The first thing to know is Carson Kelly isn’t listening to the narrative that he can’t keep hitting like he has in his first six weeks with the Chicago Cubs.
Regression is only a matter of time, right?
“I default to what I’m doing,” Kelly told me. “Has it been good? Yeah. Are there moments where I feel like I could be a little better? Absolutely.
“So it’s really just staying in the process, staying within myself and what I can control. There are a lot of things in this game you can’t control. So really doubling down on things I can control and the trust of my work and my preparation. That’s all I can control at the end of the day.”
It’s hard to imagine Kelly getting “a little better” than he has shown in the early going. Entering Thursday his 1.261 OPS was the best in baseball, ahead of Aaron Judge (1.241). Kelly’s .348 batting average would have ranked fourth if he had enough at-bats to qualify, while his .488 on-base percentage would have been second behind Judge’s .491. In only 84 plate appearances, he was tied for first among catchers with 23 RBIs and second at his position with eight home runs.
Oh, and he became the first Cubs player to hit for the cycle since Mark Grace in 1993.
This isn’t what the Cubs expected when they signed Kelly to a two-year, $11.5 million deal in December. It’s not what anyone expected.
Except maybe Kelly.
“I’m not really surprised,” he said. “The results have been very good, but it’s come with a lot of ups and downs throughout my career and changes to the mental game and physically. A lot of pieces have gone into it.”
The Cubs begin a three-game series against the Mets on Friday in New York, testing themselves against the team that spent $765 million in the winter on slugger Juan Soto. Who could’ve figured Kelly would have better numbers than Soto heading into the big series in the Big Apple?
Kelly said the Cubs were interested in him early in the offseason, and he saw himself as a good fit on a team “trending in the right direction.” He was promised co-billing by Cubs President Jed Hoyer, who believed Kelly could be at least catcher 1A behind Miguel Amaya if he was able to stay healthy.
“We thought Miguel and Carson would kind of split time down the middle, and if someone played well enough to change that, we’d change that,” manager Craig Counsell said. “Fully expecting them still to split time. Carson has exceeded his own expectations. If you look at the scoreboard (statistics) …”
He could be an All-Star?
“Better than that,” Counsell said.
Someone mentioned MVP numbers.
“They are,” Counsell said. “Anytime you’re walking as much as he is without the strikeouts … you don’t see that much in the game, so you know he’s seeing the ball really well.”
MVP is a stretch, of course, for someone who starts about half the time. The All-Star Game is more than two months away, but if Kelly were to be elected to the National League team, it would be a redemption story that’s hard to believe.
Kelly seemingly has been around forever, first as the so-called heir apparent to Yadier Molina in St. Louis and then as an oft-injured catcher for the Diamondbacks after being sent to Arizona following the 2018 season in the Paul Goldschmidt deal. The Diamondbacks released him in August 2023, and it looked like a promising career was nearing an end.
But he’s only 30, which suggests the retro slugger has a long way to go before accepting that he’ll wind up a backup catcher.
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“I was fortunate to be up (in the majors) early and going through those ups and downs as a younger player,” he said. “Yeah, it is (strange) to think about, ‘I’m 30.’ This is my 10th season.”
Most Cubs fans shrugged off Kelly’s signing in the winter, figuring he would back up Amaya, much like David Ross and Yan Gomes were brought to Chicago to provide defense, mentor pitchers and be a good clubhouse presence near the end of their careers.
Kelly has suffered numerous injuries over the years, including five broken bones in three years. He had a broken toe, a broken hand and then a broken forearm in spring training in 2023, when he missed four months and never completely recovered.
But Kelly said he never got to the point where he resigned himself to becoming a career backup.
“I’ve had peaks and moments and months where I’ve really been good,” he said. “And I’ve had months where it’s been really, really bad. I’ve always believed in myself and said, ‘I know it’s in there.’
“I’m a thinker. I can overthink some things sometimes, and that’s part of my process of trying to get back to neutral every day and be the same guy every day.”
After breaking his forearm, Kelly started working with Brian Kane, the mental performance coach who hosts “The Fearless Warrior” podcast. Kelly credits that as a turning point in his rebound.
“Learning routines, affirmations, focuses and, like, if there’s a pitch I don’t like and it’s called a strike, how do I reset?” Kelly said. “Little things like that. And I started getting more momentum and confidence. Obviously I needed physical changes as well and not breaking bones.”
Knock on wood. Other than an oblique injury, Kelly said he had a lot of “unfortunate injuries” that couldn’t be prevented, which led to other issues.
“When you break bones and literally can’t do anything, you lose your strength and everything you do in the offseason is kind of out the window,” he said. “I asked myself, ‘How I can get better?’ And I decided that working on my mental game (was the solution).
“Regardless of the results, how can I win every single pitch, how can I move on from every single pitch? That’s been a big separator for me to lock in throughout this season so far.”
Being in the right place at the right time helps, and Kelly seems very much at home in Chicago — and in this particular clubhouse.
“Carson’s strength is light; he does not overthink it,” Counsell said. “He keeps it light with the guys and that gives him confidence, and confidence leads to conviction.”
Kelly will have to come back to earth at some point, of course. No one with his career numbers suddenly can turn into a superstar in Year 10, right?
Maybe.
But don’t tell Kelly.
