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The Philadelphia Phillies are coming off of a nice series win at Wrigley Field, although the Cubs resoundingly won the final game.
They still sit atop the National League and own MLB’s best record, but it’s hard not to think about the Atlanta Braves as a threat, even as they’re currently nine games back, making the series between the two teams a pressurized one.
Here’s a breakdown of Friday’s Game 1 with a prediction and pick.
Phillies vs. Braves odds
- Moneyline: Braves -145, Phillies +120
- Run Line: Braves -1.5 (+145), Phillies +1.5 (-175)
- Total: Over 7.5 (-115), Under 7.5 (-105)
Odds via BetMGM
Phillies vs. Braves prediction
Atlanta, which has lost two of its past three series, will need a strong performance over the weekend to salvage its current nine-game homestand. On Friday, they’ll be throwing one of their top arms, Max Fried, against an Atlanta lineup missing some key bats, namely Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber.
Harper and Schwarber both have crushed left-handed pitching this year. Harper has shown little difference in his splits, with an OPS of .994 a touch higher than what he’s done against righties. Schwarber, on the other hand, has a .978 OPS vs. lefties and .708 against right-handers.
Fried also hasn’t done well against lefties, who have put up an OPS of .936 against him, compared to just .454 for righties. This isn’t like anything we’ve seen from him over the course of his career, but it’s still more than enough to suggest that the absence of two star lefties who hit well against southpaws is a major net positive for Atlanta.
Philly will also be throwing out a star arm on Friday, although that doesn’t tell us much; three of their four starters who have thrown enough innings to qualify for leaderboards have an ERA below 3.00. Aaron Nola is the lone exception, but he’s putting up a strong season in his own right.
Nola thrives on control, impressing more in the area of walk and chase rates than whiff or strikeouts. He’s also produced by far his best run value with his breaking pitches this season, which could be an issue. His primary breaking pitch is a curveball, which he throws 32% of the time, but Atlanta ranks fourth in the majors in per-at-bat runs above average against the curve.
While the Phillies are in better shape in the big picture as long as they can get healthy quick enough, this is a great spot to fade them and back the home team.
Pick: First five innings run line: Braves -0.5 (-113, FanDuel)
