MESA, Ariz. — After an offseason of rumors about Alex Bregman to the Chicago Cubs, reality set in Wednesday night with the news the free-agent third baseman agreed to a three-year, $120 million deal with the Boston Red Sox.
A missed opportunity, for sure, but nothing to pull out your hair over.
“It’s one of those deals where you’re interested in a very good player and someone else got him and you’re disappointed and you move on,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell said Thursday. “On the field that’s how you have to approach it.”
Of course, it’s not so easy for Cubs fans to move on, knowing their “big-market” team — worth an estimated $4.2 billion, according to Forbes — once again was outbid for a prominent free agent.
The Cubs reportedly offered a significant sum — $115 million over four years — which President Jed Hoyer called a “financial stretch above our budget.” But in the end, it was still more than $11 million per year below the Red Sox offer, which includes opt-outs and deferrals.
Hoyer said the Cubs “recognized the opportunity” and thanked owners Tom and Laura Ricketts for “pushing our budget” (conveniently forgetting their brother Todd). Hoyer insisted the Cubs made the “best offer we could make” but conceded they couldn’t match the structure and amount due to budget constraints.
The $40 million average annual value of the Red Sox deal was too high, Hoyer confirmed, and adding more years to the offer wasn’t “in the cards.” The Detroit Tigers reportedly offered the most money — $171.5 million over six years, also including an opt out and deferrals — but a lower AAV.
Hoyer said, without elaborating, that “philosophically deferrals have been something the organization has avoided.” The good mood he seemed to be in when camp began Sunday had disappeared by Thursday. He was tight-lipped while expressing his disappointment, as expected.
And so it goes.
Promising rookie Matt Shaw figures to get the first shot this spring at third base to replace Isaac Paredes, who couldn’t hit after replacing Christopher Morel, who couldn’t field.
No pressure, kid. Just do your thing.
The Cubs’ swing and miss on Bregman was just another chapter in a long-running narrative. With a few exceptions such as Jon Lester, the team traditionally has come up short in its pursuits of prominent free agents or trade acquisitions, going back to the Tribune Co. days.
That’s not all Hoyer’s fault. He can’t blow past a budget and still work for the Rickettses, and we can’t forget that he did re-sign Cody Bellinger last spring. But after trading for Kyle Tucker over the winter, Hoyer then dealt Bellinger to the New York Yankees in a salary dump that Tom Ricketts denied was a salary dump.
Ricketts rationalized that the money from Bellinger’s contract could be diverted elsewhere. Had they signed Bregman, Ricketts could’ve walked into camp Friday and told reporters, “I told you so.”
Instead, it’s back to the Cubs being the Cubs.
Asked what he would say to fans who don’t believe the Cubs are acting like a big-market team, Counsell replied: “I don’t know if I have commentary on it. … You’re involved in a player, which means you want to get him. And when you don’t, you’re disappointed.”
Confirmed.
The Cubs’ 40-man payroll is currently about $209 million, according to Cot’s — about $31 million below the luxury tax threshold. The offer to Bregman would’ve put them near the team’s limit, but Hoyer said signing the former Houston Astros star was “a significant exception” he was allowed to make.
Hoyer said the Cubs still have some money in the budget “for small in-season things.” You never know when you’ll need another reliever. He repeated that he was thankful to the Rickettses for letting him “be opportunistic,” even if the opportunity was wasted.
Entering the final year of his own deal, it pays to tell his bosses he’s thankful.
Whether losing out on Bregman will be the difference between what appears to be a pretty good Cubs team and an actual World Series contender will be debated for a while. If the Cubs win without him, no one will care in October.
“Close but no cigar” is a saying elderly Cubs fans are familiar with. Counsell might remember that back in May 1998, the Cubs came in second in the race to acquire All-Star catcher Mike Piazza from the Florida Marlins, for whom Counsell played at the time.
Piazza went to the New York Mets and led them to the World Series two years later. Cubs general manager Ed Lynch refused to part with catching prospect Pat Cline or pitching prospect Todd Noel, neither of whom made it to the majors.
When news of the Piazza deal flashed on the TV, one Cubs team leader stood up in the clubhouse and yelled, “You have to be kidding.” Piazza’s agent said the Cubs’ offer was second to the Mets, prompting Cubs President Andy MacPhail to respond: “I don’t know about that. We’ll never know how close we came.”
Would Piazza have made a difference in ’98, when the Cubs won the National League wild-card berth and lost to the Atlanta Braves in the playoffs? We’ll never know.
Sometimes the best signings are the ones you don’t make. Former Cubs President Theo Epstein, Hoyer’s mentor, always maintained that signing free agents in their 30s was a road he didn’t care to take. Then he signed pitcher Edwin Jackson to a four-year, $52 million deal in 2013 that raised eyebrows because the Cubs weren’t close to being competitive. Jackson was “only” 29.
“We weren’t eager to make a significant investment in a player you’d have to sign for a good portion of their mid-30s, or who’s had a significant injury history or hasn’t been reliable in the past,” Epstein said at the time. “When a 29-year-old with a very consistent track record and a solid, effective, 200-innings-a-year, mid-rotation starter emerged and was available at what, relatively speaking, was a reasonable cost and a reasonable length of contract, we felt like it made a lot of sense.”
Jackson went 16-34 with a 5.37 ERA in 2½ seasons on the North Side. The Cubs released him during the 2015 season, eating the final $15.6 million on the deal. The rebuild had turned the corner by then, and Epstein was able to cut his losses. It turned out to be his worst signing as Cubs president and one he regretted.
“We wouldn’t do it over again,” he told a group of season ticket holders after the 2014 season.
Every baseball executive has a signing or two they’d like back, including Hoyer. The difference is Epstein was self-assured enough to publicly admit some of his mistakes.
Hoyer’s next potential big-ticket target will be Tucker, who should be ecstatic about the news Bregman, 31 next month, is getting $40 million per year. Tucker turns 29 next offseason and should command at least as high an AAV as Bregman at probably at six or more years.
Will Hoyer get another chance to “be opportunistic” and re-sign Tucker? Will he still be in the president’s chair to make that decision?
The only ones who really know are Tom and Laura Ricketts … and maybe Todd.
