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The Cardinals’ offense is beginning to live up to its preseason expectations, and after an 8-2 run, they enter Friday night’s series opener against the Cubs just three games back of second-place Chicago.
Shota Imanaga will look to continue his masterful debut for the Cubs. Imanaga will be opposed by Miles Mikolas, who has struggled to a 5.77 ERA in 53 innings of work this season.
First pitch should feature hitter-friendly conditions as the forecast calls for 9 mph winds blowing out to centerfield and 76-degree temperatures.
Cubs vs. Cardinals odds
- Moneyline: Cubs -150, Cardinals +125
- Run Line: Cubs -1.5 (+110), Cardinals +1.5 (-135)
- Total: Over 7.5 (-120), Under 7.5 (+100)
Odds via BetMGM
Cubs vs. Cardinals prediction & pick
While Imanaga has been incredible in his nine starts, he has consistently avoided pitching in conditions favorable to home runs and run-scoring. He owns a home run-to-fly-ball ratio of just 4.8%.
The combined runs total from games Imanaga has pitched in is 4.88. Part of those low totals is simply how good he has been at run prevention, but that number illustrates the point that other pitchers have also found success in games in which he has pitched.
Over the last two outings, Imanaga has been hard-hit 43% of the time and has pitched to an xBA of .260. His 93.8% strand rate is unsustainable, and even if that mark trends toward a somewhat standard rate, he is going to look considerably less dominant.
Don’t get me wrong, Imanaga is one of the best pitchers in the National League and is a legitimate Cy Young candidate (he’s currently in a virtual tie at the top of most odds boards with Philadelphia’s Zach Wheeler). From a betting perspective though, we might be at the point where he is slightly overvalued in this specific matchup.
Perhaps part of the reason why is because the Cardinals’ offense has underachieved so badly, but it appears clear their lineup is starting to hit. Over the last two weeks, they own the league’s fourth-best wRC+ at 125 with an OPS of .771. Their BB/K ratio is up to 0.44 in that span.
Meanwhile, the Cubs’ offense has an opportunity to get right in this matchup against Mikolas after a tough series against the Braves. Mikolas has pitched to an xERA of 4.97, and has been hard-hit 44.1% of the time. He owns a Stuff+ rating of just 89, including a mark of only 67 on his four-seamer.
While his fastball rates out poorly, it’s been Mikolas’ inability to generate soft contact with his breaking stuff that is most concerning. Batters have slugged .611 versus his breaking pitches this season. He has a K-rate of only 33% in two-strike counts over the last two seasons, and he continues to struggle to put batters away.
This game total looks a touch low given the batter-friendly conditions. Bet the over 7.5 at anything better than -130.
Pick: Over 7.5 runs (-115 at ESPN Bet | Play 7.5 to -130)
