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After dropping the opener on Monday of their critical four-game series versus the Brewers, the Cubs have now lost five straight and are 4.5 games back of Milwaukee in the National League Central.
While there’s no hiding that things have been ugly of late for the Cubs, the narrative would change significantly if they could sweep the remaining three games in the series.
With Shota Imanaga slated to pitch on extra rest on Wednesday and Jameson Taillon pitching on Thursday, the Cubs likely won’t be a larger underdog than they are on Tuesday night in a matchup pitting Ben Brown (3.20 ERA, 39 1/3 IP) against Freddy Peralta (3.81 ERA, 56 2/3 IP).
Let’s take a closer look at the matchup.
Cubs vs. Brewers odds
- Moneyline: Cubs +140, Brewers -165
- Run Line: Cubs +1.5 (-150), Brewers -1.5 (+125)
- Total: Over 8 (+100), Under 8 (-120)
Odds via BetMGM
Cubs vs. Brewers prediction
Brown’s recent form has been one positive story for the Cubs of late. Kyle Hendricks’ struggles opened up an opportunity for Brown to start against the Braves last week, and he took full advantage by allowing no earned runs and only one hit in four innings of work.
He has pitched to a FIP of 2.65 and an xFIP of 3.56. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 110, and a Location+ rating of 96.
He’s effectively worked his knuckle-curve off of his high-velocity fastball. Batters own a 51% miss rate against Brown’s breaking pitches, which is the best mark in MLB among pitchers to throw at least 20 innings.
Peralta owns a 3.45 FIP and 3.26 xFIP entering this matchup. He also owns a Stuff+ of 110, and a Location+ of 96. He has struggled to an ERA of 4.70 over his last four starts.
The Brewers’ offense has been on fire over the last 30 days with a wRC+ of 111. However, they have still struck out 22.9% of the time and are benefitting from MLB’s fifth-highest batting average on balls in play (BABIP) despite a 32.3% hard-hit rate.
The Cubs’ offense has struggled to a wRC+ of 80 over the last 30 days. Much of that span was without Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner though, and they have also hit to the second-lowest average on balls in play in that span.
Cubs vs. Brewers pick
The Cubs are seemingly a little undervalued right now on offense and have the talent to find better form moving forward.
The disparity between these two lineups likely isn’t as wide as it looks right now; we have likely just seen the Cubs’ worst month and the Brewers’ best month offensively.
Brown has some positive indicators and is backed by a Cubs bullpen that currently offers more upside given the Brewers’ injuries.
The Brewers deserve to be a favorite but are a little overvalued at -170. At +142 there is value betting the Cubs to snap their five-game skid in Tuesday’s matchup.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline (+142 at DraftKings | Play to +135)
