The Chicago Cubs’ playoff odds stood at 1.1 % Saturday before a nondescript 2-0 loss to the New York Yankees at Wrigley Field.
They may be on life support, but that didn’t stop a crowd of 40,080 from turning out on a sun-chilled September afternoon. Some came out to see the Yankees or to witness the game’s biggest star, Aaron Judge, in his pursuit of another 60-home run season or just to salute former Cub Anthony Rizzo in his homecoming weekend.
What they saw was another example of a Cubs team that can’t seem to find its way home at the Friendly Confines.
When Clarke Schmidt and Nestor Cortes combined on a four-hit shutout it was the 15th time this season the Cubs have been held scoreless. Only the White Sox, on their way to having the worst record in modern baseball history, have been shut out more often.
The loss was the Cubs’ fourth in their last five games, squelching any notions of a miracle comeback in the National League wild-card race. With 20 games left and a 72-70 record, they’ll try to stay over .500 and pad their stats while playing out the string.
“We feel like we have a good enough ballclub to be in the playoffs and in the picture,” left fielder Ian Happ said. “But we’re going to have to play a little bit better and keep pushing here.”
The autopsy on the 2024 Cubs won’t be official until after the season, but all leading indicators point to two main factors in the team’s demise: the bullpen and the lack of offense, particularly at Wrigley Field.
The 23 blown saves in 54 opportunities is a problem Cubs management partially dealt with in-season, replacing Héctor Neris, Mark Leiter Jr. and other high-leverage veterans with younger arms in Porter Hodge and Nate Pearson.
But the offense remains a puzzle that has no real answers. The Cubs ranked 27th with a .667 OPS in home games heading into Saturday, compared with a 10th-ranked .738 OPS in road games.
The fickle winds of Wrigley make the offense “that much more confusing to figure out,” Cubs President Jed Hoyer said Friday.
The wind blew in on Saturday for the 33rd time at Wrigley in 70 home games, and the Cubs are 12-21 when it does. Their offense has been dust in the wind at home, combining for five hits with no runs against Yankees pitching the last two days.
It’s been a recurring theme, made more obvious by the Cubs bingeing for 90 runs on their recent 8-1 trip.
“Some of that is probably randomness, and some of that is probably that the wind is virtually blowing in every day this year,” Hoyer said. “We have to take all of those things into account.”
Last year the wind blew in 43 times, and the Cubs were 22-21 in those games. They are 15-9 with the wind blowing out in ’24 and 12-6 when that happened in 2023. In summary: The Cubs need the wind to blow out to be successful with their current roster.
But if Wrigley is going to continue to play this way, do the Cubs need to rethink their roster construction to factor in the latest wind trends?
“Do you know what the weather is going to be?” manager Craig Counsell asked.
Uh, no.
“I don’t know either, so …” he said.
Well, they didn’t pay Counsell $40 million to be the next Tom Skilling. But as Bob Dylan once sang, you don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.
Maybe the Cubs need to add an associate manager of climate control to provide some clues. Or maybe they could sign Yankees free-agent slugger Juan Soto? That could weatherproof the Cubs offense for a few years at least.
“The park feels like it has played pitcher friendly more often than hitter friendly,” Counsell said. “But I don’t know how we figure out — ‘Is it going to be like that next year?’ It sounds like from everybody I’ve heard, last year was kind of the opposite. So it’s weather, right? I think the best thing we can do is be prepared to play in both situations as best we can.”
Counsell maintained the Cubs “play in the same weather as the New York Yankees or Pittsburgh Pirates, so it’s not an excuse about performance at all.”
I’m not sure a ballpark located by an extremely large lake brings the same conditions as Yankee Stadium or PNC Park, but that’s another argument for another day.
The fact Cubs pitchers ranked second in home ERA (3.22) on Saturday and only 21st on the road (4.36) suggests Wrigley has become a pitcher’s park. Who knew?
The series winds up Sunday with an enticing matchup of Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon, while the Cubs will induct Kerry Wood and Aramis Ramirez into their Hall of Fame.
At least it has been a good week to be a former Cub. Rizzo received another huge ovation before his first at-bat in the second inning Saturday.
Sunday could also be Rizzo’s last game at Wrigley for a while. The Yankees hold a $17 million option on Rizzo for 2025, and his future there is uncertain.
Despite the back-to-back shutouts, Happ said he and his teammates appreciated the reception Rizzo received from Cubs fans all weekend. Rizzo tipped his cap and waved as the Cubs played his old theme song.
“Another awesome one today in his first at-bat,” Happ said. “The walk-up song, and everything. Fans still love that. It’s cool to see. His whole family was down there right behind our on-deck circle. Good to see all of them enjoying the game, and Mr. Rizz, the legend that he is.”
