The optimism of a three-game winning streak is a distant memory for the Chicago Bears, who followed up a final-play meltdown against the Washington Commanders with a total demolition by the Arizona Cardinals.
Talk of a possible run at a playoff berth has turned into questions about coach Matt Eberflus’ future. The Tribune’s Brad Biggs addresses that first in his weekly Bears mailbag.
Does Matt Eberflus keep his job if the Bears finish 9-8? What about 8-9? — @moss_j_andrew
There was an abundance of questions about Eberflus’ job security, and some believe he should have been fired after the loss in Arizona. There’s nuance to this, and only the most dysfunctional NFL franchises operate in a knee-jerk manner at midseason.
There’s an awful lot to unpack here, and I’ll try to capture the big picture because this isn’t the kind of decision that’s based on a single play or outcome.
I don’t believe Eberflus was under a playoffs-or-else mandate when the season began. At 4-4 and coming off consecutive dispiriting road losses, things are trending in the wrong direction. That’s fair to say. But Eberflus’ removal at the end of the season isn’t a fait accompli. A lot of football remains to be played with nine regular-season games, including the entire division slate.
I do believe the Bears will need the kind of second-half surge they experienced last season for Eberflus to be on solid footing. What would constitute a surge? Ownership and the front office need to believe the Bears are making real gains in the division. To accomplish that, I’d say you’re talking about winning maybe half of the NFC North games, and it goes without saying the team needs to start winning away from Soldier Field. The road woes under Eberflus have become burdensome.
While I was under the assumption Eberflus signed a four-year contract when he was hired, I’m now led to believe he actually signed a five-year deal that runs through the 2026 season. If you think about it, when you’re selling the idea of a rebuild and preaching patience, it stands to reason Eberflus would seek a deal longer than four years, and from what I’m told, I believe he got that. You may recall I asked Eberflus directly about the length of his contract when he was hired, and he declined to say.
Would having two years remaining on his contract factor into a decision on Eberflus’ status at the end of this season? I highly doubt it. The Bears have been spending a lot of money to do things the right way — the organization has really beefed up things on the business side — and I don’t think money will be a factor.
The noise has been ratcheted up with key players — including a handful of captains — openly questioning some of the decisions at the end of the loss at Washington. That’s never a good look, and it’s now easy to question the level of buy-in and belief Eberflus has from the locker room.
Wide receiver DJ Moore appeared on the “Mully & Haugh Show” on WSCR-AM 670 on Monday and was asked if Eberflus has lost the team.
“I want to say no,” he replied. “The message yesterday was that we know we’re 4-4 now. It’s just like being 0-0. But you’ve just got to go out there and start stacking wins like we did, and that’s the best thing we can do. Win and let the chips fall how they fall after we do so.”
Eberflus’ record is 14-28, and while that’s not good, as I wrote at the end of last season, I think you have to separate out the 2022 season in which the Bears went 3-14 and most fans probably were rooting for the losses to pile up in the second half with an eye toward the draft. Eberflus inherited a bad roster that was in flux when he arrived, so going off his overall record probably isn’t fair. That first season always will be on his resume, but you need to take a closer look.
The Bears are 11-14 since the start of last season and 9-7 since a poor 2-7 start to 2023. One problem is the vast majority of the victories have come against struggling teams. If you’re looking for a signature win, there’s really only one to choose: the 28-13 victory over the Detroit Lions in Week 14 last season.
There were three fourth-quarter meltdowns last season in losses to the Denver Broncos (Week 4), Lions (Week 11) and Cleveland Browns (Week 15). Had those games all gone differently, the Bears would have been 10-7 and made the playoffs. That’s revisionist history, and even good teams squander a game in the fourth quarter every once in a while. The problem is the Bears have had a hard time balancing the ledger with games they’ve stolen in the fourth quarter.
Now preparing to host a struggling New England Patriots team that is 2-7 and currently holds the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft, the Bears are one win from being above .500. That makes them significantly different than the fast-sinking New Orleans Saints, who fired coach Dennis Allen on Monday after their seventh consecutive loss dropped them to 2-7.
It’s impossible to defend Eberflus for the last two weeks. The Bears blew a game they should have won at Washington. Had they held on, it would have been a rare fourth-quarter comeback. Then they responded with what can only be described as a flat effort in Arizona. That’s something Eberflus has to correct if he’s going to put together a case for him to remain in the job.
Firing the head coach in season is a desperate measure that rarely benefits a team in the moment, and the Bears need to keep the focus on developing rookie quarterback Caleb Williams without adding distractions. I believe Eberflus faces an uphill battle to remain in the job in 2025. What will it take? It’s hard to put a number of wins on it, but nine seems like the minimum. Probably more important than the actual number of wins is how the Bears play over the final nine games.
Does the offense, which is in a messy state, straighten out? Can the leaky run defense be shored up? Does the team stop committing penalties at key junctures? Can the Bears come up with maybe three nice road wins down the stretch? You also have to factor in roster health when judging a coaching staff.
It’s much more important to evaluate how the team is trending in the big picture at the end of the season than simply judge a coach off a win-loss record. Is he the coach who can guide the team to the next level? Maybe the biggest determining factor will be if the Bears view this as the right coaching staff to bring out the best in Williams.
To answer that question, Eberflus and the Bears will have to be better than they have been to this point. There have been offensive flashes with Williams, and if they can capture that and get on a roll, the coaching staff has a chance. But it has to be sustained performance. Talking to insiders, Eberflus does a good job of maintaining a positive outlook and motivating players, but that has to start showing up more consistently in results.
Before the season, I think most readers would have been pretty enthusiastic if they were told the Bears would be 5-3 through eight games. Two bad road losses and the lack of another signature win puts Eberflus in a challenging spot, but it’s premature to assume the Bears will be in the hiring cycle in January.
It always gets noisy when there are expectations. That’s the nature of the business. Eberflus understands that. So do the folks he works for.
Why didn’t the Bears demote or fire Shane Waldon? — Jimmy N., Bensenville
That’s a fair question and something I thought might occur in the aftermath of a poor showing against a mediocre Cardinals defense. The Bears are having a difficult time establishing any offensive rhythm. Too often it has been a drive here and a drive there and a lot of missed opportunities and self-inflicted wounds.
Matt Eberflus was steadfast Monday that the team would look inward for answers and solutions and that he wouldn’t shift any job assignments. I wondered if the Bears might turn to passing game coordinator Thomas Brown or perhaps quarterbacks coach Kerry Joseph to call plays because they began the season in an offensive rut and — other than performances against the Carolina Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars — it has been pretty rocky.
“We’re looking to find answers and that’s where we’re at collectively as a group, offense and defense,” Eberflus said Monday. “And we’ll go through that process here today, tomorrow and implement that plan on Wednesday.
“We’re sitting at 4-4. Right now that’s where we are and it’s important that we focus on this week. That’s all we can control and doing a better job of putting our guys in position as coaches to be successful, and that’s ultimately my job and the coordinator’s job secondly. So it’s important that we do a great job of that with the position coaches, partnering up with players and putting those guys in position to succeed.”
It’s impossible to defend how the Bears haven’t been able to weaponize wide receiver DJ Moore to this point. It’s easy to criticize Waldron for the fullback dive that blew up at Washington and the poor call at the goal line in Indianapolis, but the bigger issue is the team has an attractive collection of skill-position players who aren’t able to be difference makers. Waldron didn’t have tight end Cole Kmet on the field enough in the season opener, which was a wild oversight. And Kmet has one target in the last two games.
There are so many questions that are difficult to answer or understand. Yes, the Bears have had issues on the offensive line, but the offense should be significantly more proficient than ranking 30th in yards per play, 26th in yards per rush, 27th in yards per pass and 31st on third down. They don’t have anything they can hang their hat on right now, and while it’s fair to expect quarterback Caleb Williams to have bumpy moments in his rookie season, the whole thing looks disjointed.
Firing an offensive coordinator eight games into a season isn’t a good look for a head coach who fired the previous coordinator after the last season. Eberflus must have confidence Waldron can find solutions — and not just against a poor opponent like the Patriots — because otherwise I think a move would have been justified, even with the team at 4-4. I’m just not convinced the offensive players have a great deal of confidence in the direction they’re going, and if that’s the case, can you blame them?
Do you believe Ryan Poles’ job is tied to Matt Eberflus’? Or do you believe Poles will get another chance? — @ajlight315
Bears President and CEO Kevin Warren, left, and general manager Ryan Poles greet people April 25, 2023, at Halas Hall. (Brian Cassella/Chicago Tribune)
Reading the tea leaves, I don’t think Poles’ future is tied to that of Eberflus. A wild card is in play now with Kevin Warren atop the franchise as CEO and president, but any call of that nature probably has to be made by Chairman George McCaskey. I’ve gotten the sense all along that Poles and Warren are aligned in their vision, and generally speaking, GMs get two chances to hire a head coach. That’s not always the case, but in a lot of situations it plays out that way.
Poles did a masterful job in the trade market by fleecing the Panthers. His track record in free agency has been much more hit than miss. He has positioned the team with young talent for it to emerge as a consistent winner, and it’s a process that has required patience. Anyone expecting a quick turnaround when Poles was hired in 2022 was oblivious to the obstacles in place, starting with a poor roster and a difficult salary-cap sitiuation. The roster has been overhauled, the cap situation is healthy and more draft capital is coming the team’s way in 2025.
Is it fair to have expected more from the team this season? Sure. Some of the losses, especially the 29-9 beatdown in Arizona, have been troubling. The offensive line remains an ongoing issue and needs to be Priority 1 this offseason. But I don’t think Poles’ fate is tied to Eberflus at this point.
A coach with a higher standard of discipline would have sat Tyrique Stevenson the whole game. Do you really think a coach like Bill Belichick would have let Stevenson in on the third series? No, he would have rotated in the punter at corner if need be. This is a big reason the Bears are, once again, in the cellar of the division. The response will always be, “Well, he’s the best at that position.” So? They lost anyway and as the season ebbs away, this lack of real discipline will be a major contributor to yet another lost season. — Mark D.
I’m going to disagree with you here. What Stevenson did on the Hail Mary at Washington was inexcusable and action was needed. What’s the goal of the action? To punish Stevenson or to get his attention — and perhaps the attention of the rest of the locker room — and emerge in a better place? I’m going to go with the latter, and putting Terell Smith in the starting lineup got Stevenson’s attention.
Had Smith not suffered an ankle injury in the first quarter, Stevenson would have had significantly less playing time. I think the plan was for Smith to play most of the game with Stevenson rotating in occasionally. When Smith was injured, the Bears chose to play Stevenson instead of turning to reserves who aren’t as experienced.
Stevenson is in his second season and the Bears believe he has a bright future. He has made some real gains this season, too, getting a lot of work as opponents rarely go at Jaylon Johnson. The Bears didn’t want to crush Stevenson and place all the blame on him for one play. It was regrettable, but if it’s a learning moment and something Stevenson keeps in the back of his mind — maybe something that motivates him — isn’t the organization and locker room better off?
The Bengals got a steal from the Bears in getting Khalil Herbert for a seventh-round pick. I still don’t understand how Herbert got in the doghouse after contributing to this team over the past few years. It isn’t like D’Andre Swift has set the world on fire. This appears to be another blunder by Shane Waldron of underutilizing the talent he has available. — Dan R.
NFL trade deadline: Top contenders — including the Detroit Lions — are busy bolstering rosters
There isn’t a great market for pedestrian running backs, and I think you’ve overvalued Herbert. He was a good sixth-round pick by the previous regime and had some productive games for the Bears, but he’s limited in the passing game and he had struggles in pass protection. Swift has been pretty good after a slow start to the season and he definitely has a knack for more explosive plays, something the offense has been missing. I’d be far more concerned about the inability to get the ball to DJ Moore or Cole Kmet consistently than finding touches for a third running back.
Herbert could do well in Cincinnati, where the Bengals needed a second option to pair with Chase Brown while Zack Moss is out indefinitely with a neck injury. Herbert is in the final year of his rookie contract and will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season. You’re simply not going to get a lot for a rental running back in the trade market.
I thought the Bears might hold on to Herbert in the event of an injury to Swift or Roschon Johnson. Maybe after falling to 4-4, they decided to take what they could get for Herbert. If you’re ranking blunders by the offense, there are a lot more we should first scrutinize.
When will the offensive coordinator (who is quickly becoming he who shall not be named) remember that Cole Kmet is a good option? — Gerry B.
I highly doubt Kmet has been completely ignored in game planning the last two weeks, during which he has been targeted only once. Saying that, he clearly has not been the primary read on enough plays. It’s a problem when you have a capable player who isn’t given opportunities to make plays.
Fortunately, Kmet has been a pro and isn’t bringing attention to the situation or clamoring for the ball. There have been instances in which Caleb Williams probably should have thrown the ball to Kmet too. Everyone is involved here, and the Bears need to be better at featuring Kmet.
