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This isn’t yet a lost season for either the Chicago Cubs or the Cincinnati Reds, but it’s certainly teetering. At five games below .500, neither team is fully out of the race in a packed National League, but neither is positioned where they would like to be at this stage.
In the waning days of July, just ahead of the trade deadline, these two divisional rivals will duke it out with the hopes of starting up a late season run. The Cubs are already on their way, with a nice road series win capped off by two wins over the Kansas City Royals. Meanwhile, the Reds will look to bounce back after dropping the final two games of a weekend set in Tampa Bay.
Speaking of the Rays — teams look to identify the best course of action for the rest of the season with bold moves. The Cubs, despite indications that they would be “sellers,” went out and got Tampa third baseman Isaac Paredes. He hasn’t yet debuted for the team, meaning he’s set to play six consecutive games against Cincinnati after the weekend set as a Ray. After receiving American League MVP votes last year and earning his first All-Star nod this year, he’ll look to make an impact in the senior circuit.
With rookie arm Carson Spiers taking the mound for Cincinnati against Chicago veteran Jameson Taillon, the pitching matchup gives this game a chance to be a really interesting one. Let’s talk about what to expect, and the best way to bet Monday’s series opener.
Cubs vs. Reds odds
- Moneyline: Cubs -110 | Reds -106
- Run Line: Cubs -1.5 (+146) | Reds +1.5 (-178)
- Total: Over 9 (-112) | Under 9 (-108)
Odds via FanDuel
Cubs vs. Reds prediction
The odds for this one are just about as close as you’ll see all season, and for good reason; there’s not too much separating these two teams. In fact, in the standings, there’s nothing at all — they’re tied for dead last in the National League Central.
Similarly, the pitching matchup is a pretty competitive one, featuring two arms that have each had a solid campaign thus far.
Taillon’s numbers are better on a surface level. He’s working on the first sub-3.00 ERA of his career, almost a run better than Spiers’s mark. However, when digging into some advanced numbers, there are some commonalities between the two arms. As per Statcast, both pitchers are in the 90th percentile or better for walk rate, the only category in which either is above the 75th percentile. Neither one generates many whiffs or ground balls, and they’re both more or less average in terms of chase rate.
When it comes to quality of contact metrics, however, Spiers actually has an edge. For barrel percentage, he’s in the 66th percentile while Taillon is in the 55th, as well as 73rd for hard-hit percentage compared to Taillon’s 68th and 69th in average exit velocity while Taillon is a dismal 29th. Simply put, when hitters get a bat on Taillon’s offerings, they hit it harder, probably not a sustainable approach given the fact that he is 27th percentile in ground ball rate.
The two offenses rank pretty close to one another by most metrics; slightly below average compared to league-wide numbers. The Reds hold the overall edge in key stats like OPS, a gap that only widens when the teams are facing right-handed pitchers like both Spiers and Taillon — even new acquisition Paredes does much of his damage against lefties. Interestingly enough, neither pitcher shows significant inning-based splits, so both should be well-equipped to get through the lineup a couple of times if needed.
Cubs vs. Reds pick
After the starters give the ball up, however, Cincy has a significant edge in bullpen ERA, ranking fourth in the majors with an impressive line of 3.45. With key players like Elly De La Cruz, Jeimer Candelario, and Spencer Steer closing their best against righties, and a better chance to see this game through the late innings, let’s back Cincy to come away with the win.
Pick: Reds Moneyline (-106)