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The Cubs will look to avoid a being swept at the hands of rival Cincinnati on Wednesday. The Cubs have not been close thus far in the series being outscored 13-3, and the Reds have jumped out of last place in the division with the pair of victories.
Cincinnati is favored to win once again Wednesday with Kyle Hendricks (6.95 ERA, 80 and 1/3 IP) set to matchup against Nick Lodolo (3.45 ERA, 91 and 1/3 IP).
Cubs vs. Reds odds
- Moneyline: Cubs +130 | Reds -154
- Run Line: Cubs +1.5 (-154) | Reds -1.5 (+128)
- Total: Over 9.5 (-105) | Under 9.5 (-115)
Odds via FanDuel
Cubs vs. Reds prediction
The Cubs have already faced off against Lodolo twice this season, and did not find much success in a pair of back-to-back matchups on June 2 and June 7. Lodolo allowed only three earned runs across 12 innings of work in those matchups, and allowed a total of 11 hits.
That shouldn’t be overly surprising, as since June 1 Chicago has been the least productive side in MLB against left-handed pitching. It holds a wRC+ of 80, and has made hard contact just 27% of the time in that span, which ranks 29th.
The addition of Isaac Paredes should help the Cubs improve in splits to lefties to some extent, as Paredes has slugged .500 and holds an OPS of .881 against LHP this season.
Lodolo has also displayed lesser form ahead of this start, and has featured far less convincing underlying numbers of late. Over the last five starts, Lodolo has pitched to a 5.19 ERA and has seen his xFIP climb to 4.43. He has been hard-hit 41% of the time in those outings, and seen his strikeout rate drop to 21%.
The Reds quietly provide a tough matchup for Hendricks based on there recent results against right-handed pitching. Since the start of June, the Reds 103 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers ranks 11th in MLB. They have been even more potent against RHP recently, as since July 1 their wRC+ of 116 ranks eighth in MLB.
Hendricks has struggled to a 7.49 ERA on the road this season in a relatively large sample of 45 and 2/3 innings of work. He remains in bad form ahead of this matchup, as he has pitched to an ERA of 7.15 in his last five appearances, with an xFIP of 5.25. He’s allowed a .297 xBA in those outings, and struck-out just 13% of batters faced.
Cubs vs. Reds pick
A healthier Cubs lineup that now features Paredes should be able to hit to slightly improved splits against lefties the rest of the way. They get yet another look at Lodolo here, and the chances Chicago generates some offense at batter-friendly Great American Ball Park seem to be slightly underrated here by oddsmakers.
Hendricks continues to look like a pure fade candidate though, and the Reds offense should be able to continue its quality play in this matchup.
Even a high total of 9.5 looks a touch too low considering the recent form of these two starters. At anything better than -115, there is value backing the over 9.5
Pick: Over 9.5 (-110) | Play to -115 at bet365
