In the wake of the pandemic, more than 1,900 U.S. colleges and universities — more than 80% of four-year institutions — adopted test-optional admissions policies. While this change was originally a response to logistical disruptions during COVID-19, many elite and non-elite schools alike have extended these policies indefinitely. What began as a temporary measure has now reshaped the landscape of American higher education.
Proponents argue that standardized tests favor affluent students with access to test prep and tutoring. Eliminating test requirements, they claim, makes admissions fairer. Yet the shift raises key questions — not only about academic standards, but about institutional incentives and economic sustainability.
The metrics colleges don’t advertise
Before COVID-19, nearly 1.5 million students took the SAT each year. According to the College Board, SAT scores correlated closely with first-year college GPA and graduation likelihood, especially when combined with high school GPA. When those scores disappear, admissions officers must rely on metrics that are less standardized — and more vulnerable to distortion.
Consider GPA: A 2022 study by the Fordham Institute found that the share of high school seniors graduating with an A average has risen from 38.9% in 1998 to over 55% today. At the same time, the average SAT score has declined. In other words, grades are going up even as performance on national tests stagnates — a classic signal of inflation.
In addition, class rank has become less reliable. Roughly 40% of high schools no longer report it, and some name multiple valedictorians. That makes it harder to evaluate top-performing students — and easier for colleges to shape incoming classes using subjective criteria that resist external scrutiny.
Test-Optional not equal to Test-Blind
Despite the headlines, “test-optional” does not mean “test-irrelevant.” At many institutions, internal data suggest that applicants who submit test scores are still admitted at higher rates than those who don’t. At Georgetown University, for example, 92% of admitted students in 2023 submitted test scores, even though the school was officially test-optional.
And while selective schools remain competitive, test-optional policies can quietly depress admissions standards at other institutions. Colleges with shrinking applicant pools or rising tuition discount rates — now averaging 56% at private colleges, according to the National Association of College and University Business Officers — face pressure to admit more full-pay
students. Test-optional policies offer flexibility in doing so.
Colleges also benefit in rankings. Because students who score poorly tend not to submit scores, the average SAT/ACT scores reported to U.S. News & World Report remain high — preserving or even boosting institutional prestige without reflecting the full range of academic readiness.
Strategic advice for families
So what can students and parents do to navigate this landscape more strategically?
1. Submit scores if they’re in the top 50% of admitted students. At most selective schools, this means 1400+ on the SAT or 31+ on the ACT. A strong score can still be a differentiator — especially when other applicants opt out.
2. Look beyond admissions: Demand five-year outcomes data. Ask for average starting salaries by major, job placement rates within six months, and graduate school acceptance rates. Schools with strong academic reputations should be able to share this.
3. Consider long-term return on investment (ROI). According to the Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce, the median 10-year net economic return for a bachelor’s degree is about $107,000 — but varies widely by institution and major. Liberal arts schools without strong placement pipelines may lag behind more specialized or STEM-oriented programs.
4. Evaluate employer presence. Do top firms recruit on campus? Are internships integrated into the curriculum? The strength of a college’s employer relationships often matters more than its selectivity rating.
5. Follow the discount rate. If a school offers unusually large merit scholarships with no clear academic justification, it may be using aid to mask enrollment shortfalls. A high sticker price followed by a steep discount can be a warning sign — not a deal.
The bottom line
Test-optional admissions policies may expand access for some students. But they also obscure the data families need to make informed decisions. Without clear performance metrics, applicants must read between the lines — and focus on outcomes, not just access.
Colleges are adapting to demographic, financial, and reputational pressures. Families should do the same. Ask for the numbers that matter, and don’t be afraid to treat college as the investment it is.
Gerald Bradshaw is an international college admissions consultant with Bradshaw College Consulting in Crown Point.
