The 2023 NFL season is now in the books, and as they said themselves, the Chicago Bears are “on the clock” with the No. 1 draft pick.
Can Caleb Williams or another quarterback in this draft class get the Bears someday to the mountaintop where Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs currently reside? Brad Biggs begins his weekly Bears mailbag there.
Does Patrick Mahomes’ play in the Super Bowl reinforce the view of taking Caleb Williams over building around Justin Fields? A good QB covers up a lot of deficiencies in other areas. — @mate01701
I don’t see any grand takeaways from the Chiefs’ 25-22 overtime victory in Super Bowl LVIII that Ryan Poles and the Bears can use as a guide for offseason moves. Poles didn’t need to watch Mahomes complete 34 of 46 passes for 333 yards, including the game-winning touchdown to Mecole Hardman, to have a complete understanding of what he brings to the Kansas City offense. Poles was a senior member of the Chiefs front office for the first five seasons of Mahomes’ career. You don’t need to watch the Super Bowl to understand how an elite quarterback raises the level of play of those around him. Bears fans saw that for ages when Aaron Rodgers was at the controls for the Green Bay Packers.
It’s unlikely the Bears already have decided on Williams as the player they will select with the No. 1 pick. The process is just cranking up, and the scouting combine doesn’t begin until Feb. 26. What reinforces the need to address quarterback — with Williams or whomever the Bears place atop their board — should be the team’s extended struggles throwing the football the last three seasons. The Bears have been in the bottom third of the league in nearly every significant passing metric. That’s what tells you they need to make a move at the position, not seeing Mahomes direct another magical drive on the sport’s biggest stage.
If the Bears draft Caleb Williams at No. 1, how likely do you think it would be if they trade up into the top three or four spots to be able to draft Marvin Harrison Jr.? Would be eerily similar to what the Texans did last year with C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson. — @keca_kyle
I wouldn’t rule anything out, but this seems unlikely. There would be a major price for moving from No. 9 into the top four picks. After selecting Stroud with the second pick last year, the Texans traded the Arizona Cardinals the Nos. 12 and 33 picks in 2023 plus first- and third-round picks in 2024 for the No. 3 pick (used to select Anderson) and a fourth-rounder (No. 105) in 2023.
For the Bears to get from No. 9 into the top four, it’s safe to say they would have to trade their 2025 first-round pick and possibly a little more. With a solid group of quarterbacks in this draft, the price could be higher. I believe it would be difficult to bundle quarterback Justin Fields in a package to trade up as he simply wouldn’t have a ton of value when you consider he has one year remaining on his contract before the fifth-year option, with a decision on that due May 3.
I don’t believe the gap between Harrison and Washington’s Rome Odunze and LSU’s Malik Nabers is such that it would make sense for the Bears to explore this kind of trade. It’s possible one of those other two wide receivers could remain on the board at No. 9 — if the Bears are motivated to add a wide receiver. They certainly could wait later than No. 4 to consider a trade up for one of them.
Has anybody actually looked at Caleb Williams’ college stats compared to Justin Fields’ and been able to explain why Caleb is such a slam dunk over Justin? — @cassius_gregory
Nobody who is objectively analyzing the Bears quarterback decision is getting hung up on college statistics.
Let’s look at the final two college seasons of a quarterback who was drafted in the first round not long ago:
- 209 of 373 (56.0%), 3,203 yards, 28 TDs, 15 INTs
- 152 of 270 (56.3%), 1,812 yards, 16 TDs, 6 INTs
If you got too caught up in these statistics, you likely would have been turned off by Wyoming’s Josh Allen. Fields’ college statistics don’t mean much at all to the Bears — or any other NFL team. They have three years of NFL tape on him to evaluate.
Fields played with a superior cast of players at Ohio State to what Williams had at USC, especially this past season’s roster. I’d stay out of the weeds, which is precisely where you are when you’re just looking at college numbers.
Hearing J.J. McCarthy is live for the No. 1 pick. Scouts and evaluators have loved him and it’s now getting more public to the draft cognoscenti. Hearing anything about that? — @themaxconnor1
There has been good buzz about McCarthy since the start of the college season, and this isn’t new. That’s why I prioritized getting over to Ann Arbor, Mich., during the Bears season to see McCarthy play. I was there for the victory over Ohio State and attempted to capture what NFL evaluators thought about him at the time.
There was some frustration that the Wolverines didn’t throw more, but there’s a lot to like about McCarthy. Scouts raved about him being a winner. He processes well with good movement ability and a quick release, and coach Jim Harbaugh raved about him to folks I know.
It’s so early in the process, I am confident the Bears are doing due diligence on McCarthy as well as Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and even Bo Nix. In the long run, I wonder if McCarthy is viewed as the kind of skilled timing-and-rhythm thrower that might thrive in the offense Sean Payton prefers with the Denver Broncos.
Do you actually see the Bears getting a first-round pick for Justin Fields? Even with them adding a late-round pick? — @colekmetfanclub
It seems rather unlikely the Bears could get a first-round pick in return for Fields. The only way I could envision that is if a team decides it would be a good idea to pick up Fields’ fifth-year option after acquiring him, and even then that seems like a steep price tag.
For Bears GM Ryan Poles, it’s all about creating a market — or the illusion of a market — for Fields. He has to convince an interested team that it’s bidding against another team, whether it is or not. This happens a lot more than you probably believe. Poles would be the envy of the league if he could score a first-round pick for Fields.
If the Bears only had the No. 9 pick in the draft, would there be talk of them trading up to No. 1 to take a QB? — David E.
Without a doubt, there would be chatter about the possibility of trading up to No. 1 or at least maneuvering into the top three or four to take a quarterback. There also would be chatter about which quarterbacks could be available at No. 9. The Bears are in a unique position with the ninth pick, their own, and the No. 1 pick via the Carolina Panthers. That’s what sets this up to be a momentous offseason for Ryan Poles and the organization.
With Saquon Barkley talented as a runner and receiver, wouldn’t he make perfect sense for the Bears in free agency? — Jimmy N., Bensenville
The Giants’ Saquon Barkley runs against the Vikings on Jan. 15, 2023, in Minneapolis. (Abbie Parr/AP)
Barkley is a good receiver out of the backfield, but he’s not in the class of Christian McCaffery or Jahmyr Gibbs. I’ve been pretty clear that teams need to be really careful sinking big money (and cap space) into a running back in a passing league.
I’m a little surprised the Bears made a strong bid to keep David Montgomery from heading to the Detroit Lions in free agency last year. They were right there, with Montgomery ultimately choosing a three-year, $18 million offer from the Lions. You can make the case that’s not big money, but let’s look at the Los Angeles Rams last season. Kyren Williams was third in the league in rushing with 1,144 yards (5.0 average). He was a fifth-round pick in 2022 and signed a four-year, $3.97 million contract.
Check out this chart of the primary running backs from Super Bowl-winning teams going back to 2009. You can win with “a guy” at running back, and teams have done it over and over again.
Here is the starting RB for each Super Bowl winning team since 2009 + their cap % pic.twitter.com/ZOhihtHAEp
— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) February 12, 2024
I would be a lot more intrigued about what the Bears will do at WR2 and TE2 (not to mention QB1) than by how they seek to supplement a running backs group that currently includes Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson.
Let’s say the Bears fall in love with Joe Alt or Olu Fashanu, one falls and they take them at No. 9. What would be the plan with Braxton Jones? Is he too valuable to be a swing tackle? Don’t think he can move inside? What value would he have as a trade piece? — @therealphedog
It’s certainly possible the Bears will consider a left tackle with their second pick in the first round. All things equal, I think they lean toward a wide receiver at this point, but I’m not sold on that at this early juncture. I imagine the Bears feel confident at guard with Teven Jenkins and hoping for a bounce-back season from Nate Davis.
Trading Jones, who will be in the third year of a four-year rookie contract, would not make sense to me. It’s never a good idea to trade quality offensive linemen. In that scenario, he would project as the swing tackle.
Column: A Super Bowl in Chicago? It’s OK to dream big about showing off a new stadium.
Should the Bears try to find a center in free agency or do you think a rookie could handle it? — @earl6868
A rookie could handle the job with a rookie quarterback if the Bears believe they have the right guy, someone mature, experienced and savvy enough to deal with the responsibilities of being the traffic cop on the offensive line. A lot of factors will play into this decision. You need to think about free agency and the draft as separate entities but part of one grand offseason puzzle. At the end, you want the pieces acquired via each avenue to fit together nicely.
The Bears can’t fill every need in the draft with a starting-caliber player. So they’ll need to be selective in weighing options at each position in free agency versus what could be available in various rounds of the draft. They currently lack a second-round pick, and that would be prime territory to grab a starting-caliber center. If they can get a second-round pick by trading quarterback Justin Fields, that would open a new realm of possibilities. Absent a second-rounder, it’s more likely they look to free agency for a center.
I’m getting ahead of myself but with the 17th opponent in the NFL schedule being determined by the respective finish of an AFC opponent, how will 2025 be determined? In 2021 it was the AFC West and the Bears went to Las Vegas. Will 2025 be the AFC West again? — @beej2991
To my knowledge, nothing has been finalized about the 2025 schedule, but I believe the Bears will play a road game against the corresponding finisher in the AFC West that season. They hosted the Houston Texans in 2022, visited the Cleveland Browns this past season and will host the New England Patriots in 2024 in the 17th games. Don’t hold me to this though.
