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After dropping two of three in Cincinnati, the Cubs sit 6.5 games back in the wild-card race and hold just a 4.6% chance of making the playoffs, per FanGraphs.
There’s still plenty of excitement surrounding any series against rival St. Louis at Wrigley Field though, and Chicago will look to relish the role of spoiler in a four-game set that kicks off with an excellent pitching matchup as Sonny Gray (3.79 ERA, 111 and 2/3 IP) takes on Shota Imanaga (2.95 ERA, 109 and 2/3 IP).
Gray has not been at his best ahead of this matchup though, as over the last five starts he has pitched to a 6.67 ERA. In those outings he has been hard-hit 40% of the time, and allowed an xBA of .314, and an actual average of .330. One of those starts was against the Cubs, who managed three runs from nine hits versus Gray on July 12.
Cardinals vs. Cubs odds
- Moneyline: Cardinals -106 | Cubs -110
- Run Line: Cardinals -1.5 (+162) | Cubs +1.5 (-196)
- Total: Over 8 (-106) | Under 8 (-114)
Odds via FanDuel
Cardinals vs. Cubs prediction
These two sides were the betting favorites to win the NL Central prior to the season, but the Cubs have been a considerable disappointment, based largely on surprisingly poor offensive play. A wealth of injuries to position players has been a key part of the story, but they are now featuring a far healthier lineup with only Tomas Nido sidelined when it comes to position players.
Since June 1, the Cubs have hit to a wRC+ of 97 against right-handed pitching, with an OPS of .694, and project to be closer to a middle-of-the-pack side the rest of the way against RHP.
After an absolutely incredible start to his MLB career, batters do seem to be figuring out Imanaga to some extent. Since June 1, Imanaga has pitched to an ERA of 4.18 with an xFIP of 3.99. He has been hard-hit 38% of the time in that span and allowed an xBA of .249.
Over the last 30 days, St. Louis holds an eighth-ranked wRC+ and has struck-out only 20.5% of the time. A huge part of Imanaga’s game is generating chases in two-strike counts — if the Cards can lean on what they saw last month to take in some of those spots, it could be favorable tonight.
The forecast calls for some chance of thunderstorms right around first pitch. Make sure you monitor the weather prior to taking any bets involving overs on Imanaga or Gray, as those could suffer a bad beat if the game gets underway and then a delay leads to starters coming out.
Cardinals vs. Cubs pick
Neither starter has been in overly dominant form of late, and both offenses could trend toward better results moving forward at closer to full health. The Cardinals have been picking it up offensively, and should benefit from getting a second look at Imanaga here, while Gray has allowed a ton of hard contact lately.
While the names on the marquee suggest a pitchers duel, a betting total of 8 runs still looks a touch too low with winds projected to be blowing out to left centerfield.
Pick: Over 8 (-105 at bet365) | Play to -110