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Any edition of a rivalry as historic as the one fought between the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals is a special one, but as the last series before the All-Star break, this one holds extra intrigue. Neither team’s first half has gone as expected, albeit in very different ways.
Chicago has fallen flat, sitting last in the National League Central despite optimistic offseason projections. Even so, they’re coming off of an impressive road sweep of the AL East-leading Baltimore Orioles, so this might not be the best time for the Cardinals to be hosting their archrivals.
St. Louis, meanwhile, wasn’t expected to make much noise this year, but it currently holds a wild-card spot. The Cardinals were swept by the Kansas City Royals this week, but the schedule has spotted them an extra day of rest at home as they recover and await their rivals.
This isn’t the first meeting between these two squads this season; the Cardinals currently lead the season series 4-1, with the last meeting having been a St. Louis series win at Wrigley Field in May. This series will be a four-game set, with all of the action packed into three days by virtue of a Saturday doubleheader to make up for a previous rainout.
With a huge weekend on the way for both squads, let’s dig into what to expect in Game 1.
Cubs vs. Cardinals odds
- Moneyline: Cubs +165 | Cardinals -200
- Run Line: Cubs +1.5 (-120) | Cardinals -1.5 (+100)
- Total: Over 8 runs (-105) | Under 8 runs (-115)
Odds via BetMGM
Cubs vs. Cardinals prediction
The Cubs are tied for last in the Central, while the Cardinals are in second place. Four games separate the teams in the standings. However, the hot start for St. Louis might be fueled by some luck. The Cubs have a run differential of just -5, while the Cardinals are down to -38, implying the gap between these two teams isn’t as large as their records might imply, or that Chicago is the better team outright, and has been a bit unlucky thus far.
The Cardinals have a very interesting profile, as they sit in a postseason spot with no qualified batters owning an OPS above .800. Catcher Willson Contreras owns a mark of .894, but he’s played in only 47 games, although the small sample size makes his 2.1 WAR even more impressive.
With veteran stars Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt putting up OPS numbers below .700, the likes of Nolan Gorman and Alec Burleson have stepped up with 17 and 15 homers apiece, while Burleson leads qualified Cardinal bats with an OPS of .790. Additionally, rookie shortstop Masyn Wynn has accumulated a 3 WAR in a great first half of the season.
Meanwhile, there have been few bright spots in a really rough Chicago offense. First baseman Michael Busch has put up some nice numbers in his first full pro season, with an OPS above .850 and nearly 2.5 WAR thus far. Busch, Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki have been the only consistent positives in the lineup as generally reliable names like Cody Bellinger and Dansby Swanson have struggled.
The starting pitching matchup on Friday favors the Cardinals. Veteran righty Kyle Hendricks is having easily his worst season for Chicago, although recently he’s had better results after shifting to a reliever/opener role, save for a recent disaster of a start against the first-place Brewers.
Sonny Gray has settled into St. Louis nicely as he’s putting in plenty of productive starts, and he’s been especially good at home. He’s earned a 1.90 ERA with a WHIP of 0.827 in St. Louis, while those marks are 5.09 and 1.303 on the road. He also struggles against lefties, who have hit him for an OPS of .784 compared to .474 for right-handed bats. Busch could be a threat, although he does display reverse splits, but Bellinger isn’t as imposing as he has been in the past, especially as he’s earned a reverse split as well.
Cubs vs. Cardinals pick
If Friday’s matchup becomes a battle of the bullpens — which it might be for Chicago if Hendricks is to act as an opener — that favors St. Louis as well. The Cardinals have accrued the sixth-best bullpen ERA in the majors (3.50), anchored by Ryan Helsley, the team’s lone All-Star and one of the best closers in the game. By contrast, Chicago’s pen does not feature a true centerpiece and is below average by most metrics.
This one favors the Cardinals from just about all angles; expect them to coast and Chicago to regress to the mean just a bit after a nice winning streak fueled by that Baltimore series.
Pick: Cardinals -1.5 (+110, ESPN Bet))
