A coaching change did nothing to alter the Chicago Bears’ trajectory. Their losing streak reached seven games with a blowout loss to the San Francisco 49ers, and four games remain against teams with a combined 40-12 record.
Could more major changes be in store at Halas Hall? Brad Biggs begins his weekly Bears mailbag with that question.
As the losses pile up, does the scrutiny turn to general manager Ryan Poles and his role in what has been a terrible season? — Arthur L., Minooka
No doubt Poles has culpability in where the Bears find themselves, last in the NFL’s most difficult division and headed for a coaching search. They have to take a sober look at things from top to bottom at the end of the season and assess their trajectory as they seek input from coaching candidates. I don’t believe they are as far off as their record would indicate, and I say that based on the schedule they have played and how four or five games could have gone either way with one play at the end. To be very clear, that is nothing to celebrate and is definitely a loser’s lament, but I think the gap can be closed with much less work than other teams with similar records need.
In order for the Bears to become competitive sooner rather than later — and not take a step backward as they reboot — they have to hit on many more of the decisions they’re making than they miss on. It starts with hiring the right coach. That’s non-negotiable. Screw that up and the Bears will have no way out of this mess, not in terms of sustained success anyway. The Bears have to make shrewd decisions with current players. They have to hit much more than they miss in free agency, and they need to nail the draft.
As I wrote in the mailbag last week, all signs from President/CEO Kevin Warren indicate Poles is on solid ground.
“The next item I want to make sure we are clear about is Ryan Poles is the general manager of the Chicago Bears and he will remain the general manager of the Chicago Bears,” Warren said on Dec. 2. “Ryan is young, he is talented, he is bright, he is hard-working, he has done everything in his power on a daily basis to bring a winner to Chicago. I am confident in Ryan. My faith remains strong in Ryan.”
It wouldn’t make sense for Warren to fully back Poles — and that’s what he did in the news conference to discuss the decision to fire Matt Eberflus — and then flip and fire the GM at the end of the season. When the Bears fired Eberflus, they did so because the season was fractured, lost in a flurry of mind-numbing failures in the fourth quarter. While everyone is being evaluated at all times, I don’t see how Warren would decide to have Poles’ future hang in the balance of the final five games, the first of which was a 38-13 loss at San Francisco.
Warren could have fired Poles with Eberflus. He could have said the football operation remained under evaluation. He could have gone a variety of ways but he threw his support behind Poles, whom he called the point man for the coaching search. The Bears were hoping to get a little momentum when they turned things over to interim coach Thomas Brown and that didn’t happen. They’re trying to make the best out of a bad — and even more frustrating — situation. But I don’t think you hinge a GM decision on a five-game stretch with an interim coach in charge.
There will surely be comprehensive reviews of Poles’ work since 2022. His decision to hire Eberflus. His role in the search for an offensive coordinator last offseason that resulted in failure with Shane Waldron. His work in constructing the roster. Those are all topics Warren has insight on and surely will discuss with Poles as they seek ways to turn around the team’s fortunes sooner rather than later.
Poles’ job security is something of interest to folks in front offices around the league, and the general consensus is he will be safe. The only caveat from those I have chatted with is the possibility the Bears land on a new coach who has enough juice to bring a personnel man with him. That’s a possibility that cannot be dismissed. If you were paying attention to what Warren said, Poles appears to be in good standing for 2025.
For those of us who are mired in despair watching this merry-go-round hit yet another new QB, new coach and possibly a new GM rotation, is there anything legitimately good to hang our optimism on? Or are we just going to be sad forever? — @mabdacuma
When the schedule is released every year, one of the first exercises I perform is looking at the quarterbacks the Bears will face. That’s a pretty good way of judging how things might shake out months ahead.
I reference this because if you’re looking for a reason for hope, that has to be rooted in Caleb Williams. If he’s the guy the Bears believe he can become, things could turn around much faster than anyone probably realizes with the team mired in a seven-game losing streak, tied for the fourth-longest in a single season in franchise history. (The Bears lost 10 consecutive games to close the 2022 season, had eight-game losing streaks in 2002 and 1978 and seven-game skids in 1997 and 1969. That’s it for single-season losing streaks of that length in the team’s deep history.)
If you can remove the emotion from it, the current slide is definitely different than the one to close out Matt Eberflus’ first season in 2022 and even the six-game losing streak in the middle of the 2020 season. Williams offers more hope than the quarterback situations in those seasons did. It’s fair to say there is more talent on the roster now, and of course there have been the frustrating late-game losses that piled up and led to Eberflus’ firing.
Back to my original point: Most of the 12 teams that have five or fewer wins are in quarterback purgatory or worse. The Cincinnati Bengals (5-8) are the outlier with a proven elite performer at the position in Joe Burrow. The Dallas Cowboys, also 5-8, have the injured Dak Prescott, who has a 76-46 record as a starter and is in place on a massive contract.
After that, the Bears (4-9) have Williams. The New England Patriots (3-10) have fellow rookie Drake Maye, who has had some bright moments. The Carolina Panthers (3-10) have gotten a little bit of a boost from Bryce Young since he returned to the starting lineup, and he could be on the way up. Trevor Lawrence still offers upside to the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-10) in the estimation of some.
Then there are the Las Vegas Raiders (2-11), New York Giants (2-11), Tennessee Titans (3-10), New York Jets (3-10), Cleveland Browns (3-10) and New Orleans Saints (5-8). Most of those teams will be scrambling for a quarterback in the offseason and could be in the derby for Sam Darnold if he doesn’t re-sign with the Minnesota Vikings. From that standpoint, if you’re encouraged by Williams, the Bears offer more upside and hope than a lot of struggling teams.
How much impact, if any — and knowing there are only 32 of these jobs out there — do you think the dysfunction seen with ownership and senior management could impact the Bears’ ability to attract their ideal candidate? — @john_iwanski
Potential coaches will put the most stock in what they hear directly from Kevin Warren and Ryan Poles during the process. They will evaluate the pitch from Warren and Poles, how they view the roster and the future and how they portray the organizational structure, far more than what’s being said about the Bears or the past few decades of mostly mediocre football.
Does what you are referencing matter? Of course. It’s all a factor. But if Warren and Poles can make an attractive sell and spell out terms for the job that are appealing, I think the Bears will be in position to compete for their top candidate or two.
The candidates will have to sell themselves too. What will be critical is that the vision — from the top of the organization through the head coach — is aligned. If the candidate can establish goals and priorities that are in line with those of the Bears, they have a chance to be successful. Will they agree on every point? Of course not. But healthy debate is preferred, right?
The top coaching candidates will have to believe a system is in place that can foster success and winning. If the Bears can project that, their history of struggles will not be a major factor.
Column: Leave it to the Chicago Bears to botch a coach firing even your Aunt Martha could see coming
Do you believe the Bears are sharing a short list of head coaching candidates or are things we see simply media and fan speculation? — @mbhawkeyes
I believe all the names you are seeing right now are speculation, much of it sensible. It’s no secret who some of the in-demand candidates will be when the interview cycle cranks up, but at this early juncture — with four games remaining — I don’t think the Bears are working with a “short” list. They would be wise to be open-minded as they perform due diligence in gathering information on possibilities, a process that has definitely already started.
I do think when they get to the end of the season and start putting together a list of candidates, they will want to have the scope somewhat narrowed. They interviewed, I believe, a combined 23 candidates for the GM and coaching positions in 2022 before hiring Ryan Poles. That number seems really high.
I’m not sure you’re putting yourself in the best position if you get to a point where one interview leads into the next and then the next and then another one. Before you know it, the notes you’re taking become hard to track as you roll from one to the next. Let’s say they talk to 10 candidates. By the time they get to No. 10, are they less cognizant of something really good that No. 2 said?
It makes sense to cast a wide net right now, and I don’t think you start thinking about a short list until you get closer to Black Monday.
With renewed scrutiny of Ryan Poles’ decisions, one choice that hasn’t gotten much attention is letting Darnell Mooney go in free agency. Mooney’s first years with the Bears showed considerable promise and his final year, though a bit disappointing, didn’t really contradict that. He’s having a strong season with Atlanta and while Keenan Allen certainly has a special skill set, Mooney costs half as much, is younger, more available and the true deep threat that the Bears currently lack. Mistake to let him go? — Dennis R.
There has been a handful of questions about Mooney this season. The 2020 fifth-round pick certainly has enjoyed a strong season playing with Kirk Cousins for the Falcons. Mooney has 57 receptions for 873 yards (15.3 average) with five touchdowns and is coming off a 142-yard game in a 42-21 loss at Minnesota. He has been consistent with six games of 86 yards or more.
The Bears made a run at signing Mooney to an extension during training camp in 2023. As I reported at the combine and before the start of free agency, the team had an offer on the table that was roughly $30 million over three years. He declined the deal, and credit to him because a poor season — the entire passing game was broken — didn’t crush his market. The Falcons signed Mooney to a three-year, $39 million contract (with $26 million guaranteed) that opened eyes around the league.
Mooney totaled only 907 receiving yards in 2022 and 2023 with the Bears. I’m pretty sure had they paid Mooney $10 million a year before last season kicked off, there would have been considerable backlash from regular mailbag readers. The Falcons, perhaps with a good idea of what Mooney could do with former Bears GM Ryan Pace in Atlanta, stepped up and paid him.
I agree the Bears would be better off with Mooney than Allen, but they’re different players and Mooney wouldn’t thrive in the role Allen is playing — and vice versa. I also believe DJ Moore remains a legitimate deep target and think we will see more downfield action for Rome Odunze as his career develops. Odunze is averaging 13 yards per reception.
I thought Fox broadcaster Jonathan Vilma made an interesting comment Sunday, saying the Bears “do not have a wide receiver who is (skilled) at beating man coverage on intermediate routes.” The Bears have three talented, similar, big-bodied receivers but no true sub-4.40 burners. Do you think the loss of speedy Darnell Mooney has hurt DJ Moore this season, and if Keenan Allen departs in free agency, do you expect the Bears to look for speed in the middle rounds of the draft, someone like a Johnny Knox or Taylor Gabriel? — Tom N., Dayton, Ohio
It wouldn’t surprise me if the Bears seek a fast wide receiver to join the mix with Tyler Scott, another player with ample speed, to round out the group. I would be surprised if Allen is re-signed based on his age (33 in April), where the Bears are now and more pressing roster needs.
I didn’t hear the broadcast, but I would disagree from the standpoint that Allen can get open off the line of scrimmage against any type of coverage. Speed isn’t necessarily a predictor of a receiver’s ability to get open on intermediate routes. You don’t have to be a 4.35-second guy in the 40-yard dash. It’s about understanding how to attack leverage and create separation and having enough quickness at the top of the route. None of that is directly tied to top-line speed.
What the Bears have right now is an explosive No. 1 wide receiver in Moore, who is not a highly defined route runner. He’s an explosive catch-and-run target who can get downfield. Rome Odunze is a big-body target who profiles as an X receiver and can get down the field. This early in Odunze’s career, he isn’t going to consistently win at the line of scrimmage against good one-on-one coverage, but he could develop that. He has red-zone upside, as we’ve seen recently, and can make contested catches while possessing good straight-line speed. Allen is the guy who can win off the line of scrimmage and is really nuanced when it comes to finding voids in zone coverage and setting up defenders. But he’s probably not part of the future.
The Bears need a speed element in play next season, whether that’s Scott or someone else. It’s not just about the ability to connect on go routes either. It’s more important to have that player in the offense to run off coverage at the third level and create space underneath. That’s how you get nice clearings to hit Moore or Odunze on a deep dig route because a burner has taken the safeties out of the picture.
How involved will and/or should Caleb Williams be in the next head coaching hire? — Drew, Washington
A similar question popped up in the mailbag last week, and folks running successful organizations would tell you it doesn’t make sense to consult a player — even the franchise quarterback — about a move at this level. No team that has faith in what it’s doing and the processes it has in place is going to say, “Hey, we need to see how the quarterback or the locker room feels about this.”
Williams and his future absolutely should be a huge part of the hiring process, though. The Bears will want a detailed plan about Williams and the offense from candidates they interview. That starts with the candidates’ opinion of Williams and how they view his strengths, weaknesses and areas for growth.
What type of system does the coach want to run? Who does the coach have targeted as a play caller if the coach won’t be calling offensive plays? What does the coach envision his staff looking like? What type of players does the coach want to surround Williams with on offense? All of that is centric to Williams and his development, and therefore his future is a huge part of the process.
Will the Bears keep Williams in the loop and share some of their thoughts along the way? Perhaps. Will a candidate want to chat with Williams? That would not be unheard of. But in terms of Williams having even an indirect voice in the process, I don’t think that would be wise.
“I don’t know about specific input, but it’s got to be a major part of an interview process,” Ryan Poles said at the news conference after Matt Eberflus was fired. “Making sure that there is a plan for a young quarterback in this league.”
What’s the best-case scenario for the Bears when it comes to their first-round draft pick? Chances they have a top-10 pick? — Marc C., Chicago
If the draft order were based on the current standings, the Bears would be picking at No. 9. The issue they face is it’s an unusual season with a lot of really bad teams. The Raiders and Giants are 2-11. The Raiders have lost nine straight games and the Giants eight straight. Next, there’s a group of six teams with 3-10 records: the Patriots, Panthers, Jaguars, Titans, Jets and Browns.
The Bears are effectively two games behind the six 3-10 teams in the draft order because they would lose the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker with each of them. Forget head-to-head or anything like that — the tiebreaker for draft order is strength of schedule, and the Bears, to date, have had the most difficult schedule in the league, according to our friends at Tankathon. So you’re looking at a scenario in which the Patriots, Panthers, Jaguars, Titans, Jets or Browns would have to go 2-2 (or better) down the stretch and the Bears would have to lose out just to move up to No. 8.
It really is an odd year with so many teams having bad records.
- At this juncture last season, entering Week 15, three teams had three victories or fewer compared with eight now.
- In 2022, three teams had three wins or fewer at this point.
- In 2021, four teams at this point were 3-10 or worse.
- In 2020, three teams had three wins or fewer.
As you can see, a lot of bad football is being played, and the Bears are part of one-quarter of the league that is really struggling to win.
Right behind the Bears is a collection of three 5-8 teams: the Saints, Bengals and Cowboys. New Orleans and Dallas are both playing backup quarterbacks because of injuries.
I’d say the Bears’ 2025 pick likely will fall somewhere between No. 8 and No. 12, most likely ninth or 10th when they reach the finish line.
With the organizational chaos and lack of a defining bad moment like Tyrique Stevenson had, it feels like Tremaine Edmunds has escaped scrutiny. Only 45 solo tackles is astonishing. Has he regressed or is this just who he always was? Even with a bad dead cap hit, will the Bears move on in 2025? — @gregfeltes
Edmunds is third on the team with 45 solo tackles and has 37 assists to also rank third with 82 total tackles. In 15 games last season, he had 69 solos and 45 assists, so he’s off that pace. One explanation is the Bears have not been as good on the defensive line. For linebackers to really shine, they need to be playing behind a stout group of linemen.
The issue with Edmunds is he doesn’t pile up splash plays you expect to see from a guy who is so highly paid. The Bears signed him in free agency a year ago to a four-year, $72 million deal to come over from the Buffalo Bills. A year later, it’s the third-richest deal for an inside linebacker at $18 million per season, just behind ex-Bear Roquan Smith of the Baltimore Ravens and Fred Warner of the 49ers.
Edmunds has one sack, one interception (he had four last season), five pass deflections, two tackles for a loss and three QB hits. More than just tackle totals, what you’re hoping to see is the big plays on the ball or behind the line of scrimmage, and he just doesn’t fill those categories as much as you would like, especially for a guy with his range and athletic traits.
Getting rid of Edmunds after this season would be costly. He has a $14.9 million base salary for 2025 with $8.2 million fully guaranteed. There’s a $100,000 workout bonus as well. It’s premature to say what will happen until we see what the team does with the coaching staff. From a cap standpoint, it would be easier to make a move after next season, when he would have only one season remaining on the deal.
I don’t think Edmunds has regressed this season. He’s just not a consistent splash player and I think it’s in part because his instincts and reactions aren’t at an elite level. Certainly something to ponder when looking ahead to next season, but I believe the Bears will need to prioritize the defensive line. Get better in the trenches and Edmunds will look better.
Do coaches and GMs sign NDAs? It seems like no one ever talks about insider issues with owners after they are fired. It would be great to hear the real deal from someone that left, even if disgruntled. — @ricomuscatel
The reason you don’t hear ex-coaches or former front-office people breaking bad on the Bears (or any other team) is that would be one of the fastest ways to land on a “we cannot hire this guy” list. No general manager or coach would want to hire someone who has publicly badmouthed their previous employer.
These guys don’t have to sign non-disclosure agreements when they’re fired. It’s just common sense. Good question though.
Please explain the video review overturn of Caleb Williams’ forward pass even though the 49ers were out of challenges. This sounds more like college rules where the booth makes all the calls. If so, they should get rid of the challenge flags. — Ken S.
The NFL is involving replay assist to get clear and obvious calls on the field changed in a timely manner. The play you are referring to was clearly not a forward pass. The ball went behind Williams and therefore was properly ruled a fumble.
Yes, 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan was out of challenges after going 1-for-2 earlier in the game, but replay assist is used when an obvious call is wrong and can be quickly reversed without a full-blown review. The change in the call on the field had nothing to do with Shanahan’s bogus challenge.
