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A season that once held plenty of promise is starting to slip away for the Chicago Cubs.
After losing three of four in San Francisco, the Cubs own just an 11.6% chance of making the playoffs, per FanGraphs, and sit 10.5 games back of the Brewers in the National League Central entering their three-game set in Milwaukee.
It’s an important series for both teams. Here’s a preview of Friday’s Game 1, where Jameson Taillon takes the mound for the Cubs to face Milwaukee’s Colin Rea.
Cubs vs. Brewers odds
- Moneyline: Cubs +120, Brewers -145
- Run Line: Cubs +1.5 (-165), Brewers -1.5 (+146)
- Total: Over 8.5 (-115), Under 8.5 (-105)
Odds via BetMGM
Cubs vs. Brewers prediction
Taillon has been one of the bright spots for the Cubs, as he holds an ERA of 2.90 across 68 1/3 innings this season. Rea has been effective as well with a 3.62 ERA across 82 innings.
Taillon’s underlying results are encouraging and suggest that he should remain a better-than-average starting option moving forward. He has pitched to an xERA of 3.65 and an xFIP of 4.29 this season, and owns a Pitching+ rating of 103.
In four June starts Taillon has elevated his strikeout rate to 24%, walking just 4% of batters while being being hard-hit just 26% of the time, with an xBA of .262. In those outings Taillon has been successful where it matters, with an ERA of 3.00.
Taillon appears to be the superior of the two starters in this matchup based upon most underlying metrics.
Rea owns an xERA of 5.34 and an xFIP of 4.67. He has struck out just 15% of batters faced, allowing an xSLG rate of .483. A career high 79.4% strand rate has helped him overachieve his expected results, but his .233 BABIP allowed with men on base does not look sustainable.
Rea holds a Stuff+ rating of 85 and a Pitching+ rating of 96. Over his last four starts, opponents own a whiff rate of just 13% and his xFIP has climbed to 4.89.
The Brewers’ offense has generated 5.19 runs per game this season at home, which ranks second in baseball. Still, their recent splits versus right-handed pitching are more comparable to the Cubs than you might expect.
The Brewers have hit to a wRC+ of 103 versus right-handed pitching over the last 30 days, with a strikeout rate of 23.5% and a hard-hit rate of 31.1%. The Cubs own a wRC+ of 100 over that span, with a strikeout rate of 24.9% and a hard-hit rate of 31.6%.
The Cubs will again be without Mike Tauchman (.741 OPS), who isn’t expected to return until August. Joey Ortiz, who is deep in the NL Rookie of the Year race with 2.6 WAR, is questionable for the Brewers.
Cubs vs. Brewers pick
Taillon looks to be the better of these two starters by some margin.
The Brewers’ offense is the better of the two units, but the recent form of these two teams is not as far off as their records might indicate.
There is value betting the Cubs as an underdog in the first five innings at +105 or better.
Pick: Cubs F5 moneyline (+110 at bet365)
