A highly anticipated Chicago Bears season is upon us, just four days from Sunday’s opener against the Tennessee Titans at Soldier Field.
Will the Bears break through in Year 3 under general manager Ryan Poles and coach Matt Eberflus and return to the playoffs for the first time since the 2020 season? Brad Biggs’ weekly Bears mailbag begins there.
Real simple, do the Bears make the playoffs this season? — Ray Y., Ontario
I think so. While strength of schedule based on last year’s standings can be misleading, I’ve thought all offseason that this slate sets up well for the Bears. You can use a ton of rankings or statistics and attack this question from a lot of angles. I was glancing at Pro Football Talk’s Week 1 power rankings and something jumped out at me. Not the Bears coming in at No. 13. What struck me was the teams at the bottom of the rankings. The Bears have seven games against the bottom eight teams: the Minnesota Vikings (No. 25, two games), Tennessee Titans (26), Washington Commanders (27), Arizona Cardinals (30), New England Patriots (31) and Carolina Panthers (32).
Making the playoffs isn’t quite the achievement it used to be. With seven teams in each conference qualifying, every year 43.8% of the NFL can claim they were a “playoff team.” The pendulum will swing for some teams, and I think the Bears will be one of them.
What does it take to get into the playoffs? Since the regular season was expanded to 17 games in 2021, no 10-win team has been shut out. Finish 9-8 and it can get complicated. Last year there were six 9-8 teams and only the Green Bay Packers advanced to the postseason from that group. In 2022 there were four 9-8 teams and two reached the postseason.
It’s a tall task for any team with a rookie quarterback, but few rookies have the kind of talent around them Caleb Williams will enjoy. I don’t know if the defense will be great, but it should be solid. If the offense is more explosive — it ought to be — and the Bears can run the ball with some consistency, I like their chances to make the playoffs.
Following camps and the preseason what are you hearing around the league about expectations for the first-round QBs? It seems like if J.J. McCarthy hadn’t been hurt and if the Patriots had an offensive line, all of them would have been named starters other than Michael Penix Jr. — @inanimatecr
Hype and expectations for rookie quarterbacks almost always get out of hand. That’s the nature of the beast in the NFL these days, and it was a historic draft this year with six quarterbacks selected in the first 12 picks. It could be that only two really flourish, and I’d be stunned if more than three have long-term success. That’s what history tells us anyway when you look at the success and failure rates of quarterbacks selected in Round 1.
The headliners, of course, are the Bears’ Caleb Williams and the Commanders’ Jayden Daniels, the top two picks. The Patriots will start Jacoby Brissett, at least to begin the season, ahead of No. 3 pick Drake Maye. The Denver Broncos named No. 12 pick Bo Nix as their starter, and as you mentioned, Michael Penix Jr. is backing up Kirk Cousins in Atlanta and the Vikings’ McCarthy suffered a season-ending knee injury.
Almost everything I have heard regarding Daniels has been positive. It sounds like he really has taken to being a pro, and the Bears have said the same thing about Williams. Daniels looked pretty good in the preseason, and from a distance everything seems positive. Is that because he’s performing that well or is there a glow around the franchise after a complete reboot — new owner, general manager, coach and QB?
The Commanders have legitimate questions about their offensive line and Daniels doesn’t have the skill-position talent around him that Williams does, but I am intrigued to see how he looks and if he can avoid taking some of the big hits he absorbed at LSU.
Nix is super interesting, too, and I think he graded out pretty well for the Bears in the predraft process. Was it a tough choice between Williams and Nix? I’m not saying that at all. I’m just saying I bet if you stacked the top six quarterbacks in the draft class, the Bears’ list would have had Nix higher than No. 6.
He made 61 starts in college between Auburn and Oregon and attempted 1,936 passes. Think about that for a second. Some quarterbacks are being drafted with high picks after starting one season, maybe 1½ or two. Nix saw everything there was to experience at the college level and now is paired with coach Sean Payton, who has to be out to prove he can have sustained success without the benefit of Drew Brees. It’s an interesting situation. Again, not as much skill talent around Nix as Williams has, but after the Kansas City Chiefs, the AFC West doesn’t look like a difficult division.
What are the expectations? You start with basics. Take care of the football. The first thing that will get a rookie — or any quarterback — in big trouble is being a turnover machine. I don’t think Daniels or Nix is necessarily expected to guide his team to the playoffs this season. But if they can take care of the ball and themselves, knowing when to get rid of the ball and avoid a brutal hit, they ought to be able to show some natural improvement during the second half of the season. The same more or less applies to Williams, but the roster around him leads you to believe the playoffs could be realistic for the Bears.
As for Maye, it’s not just the offensive line in New England that needs help. That roster as a whole is in pretty rough shape, so the Patriots might be making the wise choice in rolling with Brissett for now. They probably can’t keep the No. 3 pick on the sideline for too long, especially if the losses begin to mount. I will have much more on the rookie quarterback class in Sunday’s Tribune.
What position group do you need to see improve the most Week 1? — giuseppe199720
I assume you’re asking which position group needs the most improvement from last season to this season and not from the preseason, which has such a small sample size that it’s really difficult to gauge a performance and try to look ahead to games of actual consequence.
If we’re talking about which group needs to improve the most from 2023, that’s simple. A lot of these mailbag questions can take you in a multitude of directions, but this one leads to only one area: quarterback. It’s a passing league and the Bears were deficient in that department last year, the year before that and … well, you get the picture.
That’s why they invested the No. 1 pick in Caleb Williams. That’s why a new offensive coaching staff is in place. That’s why general manager Ryan Poles bulked up on the offensive side of the ball. It’s about the quarterback, and if you don’t have a franchise one, good luck being a perennial contender for the postseason, let alone the Super Bowl.
Do you think Nate Davis is on a short leash? His play really hasn’t been above replacement level. — @mil77000902
The Bears head into the season hoping for continuity on the offensive line, which has been fleeting the last several seasons. If they can avoid making changes, they might have a chance to grow and improve, but there were moving parts in training camp and the preseason with Davis and Ryan Bates out of the lineup. Basically as soon as Davis returned from a groin injury, Bates was out with a shoulder issue, so the idea of Bates competing with Coleman Shelton for the starting center position never got off the ground. Heck, Bates couldn’t even compete for the right guard job after Matt Eberflus more or less put Davis on notice.
The good news is Bates is back on the practice field and I would expect him to be capable of contributing very soon if needed. The Bears expect Davis to play good football. If he doesn’t, they have enough depth to swap him out. But I would bet top dollar that offensive line coach Chris Morgan really hopes he doesn’t have to make any changes in the near future. If he were a baseball manager, he would have worn out a path from the dugout to the pitcher’s mound because of the constant back-and-forth.
What is one question we should be thinking about for the defense? Mostly the same group back so I am thinking it will only be better as it was during the second half of last season. — Gene T., Pontiac
I could go a lot of ways with this answer. It’s reasonable to expect the Bears to be better defensively because, as you stated, they have a lot of guys back and, more important, a nice core of young players who should continue to ascend. They don’t have a lot of players on that side whom you look at and say, “Boy, they’re trying to squeeze another year of production out of him.” New safety Kevin Byard III, 31, falls into that category, but the Bears were considering a variety of factors, including the leadership he can provide for a young secondary.
Most folks will be looking to see if the pass rush is improved, and with a full season of Montez Sweat, improvement from Gervon Dexter and maybe some new wrinkles courtesy of defensive coordinator Eric Washington, that’s a reasonable hope.
One thing I wonder about is takeaways. Matt Eberflus preaches that over and over again, and the Bears were very good in 2023, tying for fifth in the league with 28. I wonder about this because historically that’s one metric that can be difficult to sustain from year to year. Of the top five defenses in takeaways last season, only two (San Francisco 49ers, tied for second, and Buffalo Bills, tied for fourth) ranked in the top five in 2022.
Takeaways can rely on flukes in terms of how the ball bounces and who is in proximity when it does. Tipped passes can do funny things on plays that turn into interceptions or near interceptions. The Bears should remain pretty darn good in this area, especially if the pass rush is improved and they are forcing quarterbacks to get the ball out sooner than they would like. Where they clearly need to improve is the red zone. That was a problem last season as they ranked 28th.
What one player’s performance does the success of the defense hinge on the most this season? Montez Sweat? An improved Gervon Dexter? Other? — Alex S., Naperville
Another big-picture question about the defense. I like that you started by naming a couple of guys on the line because that’s where it all starts on both sides of the ball. The Bears won’t become an upper-echelon defense without dominant play in the trenches. Sweat is sort of the obvious answer, and I can’t argue with Dexter and how significant he will be.
I will say that nose tackle Andrew Billings might be underrated in terms of “who is one guy the Bears cannot afford to lose this season.” He was really good as a glue guy in the middle of that unit last season and will be asked to shoulder a bigger load this year. They’re a little short on depth, especially experienced depth, in the middle of the line.
But I’ll veer from the obvious and throw out second-year cornerback Tyrique Stevenson. If he can make a big step forward and play more consistently, as he started to do in the second half of last season, the Bears can improve in some areas where they had problems. As good as cornerback Jaylon Johnson was in 2023 — and he was superb and a definite snub in NFL Network’s off-base ranking of the league’s top 100 players (voted on by players, by the way) — the Bears were last in the league allowing 7.73 yards per pass attempt.
They gave up too many big plays in the passing game, and part of that is because Stevenson took some lumps in his rookie season. He’s really physical and does a nice job of getting his hands on receivers at the line of scrimmage. When he didn’t — or was asked to play off — the results were up and down in 2023. For the Bears to get significantly better in this area, they need Stevenson to be more consistent. I think he’s up to the task, but it’s something to keep an eye on with this defense.
What are your expectations for the new kickoff rule in Week 1? More of what we saw in preseason or will we see more creative approaches from special teams coordinators? There is even speculation that head coaches will resort to just kicking out of the end zone to avoid returns. Thoughts? — @mrryancox
In the preseason 70.5% of kickoffs were returned, and I expect that number to dip in the regular season. How much? We’ll have to wait and see. But coaches wanted returns in the preseason. They wanted to see how their coverage teams performed. They wanted to see what the return team was trying. It was one giant experiment and no one would benefit from a touchback.
There will be instances when teams want to kick a touchback and give the receiving team possession at the 30-yard line. Game situations will dictate that. If we see a handful of returns for touchdowns in the first five or six weeks, you definitely could see the number of touchbacks climb.
It will be fun to see how it unfolds. Special teams coordinators I spoke with talked about the challenges of creating multiple levels of defenders on the coverage team. Think of it like a defensive line, linebackers and the secondary on defense. Under the old kickoff rules, a coordinator could create natural levels on his coverage unit by putting a slower player next to a faster one. That way, if the returner made it through the first level, the coverage team still had players in place to make a play.
Because the coverage team is so close to the blockers under the new rules, it’s more difficult to create natural layers. If the returner can break through the first level, it’s much more dangerous now.
The appointment of Phil Snow made a huge difference last season. Who is taking over his responsibilities from last season as I see he’s no longer listed as a Bears employee? — @gridassassin
Good question. The Bears brought in Snow as an analyst last season after Matt Eberflus assumed defensive coordinator responsibilities following the exit of Alan Williams. Snow served as an extra set of eyes and helped with advance scouting and probably self-scouting to some degree.
The biggest change to the defensive coaching staff this season was the addition of coordinator Eric Washington, but the Bears also hired Matt Pees as a “defensive analyst – advance/special projects.” That sounds an awful lot like what Snow did last season. The difference is Pees, the son of longtime NFL defensive coach Dean Pees, will be in the building full time. Pees was an assistant the last three seasons with the Falcons and before that spent two years with the Titans.
Do the Bears have enough talent and players to stay out of the NFC North basement this season? — @mred315
The Bears tied for third (or last) in the division in 2023 with the Vikings at 7-10. The Vikings look like a team in transition, and I think the Bears are in better shape than they are this season. Unless the Vikings get a higher level of play from quarterback Sam Darnold than he previously has displayed in his career, it will be difficult for them to challenge for the division title.
The Vikings have issues in the front seven on defense — and in the secondary for that matter — and my hunch is it will be feast or famine as they blitz a lot again this year in an effort to generate pressure. When it works, great. When it doesn’t, it will be big play city.
The Lions and Packers will be formidable, but the Bears probably have a better chance of winning the division than finishing last. I feel like they are on the upswing. With a rookie quarterback, though, you never know.
