league. But the Bulls already have missed consecutive windows to accomplish that goal, raising concerns about their ability to move the center on a reasonable timeline.
In the meantime, Vučević is frustrated.
By the end of last season, he knew the project surrounding himself, Zach LaVine and DeRozan had failed. Trades were on the way. Vučević knew it was time to brace for a year of tumult as the Bulls embraced a complete roster upheaval in an attempt to begin a rebuild.
But Vučević never really expected to be the last man standing out of the trio. And now, as he attempts to helm an aimless young roster through the final stretch of the season, the center once again is struggling to redefine himself in Chicago.
Ultimately, Vučević is the only person who can now improve this situation for both the Bulls and himself. And it all comes back to the same thing — making shots.
“I just have to be better,” Vučević said. “I haven’t been at the level I know I can be.”
