We’re only a week away from the NFL combine in Indianapolis, where Chicago Bears general manager Ryan Poles, coach Matt Eberflus and their staffs will get a look at the top draft prospects.
Poles also will field questions from the media, most prominently about the team’s impending decision at quarterback while holding the Nos. 1 and 9 picks. Brad Biggs’ weekly Bears mailbag once again kicks off there.
What do you make of Kevin Warren’s comments? Is there a disconnect between him and Ryan Poles regarding the direction at QB? — @bearsburnerdc
I didn’t make a whole lot of Warren’s comments to WGN’s Jarrett Payton last week, and I’m certainly not going to extrapolate anything quarterback-related from his remarks.
“Justin has a rare combination of intelligence, of size, of strength and speed,” Warren said during the interview. “You forget how big of a man he is until you’re up on him. He’s not a small man. I just think every year, he’s going to continually get better. So I’m glad he’s on the Chicago Bears.”
Fields is an asset for the Bears right now. He’s under contract for 2024 with a fifth-year option for 2025 that has to be picked up or declined in a little more than two months. If the Bears are exploring avenues to trade Fields — and I believe they are — of course Warren is going to have glowing remarks. The Bears don’t benefit from being critical of any of their players — whether they’re in the team’s plans for the coming season or not.
In no way do Warren’s comments lead me to pause and consider if the Bears might be pondering a path other than drafting a quarterback in the first round. Let’s be real here too. What Warren said won’t boost Fields’ trade value with other teams. That will be shaped by the evaluations other teams do and the marketplace — meaning which other options are out there and what costs would be associated with them. Poles’ goal right now is to get legitimate interest from multiple teams. Or, as I have written previously, to create the illusion multiple teams are in play for Fields.
If the Bears don’t receive an offer for Fields they deem solid, they could consider keeping him on the roster this season. I tend to think they probably can put a deal together and given a choice would prefer that route. It surely will be a popular topic at the scouting combine next week in Indianapolis.
There’s no disconnect between Warren and Poles as far as I can tell. Poles is in charge of football operations and has been pretty clear that he keeps Warren apprised of where the team is, what’s coming next and why.
Do you believe Ryan Poles has made his decision on whether to trade the No. 1 pick? — @ryan__nfl
I sincerely doubt anything has been firmly decided at this point, but I’d be surprised if the Bears don’t use the No. 1 pick on a quarterback and I’d be stunned if they made a small trade down (say to between No. 2 and No. 4) and then didn’t take a quarterback. From my perspective, there is no internal debate in which the Bears are kicking around the idea of keeping Justin Fields versus drafting a quarterback. I believe the work being done is to determine which quarterback they should select. So the whole Fields versus Caleb Williams debate is a pointless exercise.
Can you provide your perspective, if you were Ryan Poles, when you would trade Justin Fields, given teams acquiring him need to do so well in advance of the draft? — @rgbears69
The best time for Poles to trade Fields is when he believes he has an offer on the table that he deems best for the Bears. That could be Thursday. That could be after spending a week in Indianapolis. That could be in mid-April. That could be on the morning of Day 2 of the draft. There’s no rush for Poles, but he will have to consider the parameters that interested teams have in mind for a deal. It’s about maximizing value in a trade, and if Poles can get multiple teams legitimately bidding for Fields, he would have an opportunity to do some serious negotiating.
Many think the Bears need to add a playmaker with WR2 upside, ideally through the draft. However, recent mock drafts suggest the top three WRs on the board may be gone by the time the Bears pick at No. 9. Do you expect the Bears to sign a free agent or roll the dice in the draft? — @cubes76
Three wide receivers never have been selected in the first eight picks. That could be tested this year. But if we see four quarterbacks come off the board before the Bears are on the clock at No. 9, I tend to think one of the top three receivers would be in play for Ryan Poles if that’s the direction he wants to go.
Some accomplished veterans could be available before the draft, although we don’t know how many actually will reach free agency. Some could re-sign with their current teams, and the franchise tag could be in play for a group that includes Tee Higgins, Mike Evans, Michael Pittman, Calvin Ridley and Marquise Brown. The next tier of potential free agents includes names such as Gabe Davis, Darnell Mooney, Tyler Boyd and Kendrick Bourne.
The money for some of these guys could run out quickly because not only is it a top-heavy draft for wide receivers, there are some intriguing Day 2 prospects as well. I’m of the mind that the Bears will look to draft a receiver at some point. They would be better off spending money in free agency on a center or maybe a backup tight end than paying for a veteran receiver. They should find a prospect they want to pair with DJ Moore.
Do you think the Bears would be willing to pay Lloyd Cushenberry, who’s 26 and by reports is the best center in free agency who is not coming off an injury? — @realistatheart1
Cushenberry, a third-round pick by the Denver Broncos in 2020, has made 57 career starts and is someone to keep an eye on in free agency. He has gotten better with experience throughout a host of changes in Denver, and he could command a contract averaging $10 million per year, perhaps a little more. Six centers currently average more than $10 million annually, with Jason Kelce of the Philadelphia Eagles at the top of the list at $14.25 million. As we know, players on the open market can maximize their value.
The good news is the Bears have a handful of options to consider. Connor Williams of the Miami Dolphins might have been the most sought-after option until he suffered a torn ACL in Week 14. I don’t think that will crush his market value, especially if teams feel good about the rehabilitation information they can get on him in mid-March. I don’t think he’ll have to settle for a prove-it deal. The question is when he’ll be ready to return to action.
Andre James of the Las Vegas Raiders is a little undersized but is another guy in position to be paid. Coleman Shelton of the Los Angeles Rams and Aaron Brewer of the Tennessee Titans are other possibilities.
There are some intriguing options in the draft, but the sweet spot for some of those players is Round 2 and right now the Bears don’t own a second-round pick. If they can acquire one (maybe in a Justin Fields trade?), it’s something to keep in the back of your mind. But if I had to guess, the Bears might prioritize a center in free agency and be willing to put more money into the offensive line.
I am not saying the Bears should do this, but here’s a thought I haven’t heard talked about. Tag and trade Jaylon Johnson for an early second-round pick this year or first-round pick next year. Get draft capital and free up even more cap space. With the large cap space this year, frontload free-agent contracts and extensions from this year to keep cap space for following years. Johnson’s value is at an all-time high, as it absolutely should be, so franchising vs. multiyear contract makes sense. His value next year probably won’t be higher although it could be slightly higher. You could look to lock him in next year or let him go and get a third-round compensatory pick. — Dan W.
The Bears were not offered a premium pick for Johnson in the very brief time he was on the market before the trade deadline last fall. The problem with your scenario is if the Bears deal Johnson, they have a hole in the secondary that Terell Smith might be able to fill but there’s no way of telling.
With Johnson in the mix, the Bears have skill and depth at cornerback with Tyrique Stevenson, Kyler Gordon and Smith. They’re all young too. Why not keep a strength a strength, reward a player who bet on himself and keep the focus on other positions of need? Tag and trade Johnson (if you can find a partner) and then have one injury at cornerback, and all of a sudden the Bears could be in a jam.
Johnson was fantastic last season. I’m not sure he was so good that another team would fork over a high draft pick to then sign him to a top-of-the-market deal. It’s an interesting thought but doesn’t seem realistic.
What’s the timeline for Jaylon Johnson’s deal? Should we expect some news after the combine, whether it be the tag or extension? — @daniel_larocco
There’s really no way of telling. These things can materialize in a matter of minutes or can drag out over months. The window for teams to use the franchise or transition tag opened Tuesday and closes at 3 p.m. March 4. Barring a multiyear extension before that deadline, the Bears are expected to place the franchise tag on Johnson. There’s no rush to do this, and it wouldn’t surprise me if GM Ryan Poles meets with Johnson’s representation at the scouting combine.
The deadline that really matters is July 17. That’s the last day the Bears can reach an agreement with Johnson on a multiyear deal. If the parties can’t hammer out something by then, he’s looking at playing the 2024 season on a one-year deal. You can bet Poles will be asked next week about the latest with Johnson. I don’t know that there will be any significant news, but you never know.
If the Bears draft Caleb Williams No. 1, will they also sign a veteran QB to start ahead of him for the first season? If so, who would be the best candidates? — Jerry G., Highland Park
If the Bears pick Williams at the top of the draft, I’d be surprised if they plan to have him wear a ballcap and carry a clipboard on the sideline to begin the season. Teams don’t do that very often these days. That being said, the Bears could seek to add an experienced or somewhat experienced quarterback to a mix that will include Tyson Bagent. That’s assuming they trade Justin Fields at some point, and there’s no guarantee that happens.
I’m not sure which attributes would be most attractive to Ryan Poles, coach Matt Eberflus and the offensive staff. If they’re seeking a player who has familiarity with the system, Drew Lock is set to be a free agent. A second-round pick by the Broncos in 2019, Lock spent the last two seasons with the Seattle Seahawks after he was part of the trade that sent Russell Wilson to Denver. So Lock would have intimate knowledge of offensive coordinator Shane Waldron’s playbook, and that could make him an asset.
Otherwise, you’re probably looking at well-traveled journeymen and not quarterbacks whom another team wants to give at least an opportunity to win a starting job.
Do the Bears have any players that will be given a raise based on playing time in their rookie contract? — Marcus S., Muncie, Ind.
Good question. You’re talking about what is called a PPE raise, or Proven Performance Escalator, which is based on playing time or selection to the Pro Bowl in the original voting (not as a replacement). The Bears don’t have any players who fall into that last category from the 2021 draft class.
They do have two players — offensive lineman Larry Borom and running back Khalil Herbert — who earned PPE raises for the final season of their rookie contracts.
Borom, a fifth-round pick in 2021, qualifies for a Level One PPE raise, which is equal to the right of first refusal (ROFR) tender for restricted free agents. Overthecap.com estimates that figure to be $2.828 million in 2024.
Borom qualifies for the PPE raise for Rounds 3-7 picks because he participated in a minimum of 35% of the offensive snaps in two of his first three seasons. Third- through seventh-round picks also are awarded Level One PPEs if they participate in an average of 35% of the offensive or defensive plays over their first three years. Borom also qualifies that way as he played in 47.7% of the offensive snaps through his first three seasons.
Herbert, a sixth-round pick, also qualifies for a Level One PPE raise to a base salary of $2.828 million in 2024. He reached the threshold by playing in more than 35% of the offensive snaps in 2022 (38%) and 2023 (45%).
PPE language is basic in the contract of every NFL rookie and is not negotiable. It’s notable that 2021 second-round pick Teven Jenkins did not qualify for a PPE raise. The threshold is more difficult to attain for second-round picks. He would have had to play in 60% of the offensive snaps in two of his first three seasons (he played 14.3% in 2021, 55.7% in 2022 and 64.7% in 2023) or 60% of the total offensive snaps for his first three seasons (he was at 44.7%). Therefore, Jenkins’ base salary for 2024 will remain slightly more than $1.8 million.
A Level Two PPE isn’t in play for any of these players as it requires 55% playing time in each of a player’s first three seasons.
The raises for Borom and Herbert are not guaranteed. It’s significant money as both were scheduled to have a base salary of $1.055 million, meaning the raises would be for $1.773 million. Defensive end Trevis Gipson and cornerback Kindle Vildor both qualified for PPE raises after the 2022 season and the Bears wound up releasing them. Sometimes the PPE raise can work against a player if the team doesn’t deem a marginal contributor to be worth the higher salary. It remains to be seen how the Bears will view Borom and Herbert with higher salaries.
Could the Bears use Kyler Gordon as more than a slot CB this season? Maybe as a FS when out of the nickel if the Bears choose not to prioritize the position this season? — @coachsmyth
I don’t like that idea. Gordon experienced real growth and development in Year 2, and one big reason is the Bears put him in one spot and left him there. He was dedicated to the nickel position after playing outside and inside as a rookie. The nickel position is basically a starter in every defense and you should look at it that way.
While Gordon was on the field for only 60.2% of the defensive snaps last season, that was because he suffered a broken thumb in the opener against the Green Bay Packers and missed the next four games. From Week 8 on, he was on the field for 80% or more of the snaps in every game but one (76.4%). The Bears need to find a starter to replace Eddie Jackson, not a part-time free safety to share the role with Gordon.
Do you see the Bears targeting a guard to put pressure on Nate Davis for this season or next year? — @colekmetfanclub
Davis didn’t play to the level the Bears hoped for last season, but they have more pressing issues up front. They need to find a center. Davis is due an $8.5 million base salary in 2024, $7 million of which is fully guaranteed. He can earn $500,000 for per-game roster bonuses and a $250,000 workout bonus. He isn’t going anywhere this season. The Bears have to hope another year in the building will lead to improved performance.
