For the second consecutive year, Chicago Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer sat at the dais trying to explain why a team built with playoff aspirations was again sitting at home as Major League Baseball’s postseason got underway.
Hoyer, who will be entering the final year of his five-year contract, acknowledged the Cubs’ shortcomings.
“When I think about our season and where we are I’m disappointed but optimistic,” Hoyer said Tuesday. “I think any time you set a goal for yourself and you fall short of that goal, there’s disappointment. From the top down this year, the expectation was to play in the playoffs, and we didn’t get there and we have to be better to move beyond 83-79 two consecutive years.
“We need to be better to get beyond that,” he added. “But I’m really excited about next year. I think we’re building from a really great foundation going forward, and we need to get back to the postseason for these fans. I think that’s what the fans deserve, and we’ll get there.”
Beyond the disappointment of not making the postseason (in a full-length season) since 2018, Hoyer touched on a variety of topics during his nearly 45-minute end-of-the-season news conference.
1. Lack of star-caliber production a concern
It’s a question Hoyer faced throughout the season, especially during the stretch from May into July when the offense faltered: Do the Cubs need a superstar hitter to help them avoid those prolonged slumps?
The Cubs witnessed the benefits of having that caliber of hitter last year when Cody Bellinger put up top-10, MVP-level numbers. Without Bellinger or another Cubs hitter stepping up to that level in 2024, they relied on quality all-around offensive performances that ultimately weren’t enough to get them to the postseason. Hoyer called it “a hard thing to figure.”
“If you look at the 12 teams in the playoffs, like every team in the playoffs has a guy that had five or more wins (above replacement) this year so there’s no question that when you’re looking to be projections, when you’re looking to have that excellent season, having players just outperform expectations is a big part of it,” Hoyer said. “… When you look at our season, we had a lot of guys on the team that had good years, they kind of got back to their numbers, maybe on projection and a hair above, a hair below. No one really had that carrying year that Cody (Bellinger) had last year. And I do think we missed that.”
Without pursuing a star hitter in free agency or through a trade, the Cubs must have players outperform projections, and in some cases to a significant level to reach a star-production threshold. As a big-market team, the Cubs, in theory, should be able to pay for that production rather than rely on developing it. Hoyer’s counter to that point is that the organization can’t only bank on that approach.
“I think people always focus on the external, when I think our job a lot of times is focused on internal,” Hoyer said. “How do we make our own players better? What do we need to do as an organization? What I need to do, these guys need to do, to put us in position to have those guys have those kind of years because that ultimately is how you beat projections, is how you have a magical season, is you have a bunch of guys that outperform. So you can’t only rely on external additions.”
2. The offense needs to add more slug
When the Cubs evaluate how to improve their offensive production, getting more power out of the lineup will be a must.
“We didn’t have any one player slugging at a really high level,” Hoyer said.
Part of the challenge this year was a home ballpark that ranked as the second-least-friendliest place to hit this year. However, over the totality of the season, the Cubs’ .393 slugging percentage was tied for 17th in the majors while their 170 home runs tied them for 20th.
Hoyer believes Seiya Suzuki is capable of continuing to be a top-20 slugger in the league. But the Cubs need more power output beyond relying largely on him. Ian Happ’s 25 home runs led the team while Suzuki and Michael Busch (both with 21) were their only other hitters to tally more than 20 home runs.
“I do think, in general, Wrigley suppressed offenses here, and baseball’s offense was suppressed,” Hoyer said. “And I think sometimes we have to readjust our numbers in our head. … We all have to adjust our sights a little bit. But certainly adding more slug would be beneficial, especially in today’s game. Scoring quickly is what you want. It’s hard to string hits together, given the pitching today, and so we’ll always be looking for more slug.”
Figuring out how to add that to the roster, beyond someone like Suzuki fully tapping into his power potential consistently, will not be easy to solve if the Cubs decide to bank on much of that coming from internal improvements.
3. Cubs won’t be surprised if Cody Bellinger becomes a free agent
Cody Bellinger has until five days after the World Series ends — which could be as late as Nov. 2 — to decide whether he will pick up his $27.5 million player option for 2025.
As the Cubs plot their approach over the next month to improve the team, Bellinger’s decision will have a big impact on what avenue the Cubs take this winter. Hoyer noted that when they signed Bellinger in February, the organization expected the slugger to have a bunch of choices if he played well.
“He had a good year, and so I think he’ll have options,” Hoyer said. “Obviously he didn’t have quite the year like last year, he was an MVP candidate, I think. But when you look at the totality of the year, he had at the end, roughly an .800 OPS on the road; his home OPS was 200 points lower than last year. And that’s kind of how Wrigley played so I expect him to have a lot of options.”
If Bellinger opts for free agency, as Hoyer suggested the Cubs believe he will, they must evaluate what positions to fill with his departure. Bellinger’s versatility, getting starts in center field, right field and first base, adds a wrinkle to that.
4. Cubs make changes to staff
As manager Craig Counsell enters Year 2, his coaching staff will look a little different after largely bringing back the entire group he inherited last offseason.
First base coach Mike Napoli, assistant hitting coach Jim Adduci and bullpen coach Darren Holmes are not being retained, a source confirmed to the Tribune. Hoyer doesn’t anticipate further changes to the staff, though with teams in the playoffs and others in the process of hiring new managers, the Cubs could receive requests for permission to speak to other coaches.
“I can’t say this is our coaching staff for next year for sure,” Hoyer said. “But I think that the people that are here will certainly have the opportunity to come back.”
Napoli had been part of the big-league staff since the 2020 season, the past three of which he was the first-base coach. He had also been in charge of base running, working closely with players like Pete Crow-Armstrong, who often praised his help and guidance in that area. Adduci became part of the uniformed staff before the 2023 season after spending two years as assistant director of run production. Holmes was one of three additions by Counsell before the season to fill a vacant position.
Hoyer didn’t want to into specifics on what Counsell and the Cubs want from a first-base coach, saying he will leave that up to Counsell to talk about what he’s looking for.
“It’s his right to want his own staff, he should want his own staff, and I think it would have been almost unusual if at the end of the year he just chose to keep everyone together,” Hoyer said. “And so I think he’ll, with our help, certainly we’ll all be working on what that looks like. But I think that’s probably expected that there’d be some changes to the staff after his first year.”
Strength and conditioning coaches Keegan Knoll and Ryan Clausen, who had been in their roles the last two years, will also not be brought back.
“Ultimately, for us, it was about making sure that we have the right alignment from the top down in the organization, and we felt like that was a place we want to go in a different direction,” Hoyer said. “But certainly not a knock on those guys at all. They worked incredibly hard and diligently and provided a really good atmosphere, but we decided it was right to go in a different direction.”
