This is not the year for suspense when it comes to the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft.
Signs have pointed to the Chicago Bears using that selection on USC quarterback Caleb Williams for months, and that is expected to come to fruition Thursday when the draft kicks off in Detroit.
But the top half of the first round could be a wild ride. One general manager predicts that very scenario, noting the number of teams in the market for a quarterback, including a handful of clubs sitting just outside the top 10.
There could be a whole lot of “deal or no deal” early in the round as franchises jockey for position. We take a final shot at figuring out what promises to be a fascinating draft for Chicago Bears general manager Ryan Poles in mock draft 4.0.
1. Bears (from Carolina Panthers): Caleb Williams, QB, USC
The Bears have a better roster for a quarterback set to go No. 1 in the draft than there’s been in a mighty long time. Wide receivers DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, tight ends Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett and an offensive line that should be improved will put Williams in position to avoid some of the bumps in the road that many rookie quarterbacks, including some in the recent Bears past, encounter.
2. Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Suspense begins with the second pick and much has been made about a crowded visit of QB prospects last week, but most signs have been pointing to the Heisman Trophy winner Daniels for a while. But first-year GM Adam Peters has done an excellent job of masking his intentions and this will be interesting.
3. New England Patriots: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
Maye has excellent size and mobility and a strong arm and some of the uneven tape he had with the Tar Heels can be attributed to the talent he had around him at times. Some believe he profiles a bit like Justin Herbert and there’s no question the makeup is there as well. There’s just not a lot to surround a quarterback with in New England right now.
4. Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Arizona owns 11 total picks with six of them in the first three rounds, so the Cardinals aren’t in a position where they really need to add more capital. That means they would probably have to be blown away to trade out of the spot. They can stay put and get the first non-quarterback and top receiver in the class.
5. Los Angeles Chargers: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
This is an ideal trade spot for a team lurking for Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy, but the Chargers cannot move down very far and still have their pick of offensive linemen. Jim Harbaugh built up his powerful team at Michigan in the trenches. If Los Angeles doesn’t get a trade offer that makes sense, the Chargers can feel good about selecting a lineman who should be a pillar for seasons to come.
6. New York Giants: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
The Giants approached the offseason by adding Drew Lock and saying enough positive things about Daniel Jones to make you believe he’s going to get another shot. But they’ve also done a lot of work on QBs in this class and they can shake things up by grabbing McCarthy here if they don’t want a dangerous wide receiver.
7. New York Jets (projected trade with Tennessee Titans): Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
With Nabers still on the board and the Jets eager to provide QB Aaron Rodgers with an explosive playmaker, New York can shoot up three spots and grab the LSU star. There are some character concerns about Nabers but he’s so talented, some personnel men maintain there’s a chance he comes off the board before Harrison.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
Atlanta needs an edge rusher and wide receiver or offensive tackle could be tempting. But it’s a thin class of defensive tackles and the Falcons can get the best of the bunch in Murphy. Coach Raheem Morris came from the Los Angeles Rams so he knows what a disruptive interior player can do for a unit after working with Aaron Donald.
9. Bears: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
This feels like a spot where the Bears grab Odunze, who had a super productive career at Washington, or select Murphy. One of them will likely be available and if GM Ryan Poles passes on a trade-down scenario, he gets one of them. In this instance, Odunze can quickly emerge as a future star with Caleb Williams and effectively replace Keenan Allen in the future.
10. Titans (projected trade with Jets): Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
Tennessee has to continue a total overhaul of the offensive line. The Titans used a first-round pick on Peter Skoronski last year and signed center Lloyd Cushenberry in free agency. Adding Fuaga is the natural next step.
11. Minnesota Vikings: Troy Fautanu, LT, Washington
The Vikings acquired another first-round pick with the idea they would be moving up to grab a quarterback. Surely, that is something GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah is working on but the situation has to be right. Minnesota could be comfortable adding talent and re-assessing the market for Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix later on. Fautanu is a little on the short side to play tackle but should be a top-flight addition.
12. Denver Broncos: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
The Broncos are short on draft capital and really need a quarterback. If they cannot put together a move for one to transition from the Russell Wilson era, they can fill another serious need by getting the top cornerback off the board.
13. Las Vegas Raiders: JC Latham, OT, Alabama
The Raiders are another club in quarterback limbo and one to watch for Penix and Nix if they don’t get one of the top four. They’re also in need of help on the offensive line and can get some protection here with Latham.
14. New Orleans Saints: Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State
The Saints have aging Ryan Ramczyk at right tackle and can add some youth to the opposite side by getting Fashanu, completing a run of four offensive linemen in a span of five selections.
15. Indianapolis Colts: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Cornerback is probably the biggest need, scanning the team’s roster. Indianapolis could go that way or the Colts could select Bowers, who would be a friendly target for quarterback Anthony Richardson.
16. Seattle Seahawks: Jared Verse, DE, Florida State
GM John Schneider has been pretty open that the Seahawks have needs in the trenches. If Seattle goes a different direction, Verse is the kind of rugged defender that would be an interesting match for new coach Mike Macdonald.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
Cornerback hasn’t been talked about as a strength in this draft but the premium on the position always tends to push them up draft boards. Mitchell could go in the top half of Round 1 as he has a great combination of athletic traits and he’s physical.
18. Cincinnati Bengals: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
Wide receiver isn’t the greatest need here but Cincinnati did not re-sign Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins is on the franchise tag. Adding Thomas to the fold with Ja’Marr Chase could set the Bengals and QB Joe Burrow up for the future.
19. Los Angeles Rams: Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama
Losing DT Aaron Donald to retirement puts a massive hole in the middle of Sean McVay’s defense. It’s not a great draft for interior lineman, but the Rams can work to rebuild their pass rush by getting the twitched-up Turner.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
Pittsburgh has to get better up front and Guyton is a tall, rangy right tackle who moves very well for a big man. Russell Wilson and Justin Fields were sacked way too much last season so the Steelers have to improve their pass protection.
21. Miami Dolphins: Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA
The Dolphins need pass-rushing talent with their veteran options coming off serious injuries last season. Provided Latu’s neck injury from the beginning of his college career checks out, he’s a skilled technician coming off the edge and plays with a high motor.
22. Philadelphia Eagles: Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
The Eagles have a knack for landing offensive linemen a year before they need them so that will be a possibility here. On defense, Philadelphia was torched in the secondary last season and the Eagles can address that issue with the versatile DeJean.
23. Bills (projected trade with Vikings from Houston Texans): Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
Buffalo really needs to find some help for QB Josh Allen after trading away Stefon Diggs. They are a team that will be lurking later in the round for a move and jumping up four spots here helps them get a big target who is a polished route runner.
24. Dallas Cowboys: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
It’s been an odd offseason in Dallas as the Cowboys have had way more losses than additions in free agency. They’ve been particularly hit up front on offense and need youth. Mims is a massive and long right tackle who should be able to help immediately.
25. Green Bay Packers: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
The Packers could be in the market for a cornerback here but Green Bay has a history of being proactive building depth on the defensive line. If the Packers choose to address their secondary, McKinstry, who is a smooth performer but doesn’t have high-end speed, could be the pick.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Chop Robinson, DE, Penn State
The greatest need the Bucs have is improving the pass rush and Robinson has had a good offseason with a strong showing at the combine in Indianapolis. He can provide them with pressure off the edge.
27. Cardinals (from Texans): Johnny Newton, DT, Illinois
Arizona is really going to improve its roster in this draft and one of the elements missing for the Cardinals is a disruptive interior player. Newton can achieve his goal of moving into Round 1 after returning to school for the Illini last fall.
28. Vikings (projected trade with Bills): Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
Oregon quarterback Bo Nix throws a pass against Washington State during the first half on Oct. 21, 2023, in Eugene, Ore. (Andy Nelson/AP photo)
There’s a lot of debate about whether or not Nix will go in Round 1. The Vikings don’t have a second-round pick but in this trade-down scenario, they get some draft capital back and still get a quarterback. The advantage to adding a player at that position at the end of Round 1 versus Round 2 is getting the fifth-year option in the rookie contract.
29. Detroit Lions: Ennis Rakestraw, CB, Missouri
Cornerback looked like a potential need area for the Lions and then veteran Cameron Sutton went on the run from the law and was released by the team before he finally turned himself in to authorities. Rakestraw fits the mold of the kind of player coach Dan Campbell seeks because he’s a cornerback who will do the work in run defense.
30. Baltimore Ravens: Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
How many times have we been here before, saying the Ravens need to get Lamar Jackson help on the outside? McConkey isn’t a vertical stretch guy but he’s super crafty and smooth and the kind of player who could really help Lamar Jackson.
31. San Francisco 49ers: Graham Barton, OL, Duke
The 49ers are going to need to replace Trent Williams in the near future. Barton played left tackle at Duke and some believe he’ll ultimately be best somewhere on the interior. He’s a smart, tough player, the kind Kyle Shanahan likes, and the 49ers can add him and figure out how he will fit later.
32. Kansas City Chiefs: Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
If an offensive tackle slides to the end of Round 1, it’s the kind of pick you could see Andy Reid pushing for. But the Chiefs need to brace for WR Rashee Rice missing some time after his arrest on assault charges in Texas. Worthy is an absolute speed merchant and will be able to stretch the field for Patrick Mahomes.
