A look at the NCAA Tournament bubble picture.
Missed opportunities
Xavier and Indiana had chances to give their resumes a significant boost Thursday, but the Musketeers lost 89-87 to No. 25 Marquette, and Indiana fell 72-59 to No. 23 Oregon. Those aren’t bad losses by any means, but they were squandered opportunities, given that Xavier and Indiana are very much on the bubble.
And Texas and North Carolina, two bubble teams whose outlooks seemed pretty precarious a couple days ago, are still alive in their conference tournaments. The Longhorns snagged a huge win over No. 14 Texas A&M, 94-89 in double overtime. The Tar Heels beat Wake Forest 68-59, avenging a regular-season loss. North Carolina has won eight of nine since a blowout loss at Clemson, with the lone defeat being at home to Duke last weekend.
Indiana also closed the regular season strong, winning five of its last seven, but the Hoosiers fell short of the type of run in the Big Ten Tournament that could have solidified their position.
Bid thieves foiled
Bid thief (noun): a team that has little chance of earning an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament but makes it by winning its conference tournament unexpectedly, thereby reducing the number of spots left for teams on the bubble.
Those bubble teams can breathe a tiny bit easier after Thursday. It’s now clear that none of the top five conferences — the SEC, ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 or Big East — will have a bid thief. That’s unless you count Texas and North Carolina, who are now a threat to other bubble teams whether they win their conference tournaments or not.
The top eight seeds in the Big Ten Tournament all made the quarterfinals, and the top four seeds are in the Big 12 semifinals.
A few upset-minded teams made a decent go of it, though. DePaul got to double overtime before being eliminated by Creighton in the Big East, and Louisville needed a buzzer beater to knock out Stanford in the ACC.
Bid thieves are still possible in the AAC, Atlantic 10 and maybe even the Big West. And who knows how to make sense of the Mountain West? New Mexico, Boise State, Colorado State and Utah State are in the semifinals of that tournament. All four of those teams have at-large chances to varying degrees.
The experts say …
- ESPN’s last four in: San Diego State, Xavier, North Carolina, Texas
- Sports Illustrated’s last four in: San Diego State, Texas, Indiana, Xavier
- ESPN’s first four out: Indiana, Ohio State, Boise State, Colorado State
- Sports Illustrated’s first four out: North Carolina, Colorado State, Boise State, UC Irvine
Up next
As it often does, Duke vs. North Carolina takes center stage Friday. The top-ranked Blue Devils are hobbled after injuries to star forward Cooper Flagg and defensive whiz Maliq Brown, and the Tar Heels may need one more win to move onto the right side of the bubble.
Automatic bids so far
SIU Edwardsville (Ohio Valley), Omaha (Summit), Lipscomb (Atlantic Sun), High Point (Big South), Drake (Missouri Valley), Wofford (Southern), Troy (Sun Belt), Robert Morris (Horizon), UNC-Wilmington (Coastal Athletic), St. Francis, Pa. (Northeast), Gonzaga (WCC), McNeese (Southland), American (Patriot), Montana (Big Sky)
Automatic bids at stake Friday: None
