The Chicago Cubs learned the hard way last year how challenging it can be to overcome a bad extended stretch and still make the postseason.
Just like in 2023, the Cubs finished May going 10-18 in the month, and after dropping their sixth consecutive series following the Cincinnati Reds taking two of three games over the weekend at Wrigley Field. They need to quickly turn things around before digging another hole they spend the rest of the season recovering from.
For a veteran-filled team in manager Craig Counsell’s first year at the helm, the Cubs should be better than the 29-31 record they take into Tuesday’s series opener against the White Sox. The Cubs, who have lost eight of their last 10 games, own a minus-12 run differential this season despite how well their starting pitchers have performed. They need the offense to get going, namely a few players in particular.
1B Michael Busch
A scorching three weeks to start the season, which featured five consecutive games with a home run, are still largely buoying Michael Busch’s overall season numbers.
When taking a closer look at his performance, Busch’s offensive production has cratered in the last six weeks. In his last 36 games, Busch is batting .186 with a .298 on-base percentage and .314 slugging percentage. He’s tallied seven extra-base hits in that span while posting a 38% K%. Busch showed how having another dynamic lefty slugger in the lineup can enhance the Cubs’ offense, and he displayed tantalizing upside to begin the season.
But with center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong back up and manager Craig Counsell expected to find him more playing time this season than during his first stint in the majors, and with Cody Bellinger’s versatility, those at-bats will in part come from Busch’s playing time if the 26-year-old doesn’t get going. Busch has started only one of the last four games and was limited to two pinch-hit opportunities during the weekend series versus the Cincinnati Reds.
He enters the White Sox series having drawn a walk in five consecutive games, including both pinch-hit plate appearances, perhaps a sign he is starting to trend in the right direction. The Cubs need improved consistency from the rookie.
Catcher tandem
The Cubs came into the season with the type of veteran-to-youngster transition tandem behind the plate with Yan Gomes and Miguel Amaya.
The Cubs weren’t banking on Gomes, who turns 37 next month, to fully replicate last year’s 20 doubles, 10 home runs, 95 OPS+ and 63 RBIs, the latter of which were his most since 2014. Nor was the organization expecting Amaya in his first full big-league season to produce at an offensive level among the best at his position. But what the Cubs have been getting offensively from their two catchers is untenable regardless of an unfavorable Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP). Counsell has made clear they need more from Gomes (.154/.173/.244) and Amaya (.186/.252/.271).
At this point, even just “not great” would be a big upgrade over the black hole of production the Cubs are getting from that spot. Gomes’ and Amaya’s combined .478 OPS is ahead of only the White Sox’s catchers OPS this season; league average is .706 at the position. And within their lack of slugging, the duo have struggled to get on base with their combined .218 OBP, tied with the White Sox for 29th. Gomes has recorded just one walk in 81 plate appearances and owns a 39.5% K%.
Gomes and Amaya, who is out of minor-league options, have roughly a month to turn things around before the Cubs must pursue an outside upgrade at catcher.
SS Dansby Swanson
Bad luck is part of baseball and no one on the Cubs has been more negatively affected than third baseman Christopher Morel.
But Dansby Swanson is right behind him in that department, owning a .186 BABIP since May 1. He’s been hitting the ball too during this stretch, even while dealing with a knee injury that required him to go on the injured list. His 35.6% Hard Hit% is third on the Cubs dating to the start of last month behind only Morel and Ian Happ. Swanson needs to put the ball in the air more (24.4 FB% in his last 19 games), but it seems his plan at the plate is giving him chances to succeed.
Not deviating from what is allowing him to generate solid, though unlucky, contact, will be important in helping hits start to fall for Swanson.
