The Chicago Bears are back at Halas Hall, preparing for Sunday’s road game against the Washington Commanders after taking a three-game winning streak into their bye week.
Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams and the offense appeared to make major strides during that stretch — but do the numbers back that up? The Tribune’s Brad Biggs looks deeper to begin his weekly Bears mailbag.
Caleb Williams’ growth and recent performance has been impressive. As best as I can tell, he hasn’t had to encounter the same volume of blitzes and heavy pressure that he did in the first few games. Have you seen any evidence of progress in his ability to recognize blitzes and hit the hot read? — Allan C., Solon, Ohio
Congratulations. You hit on one of the areas in which Williams and the offense have been a ton better in the last three games than the first three.
The Bears were a mess against the blitz at the start of the season and have been lethal against it over the last three games. The numbers don’t lie. Here are Williams’ statistics when teams rush five or more:
- Weeks 1-3: 10 of 24 (41.7%), 56 yards (2.3 per attempt), 1 TD, 1 INT, 5 sacks, 45.8 passer rating, 5.6 QBR
- Weeks 4-6: 19 of 24 (79.2%), 245 yards (10.2 per attempt), 3 TDs, 0 INTs, 2 sacks, 148.8 passer rating, 91.7 QBR
It’s like night and day with identical passing volume and, interestingly, pretty much the same time before each throw. Williams averaged 2.75 seconds per attempt versus the blitz in the first three games and 2.82 seconds in the last three.
Protection has been better. He was hit 14 times on a blitz through the first three games and only four times over the last three. This is throwing an awful lot of statistics at you and we could be in the weeds for a while if we wanted, but I don’t think we need to go deeper to understand he has shown some real gains.
It’s a combination of recognizing presnap what’s going to come and making an adjustment or check before the play begins, as well as reacting and diagnosing where the ball needs to go postsnap with more proficiency. Credit goes to the offensive line for communicating better how it will handle pressure and for giving Williams time and to the skill-position players for getting open. I bet Williams would tell you offensive coordinator Shane Waldron has had him better prepared, too, with good calls against pressure. Williams has shown the most improvement, but the offense as a whole has gotten better in this regard.
This is just one way we can study what Williams has done in what remains a very small sample size and say, “He’s legitimately getting better.” That was more of a mind-bending exercise during the rookie seasons of other quarterbacks who have gone through Halas Hall in recent years.
Tracking Caleb Williams: How the Chicago Bears QB is performing in his rookie season
Will this make future opponents reluctant to pressure Williams? No. They’re still going to bring pressure and try to exploit matchups they believe are tilted in their favor. We’ll get a better handle on how he’s playing against the blitz when the Bears get into the thick of the NFC North schedule.
I’d point out the last three games included two at Soldier Field and one at a neutral site with a heavy pro-Bears crowd. It’s a little more challenging to face pressure on third down when you’re on the road in a loud stadium. Here’s where the six opponents, beginning with the most recent, rank through Week 7 in pass defense (yards allowed per game and per attempt):
- Jaguars: 31st ypg, 30th ypa
- Panthers: 25th, 31st
- Rams: 18th, 27th
- Colts: 23rd, 24th
- Texans: 4th, 2nd
- Titans: 3rd, 4th
As you can see, the degree of difficulty has been low the last three games. That’s part of the equation too. What did you do and whom did you do it against? When you look at how the next three opponents stack up, it’s fair to expect the passing game to continue to produce:
- Commanders: 12th, 26th
- Cardinals: 26th, 32nd
- Patriots: 24th, 25th
I would note the Commanders are sixth in sacks per pass attempt (9.95%) — slightly ahead of the Bears — so Dan Quinn’s defense has been getting home but also has a propensity to allow big plays.
Instead of being a buyer at the trade deadline, what are the chances Ryan Poles is a seller? I’m thinking Nate Davis and Khalil Hebert. — Thomas B., Johnsburg
There were numerous questions about potential trades with the deadline less than two weeks away at 3 p.m. Nov. 5. I would describe Poles as aggressive in a calculated manner. While nothing can be ruled out, I’ve been pretty clear in this space that I don’t expect a big acquisition unless a sudden need emerges.
Plenty of folks have asked for weeks about the potential addition of an offensive lineman. The Bears hope to have Ryan Bates and Larry Borom back from injured reserve in the near future. Folks banging the drum for a trade to supplement the line have either forgotten or are overlooking the potential return of these veterans.
In terms of being a seller, I’d also be a little surprised if something came together. Would the Bears be willing to trade Davis? Sure. They told you as much when he was a healthy inactive for the last game in London, and they signaled as much the week before when he was behind Bill Murray on the depth chart. Is this a realistic move? I think it’s more likely the Bears wind up releasing Davis during the season, especially if they need a roster spot for Bates or Borom.
Davis has an $8.75 million base salary, and the same level of play that led the Bears to demote him is available for the other 31 teams to review. If the Bears are going to put Murray on the field for the first offensive snaps of his NFL career, don’t you figure other teams would explore other alternatives before offering to trade for a veteran making a lot of money? Davis looks like the kind of player who could benefit from a change of scenery, but I have serious doubts such a change would be created by a trade.
As for Herbert, my opinion is he provides more value to the Bears — as a reliable backup who knows the offense and as a kickoff returner — than he would in a trade that might be nothing more than a pick swap. In the event something happens to D’Andre Swift or Roschon Johnson, Herbert can step right in. And with more than half the season to go, odds are decent he’ll be needed for a larger role at some point.
If the Bears moved Herbert and got little in return, they would be scrambling if a need arose unless Travis Homer was back from finger surgery. And Herbert is a better offensive option than Homer, whose primary role is as a core special teams player.
Is this Sunday a revenge game for Montez Sweat? In general, how often is revenge a motivating factor in a player’s performance assuming there’s a trigger (trade, draft selection, etc.)? — @brooklyncorn
I won’t try to speak for Sweat, but I doubt he looks at this as a “revenge game.” The first point I would make is that players are pretty good, generally speaking, about not putting more emphasis on one game over another. There are so few of them and they all carry a ton of weight.
Revenge implies that the Commanders did wrong by Sweat, and I don’t know that they did. They had a heck of a run drafting defensive linemen, and guys in front of him got paid: tackle Jonathan Allen (2017 draft), who is out for the season with a torn pectoral muscle, and tackle Daron Payne (2018). That made it difficult for the Commanders to write another huge contract for a defensive lineman. They were effectively rebooting and in a position where they could have used extra draft capital.
The trade to the Bears helped Sweat achieve his goal quicker of receiving a contract extension. The key players in the front office when Sweat was in Washington are gone. The coaches are gone. The owner is gone. I’d bet most of the folks remaining are people Sweat maintains a pretty good relationship with.
The Commanders believed in Sweat enough to use a first-round draft pick on him in 2019 when some teams had medical concerns about him coming out of Mississippi State. The Commanders helped develop him. Obviously he did a lot of that work on his own, but I’m not convinced there’s anything here to avenge. Of course he’ll want to excel against former teammates and in front of fans who once rooted for him.
After self-scouting during the bye, how does the offense continue to improve? — @mmesq11
The most obvious area in which the Bears need to improve is starting faster. They’ve scored only 10 points in the first quarter, which ranks 30th in the league. It’s tough sledding when you’re consistently falling behind in games and taking three or four series to find a rhythm. The biggest problem is the Bears have been dreadful on third down in the first quarter.
“I wouldn’t say it’s the script,” tight end Cole Kmet said. “It’s player execution and us being better in that regard. Just having that mentality of coming out fast, not getting our beaks wet. We’ve got to be out there ready to roll. Whether it’s handling our warmups or whatever that is, we’ve just got to be more dialed in to start the game. I know that’s a focus for us this week.”
The coaching staff would tell you the offense needs to get better in every regard, and there is a lot to tighten up. The Bears need to run the ball more consistently. They’re averaging 104.8 yards per game (24th in the league) and 3.74 yards per attempt (31st). The best way to improve that is to sprinkle in more explosive runs.
The good news is they had seven explosive runs (10 yards or more) in the blowout victory over the Jaguars after totaling only eight through the first five games. Caleb Williams had three of those against Jacksonville and is more than capable of picking up chunks of yardage when the opponent is locked in man coverage. If the Bears can have more success running the ball, it would allow the offense to be more balanced.
Do the Bears shuffle the offensive line this week with injured guys set to return or close to it? — Jacob R., Plainfield
I don’t believe there will be any shuffling this week in terms of the starting lineup, and I’m not expecting a roster move. My hunch is the Bears will begin the 21-day practice window for Larry Borom on Wednesday. He has been on injured reserve since the preseason finale in Kansas City, where he suffered a high right ankle sprain. Considering the time he has missed, it wouldn’t be surprising if the coaching staff wants to see Borom practice for at least two weeks before making a roster move.
The hunch with Ryan Bates — and I’m just reading the tea leaves here — is he’s maybe another week from returning to practice. He has been on IR since the start of Week 2 with a shoulder/elbow injury. Bates has been doing rehab work and is definitely closer. The idea behind putting him on IR was allowing him to reach a point where, once he returns, his arthritic condition wouldn’t sideline him again later in the season. If Bates has a good week of rehab, he might be back in the practice mix in another week.
Braxton Jones in Year 3, while improved, still appears vulnerable to the bull rush. In the offseason, what is the highest priority for improvement on the O-line? — @stephenclapp1
That’s a good question. I think Jones has been the Bears’ most consistent offensive lineman. There’s a long way to go and certainly he has areas he wants to improve. There is only a small handful of elite left tackles who aren’t going to have issues with the bull rush from time to time.
The most important attribute for players protecting the quarterback’s blind side is to have great feet and the ability to move and mirror a pass rusher with elite speed. That’s why you hear coaches and scouts talk about offensive tackles having the footwork of a basketball player. Jones has that. If you can find a massive human — think someone like San Francisco 49ers left tackle Trent Williams (6-foot-5, 320 pounds) — who is also a rock against power rushes, then you’re looking at a guy who is going to make a ton of money.
In terms of priorities for the offensive line, the Bears will have to replace one starting guard and potentially two as Teven Jenkins will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season. They have only short-term options at center. The Bears can sort through what they want to do at left tackle with Jones and rookie Kiran Amegadjie in the offseason. I think the heavy lifting will happen on the interior.
When will we know what AFC division the Bears’ 17th opponent is coming from in 2025? — @beej2991
If the rotation holds true and the NFL doesn’t change anything, I expect the Bears to have a road game against an AFC West team in 2025. The Bears play the New England Patriots (AFC East) in Week 10 this season and played the Cleveland Browns (AFC North) in 2023 and the Houston Texans (AFC South) in 2022.
The Bears will have eight home games and nine road games in 2025, so they’re looking at a road trip to Kansas City, Denver, Las Vegas or Los Angeles to face the corresponding finisher in the AFC West — again, presuming the rotation remains the same. But this is not set in stone. If the schedule were based on the current standings, it would be Viva Las Vegas.
Now in his third season, Matt Eberflus has only won three games on the road — all against teams with losing records. Any sense why that is or why there’s such a big disparity between his success at Soldier Field vs. when they’re on the road? Is it a mental block? Lack of preparation or inability to adapt to different strategies while playing on the road? Kind of a red flag as the Bears enter the belly of the season. — Gerry M.
The Bears have been woeful on the road under Eberflus with a 3-16 record. The first thing I would point out is the team and roster were really bad in 2022. The Bears were outmanned and outperformed pretty much everywhere. As you know, they really struggled through the first half of last season, and as they began to play better, they had four road games in the second half of the schedule: losses to all three NFC North rivals and the bad loss in Cleveland.
It’s a factor, for sure, but I think the overriding thing here is the Bears were a pretty bad team for most of those road games. They lost in Week 2 this season against a really good Texans team and then the following week in Indianapolis.
I will point out two of the three road wins under Eberflus came against opponents that entered the game at .500. The Patriots were 3-3 when the Bears upset them 33-14 in 2022, and the Commanders were 2-2 before the Bears thumped them 40-20 last season in Landover, Md.
What is the timetable for Zacch Pickens’ return? — @sirsquids
My hunch is Pickens, who has been inactive the last four games with a groin injury that originally popped up in the preseason, will be on the practice field Wednesday. The Bears chose not to place Pickens on injured reserve. They weren’t in a crunch for bodies on the interior of the defensive line and knew he probably would be out for only about three or four weeks. Including the bye week, he has had five weeks to rehabilitate, so my bet is he’s ready to get going this week unless there has been a setback we aren’t aware of.
With all the talk of Nate Davis and Khalil Herbert being moved before the deadline, have you heard anything about Velus Jones? In theory, he provides some versatility out of the backfield like D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson if used as a running back. But could he fetch more in a trade than Herbert? — Nick S.
I know other teams were intrigued by Jones as a returner the last two seasons, but his struggles securing the catch on punts and more recently on kickoffs probably has diminished that value. The opportunity to trade Jones likely has passed. Who knows? Maybe a team is out there willing to take a flier on him, but I can’t imagine he would bring a whole lot in return.
