Well, the Chicago Bulls are back here. Again.
For a third consecutive season, it’s clear the Bulls are destined to return to the NBA Play-In Tournament. With Thursday’s win over the Orlando Magic, the Bulls stretched their lead for No. 10 seed out to 3.5 games. They’re holding the Toronto Raptors at a comfortable arm’s length while the Philadelphia 76ers, still reeling from the loss of Joel Embiid, are freefalling out of postseason contention.
Nothing has been clinched quite yet. Plenty can happen over the next 18 games. But the standings and the standard of competition between the tenth team and the rest of the Eastern Conference are starkly obvious.
The Bulls are play-in tournament-bound once again. Embrace it — or ignore it — but don’t try to fight it.
There’s no use left in debating the merits of an attempted tank. The Bulls clearly won’t be able to accomplish that feat, which they have appeared otherwise uninterested in pursuing at any point this season.
And wasn’t this the plan? This is why the front office sought to regain full control of their first-round pick while trading Zach LaVine rather than acquiring future draft capital. For whatever reason — the inherent weakness of the conference, the admirable competitiveness of players like Coby White, the power of small-ball basketball — the Bulls never committed enough to compete for a top pick in this year’s draft.
And these are the consequences. The Bulls severely limited their own odds of landing a truly valuable draft pick. By remaining tenth in the East, the Bulls reduced their odds of landing the No. 1 overall pick to 6%. That could drop to 4.5% if the San Antonio Spurs outpace them in losses through the final stretch, a likely scenario after Victor Wembanyama underwent a season-ending surgery.
And sure, the No. 1 pick might have always been a pipe dream, but landing a top-four selection was considerably more doable for the Bulls. But they reduced their odds of landing there — and, again, that could drop down to 20.3% if the Spurs surpass the Bulls.
The general position within the Bulls front office has always been that these margins aren’t worth losing games over. Even this season, with a veritable storm of hype surrounding potential No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg, the Bulls have never expressed urgency in improving their odds in the draft lottery.
It is easy to look at a 1.5% difference and argue it’s worthless. The element of luck in the draft selection process often provides a conundrum to NBA executives, who are terrified of taking a major swing only to have their future determined by an unlucky bounce of a ping-pong ball. Still, the difference between the No. 9 pick in this draft and a top-four selection is obvious — and a likely casualty of the Bulls’ approach to their season.
But again, there’s no use fighting any of this. The Bulls have cast their odds. This is how the season will end. Maybe luck will shine on them. Maybe it won’t. But the only way now to get any benefit out of the remaining games is to shift focus to the development of players who can actually provide both short- and long-term value.
Thursday’s win in Orlando was a testament to that effect. After an initial adjustment period, White is once again flexing his ability to be a do-everything guy for the Bulls, scoring a career-high 44 points in a thunderous late-game rally to clinch a win over another potential play-in opponent. But the most promising sign for the Bulls was a small — yet significant — play from rookie Matas Buzelis.
Things have gotten harder for Buzelis, who averaged 27.4 minutes in his first 12 games as a starter since the trade deadline. But despite tougher defensive matchups and a handful of off-shooting nights, Buzelis is beginning to show signs of becoming a true starting option — even as a rookie. Against the Magic, he took another step forward.
With two minutes and 51 seconds remaining, Buzelis tried to sneak around the Magic’s Kentavious Caldwell-Pope after backing his defender down in the post, ultimately hitting a wall on his spin move. The moment Buzelis picked up his dribble, it signaled trouble — the Bulls rookie has often floundered with the next step after a failed drive to the basket, a situation that often to turnovers or an ill-advised shot.
But in Orlando, Buzelis hung onto the ball, scanning for options as White immediately sprung into a pair of cuts that provided an open lane to the basket. Buzelis dished the ball right on time, and White threw down a ferocious dunk as the Bulls danced away with a hard-fought win — the latest in a string of high-effort performances from a young group unburdened by expectations.
That type of play symbolizes significant growth for the Bulls, who finally have an obvious young piece to build. Will that development outweigh the loss of a higher draft pick? That question can’t truly be answered until the NBA draft lottery on May 12.
But with the play-in tournament all but guaranteed, the only choice now is to embrace the impending opportunity for Buzelis, White and the rest of the young Bulls core.
