The initial wave of NFL free agency has passed, and the Chicago Bears continue to fill out the roster for coach Ben Johnson’s first season while looking ahead to next month’s draft.
General manager Ryan Poles put a heavy emphasis on the line of scrimmage in his early trades and signings, but his offseason work is far from done. The Tribune’s Brad Biggs sorts through what’s next in his weekly Bears mailbag.
Ryan Poles finally did the right thing and went heavy investing in the offensive line. When is the last time the Bears put such an emphasis on protecting the quarterback and running game by paying the big guys? — Sean B., Lake in the Hills
The Bears never have spent on the offensive line in terms of cash and average annual salary like they are doing now after trading for guards Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson and signing center Drew Dalman to a three-year, $42 million deal that makes him the second-highest-paid player at his position.
But the cash outlay and annual averages are relative to the times and the salary cap. The Bears have invested heavily in the offensive line in the past, and it has coincided with some of their better seasons. The 2018 division champions had a solid line that featured a first-round pick in Kyle Long and two second-round picks in Cody Whitehair and James Daniels, and they had extended the contract of left tackle Charles Leno in 2017. They also were paying Bobby Massie pretty good money for a right tackle at the time.
The Bears were heavily invested in the offensive line in 2006, when they reached Super Bowl XLI. Olin Kreutz was one of the highest-paid centers in the league. They had signed John Tait away from the Kansas City Chiefs at a premium to play left tackle. Fred Miller was earning good money as a right tackle added in free agency, and Ruben Brown and Roberto Garza were veteran guards the team had signed. Garza was on a prove-it deal at the time, but the Bears had a lot invested in the line at the time, especially in relation to the salary cap.
While it’s fun in the social media era to use recency bias and claim everything is the biggest, greatest or worst of all time, perspective will show you the Bears have put significant resources into the offensive line.
They have been negligent in recent seasons, and that’s what forced them to go hard for new starters this year — and I can’t imagine the work is done after adding the 32-year-old Thuney; Jackson, who struggled last season with the Los Angeles Rams; and Dalman, who is entering the prime of his career. I have to believe they’ll use one of their top three draft picks on an offensive lineman to add talent and youth to the group and help prevent them from landing in this predicament again.
How high is too high for the Bears to draft a running back? Is there any truth behind the Bears being nervous on missing out on all of the top running back prospects before pick 39? — @thyandsmi
I don’t know that any position is too high for the Bears, who have the 10th pick in Round 1, to draft a running back. But it will come down to draft grades for the players remaining on the board when they are on the clock. If the Bears have a grade on an offensive or defensive lineman that is similar to their grade for Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty (assuming he makes it to No. 10), can they really afford to take a running back? Would that make sense with the draft so deep in running back talent? Would that make sense given the lack of youth on the offensive line with the exception of right tackle Darnell Wright? Would that make sense given the need for more pass rushers?
I can’t imagine the Bears are nervous about all of the top running backs possibly being gone by the time their second pick comes around at No. 39. I’d imagine they’re excited and energized by the possibilities in this draft. There will be really good backs available in Round 3. It’s about identifying the players who fit specifically what they’re looking for and then stacking the draft board.
With the Bears trading for guards Jonah Jackson and Joe Thuney and signing Drew Dalman at center, what is the plan for Ryan Bates? Is he just a versatile backup for all the interior OL positions or a potential cost-savings cut? — Dana W.
A couple of readers asked about how Bates fits into the puzzle, and we’ll have to see. Right now he looks like the backup to the three interior positions. But that’s a position he will have to earn, and if the Bears add a mid-round draft pick, he could have competition in training camp.
The impression I get is the Bears, at minimum, want to see Bates in the mix as a reserve this summer. He earned a $500,000 roster bonus on the third day of the league year, and if the team was looking to create a little cap savings and save on some cash, it would have released him before that. He has a $3.4 million base salary and a $100,000 workout bonus. The $500,000 roster bonus doesn’t lock down a spot for Bates, but it is evidence the team wants to have him in the pool of options.
Physically, Bates should be in a much better position than he was last summer, and if that remains the case, he could offer some value as a backup with experience.
Cairo Santos was a Week 18 hero for the Bears, but his leg strength has been a bit of a liability over the last couple of seasons. Do you think the Bears look for a new kicker in the next season or two? — Stan, Ankeny, Iowa
Santos’ $3.1 million base salary for this season is fully guaranteed, so it would take something unexpected or an injury to change the team’s plans. His contract runs through the 2027 season, but this is the final year with guarantees.
I’ve received numerous questions and complaints about Santos’ leg strength in the last year or so, and I think some folks are overlooking that it’s one thing to drill a 60-yard field goal at AT&T Stadium, where the Dallas Cowboys play. It’s another to do that at Soldier Field. That’s not an apples-to-apples discussion.
Santos won the finale at Lambeau Field with a 51-yard field goal and has been very good from longer distances. In the last three seasons, he’s 19 of 22 from 50-plus yards.
Does Santos have the strongest leg in the NFL? No. Is leg strength the primary thing you’re looking for from your place kicker? No. Have the Bears passed on some very long field goals — 55 yards or more — in a few situations over the last couple of seasons that a kicker with a stronger leg might have attempted? No doubt. But the subset of attempts we’re talking about here is really small.
Since Santos returned to the Bears in 2020, he has made 61 of 68 field goals (89.7%) at Soldier Field. Opposing kickers have made 68 of 83 (81.9%) in that span.
“An 8% difference is insane,” former Bears long snapper Pat Mannelly said when I called him about this topic. “That says a lot.”
That’s why the Bears extended Santos’ contract late in the 2023 season. Everyone remembers the kicking circus they went through after replacing Robbie Gould. You start swapping out kickers and struggle to get the right guy, and it’s the kind of thing that can make coaches restless at night.
“We saw that with Robbie,” Mannelly said. “He had just a little bit of a downturn and they got rid of him. It was a big mistake. The Packers stuck with Mason Crosby when he had a rough stretch, and it worked out for them.
“Cairo had the blocked kicks last season. Could they have been higher? Yes. But that’s not all on him. That’s on the protection too. I want someone that is accurate, first, and someone who understands how to kick at Soldier Field, second.”
The difference in accuracy between Santos and visiting kickers at Soldier Field is probably bigger than you imagine. That’s a part of the discussion that is omitted when people clamor about leg strength and longer field goals. In a perfect world, the Bears would have a kicker with a cannon for a leg who is wired to handle the intricacies of playing half of his games at Soldier Field. That’s a tough person to find, and the process to identify him could be a little bumpy.
What do you think Ben Johnson is considering regarding Cole Kmet? Is he TE1? Will he see the ball more? And/or will a tight end possibly be selected in the draft? — @brooklyncorn
Most of the chatter I have seen surrounding Kmet has really lacked nuance. I’ll do my best to answer your questions, but let’s dive into some numbers first.
Kmet had 47 receptions for 474 yards (10.1 per catch) and four touchdowns last season. He was targeted only 55 times, so he had a reception on 85.5% of his targets, easily a career high. His receiving success rate — defined by Pro Football Reference as gaining 40% of the needed yards on first down, 60% on second down and 100% on third and fourth down — was a career-high 70.9%. He averaged 8.6 yards per target, another career best.
The issue was that between the offensive coordinators and quarterback Caleb Williams, the Bears could not and would not throw Kmet the ball. He had eight games with two or fewer targets, including the last five. Kmet was targeted 90 times in 2023 and saw that figure drop by nearly 40% last season. No one was able to provide a meaningful explanation, and it certainly wasn’t something they planned.
It’s natural to have concern about TE1 if he’s producing only 47 catches and 474 yards, but I truly believe the issue was the Bears, in a variety of ways, seemingly phased the position out of the passing offense. A big part of that, in my opinion, was because they traded for Keenan Allen and had designs for him to do some of the work in the middle of the field.
But it was still inexcusable to see Kmet go for stretches when the quarterback never looked his way, especially in the red zone and on third down, where he has proved to be reliable and productive. The problem with Kmet’s production last season traces back to the offense, the play calling and the ability of Williams to get through his progressions.
Now that we’ve covered that, we should note that it’s an error to compare Kmet, who is a Y tight end with upside and athletic ability as a receiver, with tight ends who are strictly receivers. He never will put up massive numbers as a pass catcher. That’s not why the Bears drafted him. That’s not why Ryan Poles paid him. He can be highly effective in the running game, and one thing to note about Johnson’s offense is he wants multidimensional tight ends. The Bears are unlikely to have a receiver-only tight end (think Jimmy Graham type) in this system unless Johnson has a highly detailed plan for him.
To answer your questions, I think Johnson likes Kmet, but actions will be more instructive than words. Johnson hasn’t worked on the field with anyone yet. Will Kmet see the ball more? I’d think it would be difficult for him to be less utilized in the offense this season. Will the Bears draft a tight end? They no doubt are taking a hard look at a good class of tight ends. Free-agent signee Durham Smythe is a veteran blocker with limited pass-catching ability. They could use a young player in the mix. I wouldn’t rule out any of the top tight ends in this class.
Where exactly does Kmet fit as a pass catcher in Johnson’s offense? We’ll have to wait until after the draft to answer this. Right now he’s TE1 without question, and the Bears should expect more from him in 2025. They just have to give him more opportunities.
Would the Bears view Will Campbell as a left tackle or only an interior lineman? — @joeringblum
That’s a good question and quite possibly one the Bears won’t have to answer. There’s a decent chance the LSU product will be off the board before they are on the clock at No. 10. My opinion is if you use a top-10 pick on a guy who played left tackle at a high level in the SEC, you start him out at that position.
There is concern about Campbell’s arm length, but I believe that storyline has been overblown. Teams like his tape. They like his makeup. If he somehow is available for the Bears, you’re probably looking at the new left tackle. If he works out, great. If you run into issues, then you consider a move to the interior, where he’d be a highly capable performer.
Is there any chance the Bears extend Braxton Jones if he proves healthy by camp or do they need a full season at this point? The left tackle options in Round 1 seem sketchy and there is so much cap room available in 2026. If Dan Moore can cash out like that, I am wary of Braxton hitting the market. — @gregfeltes
Moore, a former fourth-round pick by the Pittsburgh Steelers, hit it big in free agency, signing a four-year, $82 million contract with the Tennessee Titans. Folks I talked to at the scouting combine predicted Moore would be paid more than a lot of people expected, but the range I heard was between $16 million and $18 million per season. Credit to Moore for topping that by a nice margin.
It’s not a great draft for left tackles, and I don’t think there’s a prospect like Joe Alt from a year ago. But there are options. I don’t believe the Bears would consider extending Jones before the season. That doesn’t make sense to me, given the new coaching staff wouldn’t have an opportunity to evaluate him in game action. If Jones is the starting left tackle and he puts his best football on the field, the Bears always could work to re-sign him after the season.
This is a position to keep a close eye on between now and June. What does the depth chart look like? What is the level of competition? My guess is it will extend beyond Jones and Kiran Amegadjie, but we’ll have to wait and see.
Do you think Bill Murray figures in the team’s long-term plans? To my eye he looked pretty good last season in limited action. — @ryderguthrie
Your eye didn’t get a lot of opportunities to evaluate Murray last season. He was on the field for a grand total of 42 snaps — 37 in the Week 5 victory over the Carolina Panthers. Three weeks later, he suffered a torn pectoral muscle at Washington and was done for the season.
Murray has a chance to make the team as a reserve. The Bears are amassing as much talent as they can for the offensive line, and when they get on the field in training camp, they can start sorting through the options. He projects as a potential backup at guard. Will the Bears use a draft pick on a guard they view as a future starter? That could complicate things for Murray.
The bottom line is the Bears don’t have enough good linemen. They were intrigued by what Murray displayed last season and over the summer. There’s a new coaching staff that has to evaluate the players. Nothing will be determined until camp and the preseason get rolling, and how much competition the team adds will be a factor.
It seems there are rather few remaining positions on the team that don’t have a clear-cut starter already in place. What are the odds that the Bears draft a player at No. 10 who doesn’t immediately start next year? — @mosconml
I’m recommending you remove the navy-and-orange-shaded sunglasses you’re wearing while scanning the depth chart. The Bears were a five-win team that was coming off a 7-10 season. They’ve won 15 games over the last three seasons. You have good reason to be optimistic about some of the additions and young players who have arrived in the last two years, but there are plenty of positions on both sides of the ball where the team could use an upgrade.
Let’s be real here. Unless something goes very wrong or there’s an injury, the first-round draft pick is likely to start. Perhaps if it’s a defensive lineman, he might begin in a rotation. Even then, you should be looking for a top-10 pick to start. If the draft goes right, the Bears will have new talent at a handful of positions that raises the level of competition immediately for some players viewed as starters right now. That’s something they want to get to this summer, a situation where competition isn’t lip service, it’s real.
Jaquan Brisker is one of my favorites but the concussion situation is becoming a chronic issue. Should the Bears invest a high draft pick in the safety position this year with Kevin Byard’s age and Brisker’s availability question marks? — @fgrunder3
One would imagine the Bears are looking at the safety crop in the draft, if for nothing else the opportunity to add a developmental player to the pipeline. It’s not a great draft for the position and it’s a tricky one to evaluate. I don’t think it’s a great idea to use a “high” pick on a safety unless there’s a special player you believe can be a foundational piece in the back end of the defense. It’s not uncommon for teams to find solid safeties in the middle and even late rounds of the draft.
It’s not like the Bears solved all of the issues on both sides of the line via trades and free agency. They need to supplement those areas with young, talented players on rookie contracts if they’re truly focused on being better at the line of scrimmage. That’s why I view safety as a secondary need in the draft.
