If it’s April, it must be time for football. The Chicago Bears are back on the practice field this week, and the NFL draft is two weeks away.
With four picks in the top 72, including No. 10, the possibilities for the Bears appear almost limitless. The Tribune’s Brad Biggs hashes out some of them in this week’s Bears mailbag.
Is there a possibility for Ryan Poles and the Bears with the 10th pick that hasn’t been discussed over and over? — Tim S., Rolling Meadows
If you look hard enough, you probably can find every scenario — however plausible — dissected in every direction. As I’ve said before, a trade up seems unlikely. If you believe the strength of the draft is on Day 2 or in the middle rounds, you’d better feel unbelievably certain the price to move up is fair and the player you’re moving to get is elite. The trade-down scenario has been covered at length, but who knows if there would be a deal to be made? Remember, if most teams are like-minded, they might be reluctant to flip third- or fourth-round picks to move up?
One possibility I’ve wondered about is the Bears using the 10th pick on a cornerback. I’m not suggesting it’s likely, but if you’re going strictly with the best player available, is there a chance the second-best cornerback in this draft would be the most talented player when their turn comes around? Colorado’s Travis Hunter, the super-talented cornerback and wide receiver, will be long gone before the Bears pick, but Michigan’s Will Johnson and Texas’ Jahdae Barron could be available at No. 10. If the Bears really like them — and have them graded above options closer to the line of scrimmage — you could make a case for choosing a cornerback there.
If the Bears get a top cornerback in the draft, they would have someone to pair with Jaylon Johnson and instantly have one of the better tandems in the league. There’s no such thing as too much depth at cornerback, and that could allow Tyrique Stevenson to become a depth piece. Again, I’m not saying to expect this. You asked if there’s a scenario that hasn’t been discussed over and over.
Alabama linebacker Jihaad Campbell is also intriguing. He has a ton of athleticism, but if the Bears extend T.J. Edwards’ contract, would they have a real need there to justify the selection? It’s at least another possibility to bounce around.
What does success look like between now and entering training camp for Caleb Williams? What do we want to see when it is the first training camp in August that as a fan makes you say, “There’s a Year 2 jump”? — Steven, Falls Church, Va.
You’re looking for a variety of things, starting with a basic understanding of the offense and the presnap machinations. The Detroit Lions were fifth in the league last season in using presnap motion (the Bears ranked 19th), and assuming that’s a big part of what Ben Johnson wants to do, that puts considerable pressure on Williams and the rest of the offense to be detailed and locked in.
That takes time on task, and we’ll see what it looks like in early August. Can Williams get in and out of the huddle crisply, get to the line of scrimmage and execute the snap without repetitive delays? That, to me, is the first big hurdle to clear and something he and the team will work to nail down this spring.
Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams wants to be pushed. New coach Ben Johnson is eager to do so.
Second, I’d be looking for production in seven-on-seven drills. These are series heavily tilted in favor of the offense. There’s no pass rush. Throwing windows should be clear and defined. It doesn’t represent real football, but the Bears offense has been mostly terrible in seven-on-seven for I don’t know how many summers now. The ball has been on the ground too often with incomplete passes. There have been way, way too many check-downs. Rarely has the offense just sliced up the defense in seven-on-seven.
That’s why I’ve been tepid — at best — about the outlook for the offense by the time September rolls around each year. I’ve seen the offense struggle in seven-on-seven and it has been a precursor of things to come. Contrary to the opinion of some, it’s not always a sign that the defense will be awesome.
This isn’t to say that if the Bears offense all of a sudden is productive in seven-on-seven settings, the passing game would be cleared for takeoff. But it would be a good sign and very well could signal significant improvement. This isn’t all on Williams, but he’s the biggest piece to it. So pay attention to seven-on-seven and if there’s a real difference from what we’ve seen since Jay Cutler was playing quarterback for the Bears.
Do NFL scouts have specific positions that they specialize in while scouting college players? For example, is there a scout that specializes or focuses on linebackers or tight ends, etc.? — T.H., Chicago
That’s a good question. The short answer is no, they do not assign specific scouts to certain positions, not at the beginning of the process anyway. Every team does things a little bit differently, and I will use the Bears’ current structure as an example.
They have six area scouts to cover the country for college football. They’re responsible for generating reports on schools in their region, a process that involves multiple trips into most major programs. Above the area scouts are two national scouts — Brendan Rehor and John Syty — director of college scouting Breck Ackley, assistant director of college scouting Francis Saint Paul and Jeff Shiver, an executive scout who has been with the organization since 1987. With Rehor and Syty crisscrossing the country and Ackley, Saint Paul and Shiver making the rounds, the Bears wind up having two and often three sets of eyes make it to see major programs and even smaller schools with prospects of interest.
General manager Ryan Poles, assistant GM Ian Cunningham, senior director of player personnel Jeff King and director of player personnel Trey Koziol are also on the road. As the process unfolds, teams will have scouts crosscheck some prospects with tape, and that’s when they might ask a certain evaluator who is strong at a certain position to analyze a group of players. In the end, everyone sees the players on film, and a good handful of evaluators will see the players on campus or in games.
Is defensive tackle a bigger need than people are thinking? Grady Jarrett is 32 and there is uncertainty how much he has left. Andrew Billings has one year left (on his contract) and Gervon Dexter needs a breakout. Zacch Pickens hasn’t done much. Should we focus more on a defensive tackle in the first two rounds? — @bears_dubz
I don’t get the impression folks are downplaying needs along the line of scrimmage. From my perspective, most understand it’s a good idea for the Bears to continue to add to the offensive line and be mindful of opportunities to add an edge rusher and interior help on the defensive line. The good news is this is a deep, deep draft at defensive tackle, something former Senior Bowl executive director Jim Nagy stressed when I chatted with him back in the fall.
Jarrett turns 32 this month, and you’re correct that Billings has one year remaining on his deal and that the Bears really need Dexter to take the next step. They also have some depth pieces at the position in Chris Williams and Jonathan Ford. Even if the Bears don’t add a defensive tackle in the first two rounds, they ought to be able to identify a player who can compete to be part of the rotation.
In terms of hunting for needs, especially in the early rounds, there’s an important piece to keep in mind when it comes to draft grades, value and reaching. I had a conversation about this topic a couple of years ago with a general manager I really respect. In our chat, he used cornerback as a position of need, but you can substitute any position for the lesson. The point he wanted to make is you can get in trouble reaching for needs in the first couple of rounds, and you often end up right back in the same position in as little as two years.
“Let’s say cornerback is a need and, at minimum, I need a draft pick to come in and be able to challenge a player we already have for a starting spot,” he said. “In a perfect world, he wins the job. And let’s say the cornerbacks on my board have lower grades than a handful of players at other positions where the perceived need — my perception as well as yours — isn’t as great.
“I go ahead and draft a cornerback that has a lower grade than I have on a linebacker, a wide receiver, a guard, whatever positions. I get credit right away and it’s a good draft pick because I filled the need — the perceived need — with that pick. But credit right after the draft has ended is meaningless. You know that and I know that. The cornerback comes in. He’s not good enough to challenge for the starting job and he turns into a depth piece that we try to get time on special teams. Two years later, I have the same need at cornerback. The player I drafted, the one with the lower grade, didn’t fill the need and I’m in the same position.
“Had I drafted a player with a higher grade, that perceived need for a cornerback might still be there in two years, or probably in that time I found another way to enhance the position. But the player with the higher grade is playing good football and helping us win, and two years later I made a good pick even though I bypassed a player at the position where there was need.”
NFL mock draft 1.0: Who will the Chicago Bears select with the No. 10 pick?
Could safety be in play at No. 10? Jaquan Brisker has concussion issues and is in the final year of his contract. Kevin Byard’s age and contract is also a factor. Would the Bears take a chance at Nick Emmanwori or Malaki Starks there? It’s high for the position but clearly a need. Emmanwori is so big and fast, he could play nickel linebacker. — @themaxconnor1
There has been an awful lot of hand-wringing over the depth at safety, and while there’s no question it’s a position that warrants attention in the draft, some of the concern has been overblown. As impressive as South Carolina’s Emmanwori and Georgia’s Starks are, No. 10 seems too high for a safety in this class. If the Bears absolutely love one of them, I suppose they could make a case for it. But when you insert “need” into the equation, which you have done, you can make a stronger case the Bears have greater needs on the offensive and defensive lines if they’re going to continue fortifying the roster from the inside out.
Mike Brown is the highest-drafted safety by the Bears in the last 25 drafts, selected 39th in Round 2 in 2000. The Bears have taken two other safeties in the second round in that span: Danieal Manning 42nd in 2006 and Brisker 48th in 2022. I’m confident they’re taking a close look at the position, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they wind up with a safety on Day 2 of the draft. If they do that, they’ve added competition for a starting job and depth. A safety in Round 1 would be a surprise.
Do you believe it is an open competition between Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum for QB2? — @michael16824439
One thing I expect from Ben Johnson and the new coaching staff is more legitimate competition for jobs — all over the place. I think the Bears fell into a spot the past couple of years where “competition” for jobs was more lip service than legitimate battles. A fresh set of eyes from new coaches, especially if they can start the process with no preconceived notions, should create real competition, and of course that should extend to the No. 2 quarterback job. Bagent or Keenum should have to win that spot behind Caleb Williams.
The third round has been a weakness for Ryan Poles. His sample size being Velus Jones, Zacch Pickens and Kiran Amegadjie. Who are some names to watch for that could be in the mix at pick 72? — Mike F., Chicago
The sample size is really small, but the Bears have struggled to get an impact from third-round picks for some time. Running back David Montgomery was a terrific selection in 2019. Before him you have to go back to 2011 and safety Chris Conte to find a third-rounder who played meaningful snaps for the Bears. They have regularly packaged third-round picks in trades and consequently had no Round 3 pick in 2013, 2017, 2018, 2020 and 2021.
So the first thing I would say is the Bears’ issues in Round 3 predate Poles’ arrival. You’re right, Jones was a pick that fizzled. The Bears fell in love with his speed and testing numbers and wound up with a phenomenal athlete who wasn’t much of a football player. They weren’t the only team that really liked him as a returner coming out of Tennessee. It just didn’t work out for Jones.
I thought Pickens flashed a little as a rookie when he was learning the NFL game, and his commitment to the weight room and reshaping his body was as evident as the work fellow defensive tackle Gervon Dexter did. A groin injury suffered during the preseason set Pickens back last year, and then the injury flared up again and he wound up playing in only nine games. He has a lot to prove this season and could benefit as much as any player from a new coaching staff. I wouldn’t necessarily write Pickens off. He has a chance to earn playing time but needs to play well and stay on the field.
As far as Amegadjie, his well-documented injury situation last year made his rookie season a wash. If you’re grading it, it has to be an “incomplete.” I’m not saying he’s going to flourish now that he’s healthy. I’m saying let’s see what he looks like after a healthy offseason and work with a new coaching staff before we even attempt to determine if it was a good or bad pick.
As for what could be available when the Bears are picking at No. 72 — assuming they don’t move up or down — it’s hard to pin any specific names. The depth of running backs in this class could make that a prime spot to bolster the backfield. It’s also a good range to draft a safety, and the depth at defensive tackle in the class makes that another position to watch.
I don’t understand why general managers are opposed to going against the “value chart.” For example, let’s say the Bears are on the clock at No. 10 and there is no one they love but five guys they really like equally. Miami calls and wants to trade up from No. 13. Let’s say the chart says the Bears should get a third-round pick for dropping down three spots. I don’t know the actual value. Now, pretend Miami is only willing to give up a fourth. Pretty much everyone says the Bears should stand pat and pick at 10, but why? There’s five guys they’d be happy with so why not get a fourth as well? — Dave K., Albuquerque, N.M.
You have a ton of hypotheticals here. The first thing I will say is every team has a draft value chart, and each one is slightly different. Smart teams probably create one for each specific draft class based on its strength and depth. Value charts are only a loose guide when it comes to packaging draft picks in trades, and sometimes teams will overpay considerably. The Bears did so when they moved up to draft Justin Fields at No. 11 in 2021 — or at least that was the feedback I received from folks who worked for multiple teams.
Let’s take a look at your scenario. Most of the draft value charts say the difference between the 10th and 13th picks is roughly equal to a pick in the second half of Round 3 — some say closer to the end of Round 3. If Ryan Poles had five players who were legitimately equally ranked, moving down for a pick in, say, the top half of Round 4 probably would be a good move. Dealing for a pick in the back half of Round 4 wouldn’t make as much sense. You don’t want to be the person who doesn’t drive a hard bargain when it comes to trades. Maybe he could do better exploring trades with teams around No. 13 and get better value.
Was last year’s disappearing act by Cole Kmet due to bad play calling and usage or is he just a mid-level tight end? — @robertpeal7
I’ve gone over this a few times in the mailbag, and if you’re expecting Kmet to be among the most productive pass-catching tight ends in the league in terms of numbers, he’s not that kind of player. Kmet is a Y tight end — a blocking tight end — with the athletic ability, route-running skill, speed and hands to be a very effective option in the passing game. The biggest issue is I think some have miscast him as a pass-catching tight end. That’s not what he is. He has well-rounded ability to help the offense in all phases.
Now that we’ve covered that, his lack of production last season was a bad combination of scheme, play calling and I think quarterback Caleb Williams probably could have looked for him more. The Bears took away plays that would have gone to Kmet by adding Keenan Allen to the offense. I’d expect him to be a bigger cog in the passing game this season and a threat in the red zone as well.
How high is the team on Austin Booker? — @gusdabearzfan
One thing that consistently stood out with Booker last season, when he logged 283 snaps (27%) as a rookie, was his high motor. He has the range to track down plays on the back side and always is moving. Pass-rushing production was scant. He had 1½ sacks, six quarterback hits and three QB knockdowns. He totaled 14 solo tackles, three tackles for a loss and seven assists.
If the Bears are approaching this the right way, they’re completely open-minded regarding Booker. He’s a young, athletic defensive end with speed and length, and he has a fresh start with a new coaching staff. He has a great situation in front of him even if the team adds an edge rusher in the draft because Booker will earn as much time on the field as his play dictates.
It would be a mistake if the new coaches were high or low on any young players they haven’t worked with previously. Everyone starts with a clean slate, and that means everyone is evaluated in the same manner. The Bears can say they’re excited to work with younger players like Booker, but they don’t know what they’re getting until they get on the field with them — and for linemen, the real evaluations won’t start until the pads go on in training camp.
Be careful not to fall into a trap of celebrating defensive linemen making plays in the backfield in OTAs and minicamps. The offensive linemen can’t put their hands on them. Let’s push pause here and see where these players are when real football gets going.
