One more game — Sunday in Green Bay — remains before the Chicago Bears officially enter a critical offseason that will include hiring a new coach.
The Tribune’s Brad Biggs looks at the upcoming coaching search from myriad angles in the latest installment of his weekly Bears mailbag.
Would retaining Ryan Poles be a deterrent to hiring a top coach? — @mosconml
I don’t believe Poles remaining the general manager would turn off any candidates from interviewing with the Bears. Maybe I’m wrong. We’re only guessing until we know how many job openings there will be leaguewide and what those other spots offer.
Ever since Matt Eberflus was fired Nov. 29, some have rushed to speculate or assume Poles will be gone too, even though that’s contrary to what President/CEO Kevin Warren said. Warren was emphatic that Poles would remain GM and be the point person in the coaching search. Things move fast in the NFL, but Warren would have to contradict himself five weeks later if he moves on from Poles.
It doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to put Poles in charge of beginning the background work on a wide variety of candidates for more than a month and then turn around and fire him when the rubber needs to hit the road in the coaching search. The reality is that launching Eberflus with five games remaining wasn’t going to solve this team’s woes. Judging Poles’ body of work over the final month-plus of this season doesn’t make any sense.
Smart candidates will have just as many questions for Poles, Warren and the Bears as the team will have for the candidates. All parties are seeking the same thing, and that’s a feeling that the vision is shared and aligned. The interviews will be the key here. Will Poles hit it off with every coach the Bears interview? Maybe not. Some will go better than others. But I don’t see his remaining the GM as being an obstacle to the Bears lining up meetings with desired candidates.
Why would the Bears risk starting Caleb Williams behind this line in Green Bay? The incremental development of one more game is minimal. Worst case is he gets hurt and is rehabbing instead of working on learning the new offense in the offseason. Tyson Bagent’s value would go up with a decent start. — Noah B., Chicago
A couple of folks wondered about this, and while the Bears’ quarterback woes are extreme, this is a mighty fatalistic view. It’s a no-brainer in my mind for Williams and all of the other frontline players to play. One thing that has stood out about Williams’ rookie season is the way he has attacked every week with a positive mindset. There’s something to be said for starting all 17 games, and I have no doubt that is something Williams will be proud of when the season is over.
I suggest you look at what Dan Campbell did Monday night at San Francisco in a game that had no factor in the Detroit Lions’ pursuit of the No. 1 seed and first-round bye in the NFC playoffs. He played quarterback Jared Goff, running back Jahmyr Gibbs and all of the Lions’ other top talent. Campbell attacked the game against the 49ers with a winning mindset.
Is it fair to say that the Bears have become what the Commanders/Redskins were before this season? — Nathan L., Belvedere, Ill.
No. Not even close. It’s bad and everyone is frustrated right now, but the Bears are not in that kind of predicament. Washington’s victory over the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday night gave that franchise 11 wins for the first time since 1991 — the last time it won the Super Bowl. The Bears also won 11 games in 1991 and have had five seasons since then with at least that many victories. So the Bears have done a better job of sprinkling in exciting seasons than Washington ever did, especially during the 24-year run of former owner Daniel Snyder.
The Commanders had decayed so badly that what was once one of the most difficult tickets in the NFL could be had for cheap. Fans left in droves under the misguided ownership and management, and Northwest Stadium (formerly FedEx Field) would be crowded with fans of the visiting team. You could see virtually empty sections, even after the team reduced the seating capacity.
Bears fans still show up strong at Soldier Field. There were empty seats at last Thursday’s game but nothing like the Week 16 Christmas Eve game in 2016, when the team announced a crowd of 39,837 for a 41-21 loss to Washington. Bears programming in this town remains strong. The organization has been plagued with mostly mediocre football for the last three decades, but there have been enough bright spots (2001, 2005-06, 2010, 2018) to keep fans engaged, hoping and spending.
Until Soldier Field has one-third of the seats empty and the crowd is about 50-50 for the Bears and the visiting team, this won’t be an apples-to-apples comparison.
Is there any introspection in the front office that has them looking at the disastrous decisions over the past decade? — @supergregb
I imagine there has been plenty of reflection on some of the moves the Bears made for this season that didn’t play out the way they hoped. Some of that has probably already happened and there should be more of it, but you also have to realize that Ryan Poles has had a full schedule partnering with Kevin Warren in preparing for the coaching search while also having a major role in scouting meetings that are customary in the final month of the season.
It wouldn’t do Poles any good to wonder what went wrong before he arrived. If you’re talking about Chairman George McCaskey, I imagine he has spent time doing some of the same. He’s a hands-off owner, so it’s not like he’s inserting himself into football decisions. Hopefully the Bears have a better result in the coaching search this time. Unless we hear something different, it sounds like they won’t be using a consultant, and I never thought that was a great idea when Ernie Accorsi and then Bill Polian were hired.
The Bears have made some good moves and sound decisions in the last five-plus years, but they haven’t made enough, they haven’t had enough consistency and therefore the record is poor and the outlook this season — in the basement of the best division in the league — is bad. The climb certainly appears steeper than many figured it would be at this time a year ago. Just keep in mind, things can flip quickly in the NFL. That won’t occur by happenstance, but if the Bears can make some good moves, perhaps they’re not years and years away from breaking through.
Kevin Warren said he views the next head coaching hire as transformational for the next 10 years. With that in mind, it is fair to look at what age a prospective candidate will be at the end of his tenure. That would probably preclude those who are over 60. Do you think this would shut out older candidates like Pete Carroll, who would be 83 at the end of the projected timeline? — Chris R.
Fair question. For starters, let’s refer to what Warren specifically said at the news conference after Matt Eberflus was fired.
“You hate saying that decisions are going to set the trajectory of the franchise over the next 10 to 15 to 20 years, (but) this is one that will,” he said. “It is critically important that we put all of our energy into making sure that we exhaust this search (and) get the right person here.”
I’ll admit I had a similar reaction when we first heard of Carroll’s interest in the job. He’s one of the rare people about whom I truly believe you can say age is just a number. Carroll, who will turn 74 in September, operates with more energy these days than many 53-year-olds, and he has an established record of winning everywhere he has been.
Warren’s first job in the NFL came with the St. Louis Rams, who hired him in 1997 after the team had lured coach Dick Vermeil out of a long retirement. Vermeil was 60 and had been out of the league for 15 seasons after walking away from the Philadelphia Eagles following the 1982 season. Yes, Vermeil was a good bit younger than Carroll currently is, but you can draw some parallels there.
Carroll has the kind of track record that would lead you to believe he can get rid of the losing culture at Halas Hall. He has had success with a variety of quarterbacks in the NFL and in college at USC. I don’t think you can craft a 10-year plan if you hire Carroll, but it’s an interesting idea that can’t be dismissed — especially if Warren draws parallels to what he saw Vermeil do with the Rams and then the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Bears obviously need a solid center. Can rookies make the transition in Year 1 or is free agency a better option? — @stevesvendsen
That has been a tough position for the Bears to fill for a while now. Since Roberto Garza’s career ended in 2014, the Bears have had six Week 1 starters at center: Will Montgomery, James Daniels, Cody Whitehair, Sam Mustipher, Lucas Patrick and Coleman Shelton. Whitehair, a second-round pick in 2016, played more center than anyone in that span but was probably best as a guard. Fortunately he was the kind of guy who rolled with the punches and never complained when he was moved to different spots. At his peak, he was a solid lineman for the Bears.
Shelton has been an upgrade over Patrick, but the Bears would be in a better spot if they can create a long-range plan at center. It’s not an easy position for a draft pick to step into and play at a high level right away. Just ask Olin Kreutz about the challenges of adapting to the NFL on the fly. The Pittsburgh Steelers’ Zach Frazier has done a really nice job this season as a second-round pick, and it would have been great if the Bears could have found a way to trade into Round 2 back in April and grab him.
There isn’t a center in this year’s draft class as talented as Frazier, who came out of West Virginia. Georgia’s Jared Wilson, if he enters the draft, might be the best of the group, but it’s a thin group overall and it’s a challenging position to scout because NFL offenses put tougher requirements on the position than colleges.
“Starts with the communication stuff,” one general manager said. “In college, you’ve got all this nonsense where they put Mickey Mouse and other stuff on a poster board and hold it up on the sideline to call the plays. Finding the brain — a player that can handle everything presnap — is probably the hardest part because it is such an unknown. There isn’t a center in this year’s group that is even close to Frazier.”
Is it just me or while Caleb Williams shows flashes of greatness, does he miss the majority of his touch throws, especially deep throws? — Paul G.
I don’t think he’s off when it comes to touch passing, but the downfield passing game has been a struggle. That’s something Williams and the new coaching staff will want to address and something I believe can be rectified.
Williams ranks poorly in terms of pass attempts that travel 15 or more air yards and 20 or more air yards.
- 15-plus: 37 of 105 (35.2%, 32nd in the NFL), 7 TDs, 4 INTs, 62.0 rating (31st)
- 20-plus: 20 of 66 (30.3%, 29th), 5 TDs, 4 INTs, 52.2 rating (32nd)
Timing in the downfield passing game hasn’t been good and Williams often has worked without a clean pocket.
“From what I’ve seen, he’s not throwing a lot of balls that can be contested catches,” said a pro scout whom I called for this topic. “It looks like he’s very conscious of not turning the football over, almost to a fault. And that’s great when you’re in the fourth quarter and you are sitting on a 10-point lead. When is the last time the Bears had one of those?
“It looks like he lacks that aggressive mentality as a thrower. He is throwing some of these deep balls but he puts it where only his guy can catch it and a lot of times he misses. A lot of his deep passes are overthrown.
“Look at Sam Darnold. He makes some really bad decisions but he doesn’t stop. He will throw into tight windows where Caleb, especially at the third level of the field, turns a lot of those down unless the guy is wide open. It looks like he’s trying to aim the ball and really wants to put it on the upfield shoulder.
“Sometimes you’ve got to let your guy make a play for you. He hasn’t done that a lot. It’s correctable. It’s a mentality thing and the Bears, as bad as they’ve been, they probably can’t afford more turnovers.”
I know Kliff Kingsbury was fired as head coach of the Arizona Cardinals and was fired as the head coach of Texas Tech. He also has developed many young quarterbacks successfully, and Bill Belichick (and) others have had successful second acts. I am not suggesting he be hired as the next head coach of the Bears without all the proper vetting and comparison to other candidates, but is he at least in the discussion? — Dave T.
Kingsbury is an intriguing candidate considering he would come in with an established relationship with Caleb Williams and has done a really nice job with Jayden Daniels in Washington this season. Daniels will be the runaway winner of the Offensive Rookie of the Year award after helping turn around the Commanders, who have a lot of average personnel across the board. Kind of amazing how good Kingsbury has been in Washington and how poorly things went for Shane Waldron with the Bears, who interviewed Kingsbury for their offensive coordinator position.
There were stories this season about how opponents catch up to Kingsbury offenses in the second half of the season. That is true, but the Commanders have adjusted and averaged 32 points over the last four games to qualify for the postseason. It will be interesting to see how much interest there is leaguewide in Kingsbury. I don’t know that I would compare him to Belichick, but he should be in play as a candidate for the Bears and others.
With the Bears’ problems running the ball, why did they trade Khalil Herbert? He was a strong runner, which the Bears need in those fourth-and-1 runs and short-yardage plays. — Raymond D.
I think you’re in the minority on this one. A lot of folks thought it was a good idea for Ryan Poles to get future draft capital for a player on an expiring contract. The Bears got a seventh-round pick from the Cincinnati Bengals in the deal for Herbert, who has had just eight carries with his new team.
Herbert is a decent back, and if he lands in the right situation, he should be productive. He’s a back you win with, not because of, and those are easier to find than maybe you imagine. He wasn’t going to be a difference maker in the second half of this season if he stayed with the Bears. They haven’t been good enough up front for any running back.
I have good news for you, though: Running back might be the deepest position in this year’s draft.
Much has been said about the Bears having a promising young quarterback and how this would make the head coaching job attractive. However, I have to assume that the Bears have a reputation around the league as having ownership and a front office which will supply the football people with what they think they need and then get out of the way and not interfere. I’m wondering if this factor more than any other makes the Bears job the most attractive of the ones that will be available. — Tom S., Chicago
Let’s slow down a little bit, as we don’t know how many openings there will be leaguewide. The Bears certainly have a better reputation in that regard than the New York Jets, another team with an opening. The New Orleans Saints don’t strike me as meddlesome at the ownership and upper-management levels.
A ton of factors come into play, and the most significant will be whether the coach the Bears want feels like everything will be aligned for him to have success. That comes down to relationships. That’s what will be critical in the interview process. Do all parties believe there’s a shared vision that can help propel the organization forward. A prospective coach could know that Bears ownership is hands off and good about supplying resources, but if he doesn’t think everything lines up, it won’t matter.
Do you think that the Bears will stipulate to any potential head coach that they have to have (fill in the blank) current Bears assistant coach on their team? — @joetayl40659197
No. There’s no way the Bears would place any staff requirements on a new coach. It’s not uncommon for teams to suggest a head coach talk to an assistant or two who remain under contract if he doesn’t have top-notch hires for the positions ready. That’s why you get a holdover or two from time to time as staffs change. But any new coach will have control over his staff.
