Last week’s death of Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar, the world’s most wanted terrorist, has unleashed a torrent of new questions about the state of the war in Gaza, Israel’s goals and the Biden administration’s overall strategy. Where does Hamas go from here now that its top leader has been taken off the board? Will the Israeli government wind down operations, and if so, what will the so-called “day after” look like? And will President Joe Biden now have an opening to end the war before he heads into retirement in three months?
In Washington, Sinwar’s demise is a godsend for two reasons. First, since the lifelong Hamas operator was responsible for the most barbaric attack in Israel’s history, taking him out is the ultimate act of justice. Second, Sinwar leaving the scene could theoretically boost the prospects of a diplomatic process between Israel and Hamas that has been dead since the summer. This is certainly what the Biden administration is hoping for.
“I think his removal from the battlefield does present an opportunity to find a way forward that gets the hostages home, brings the war to an end, brings us to a day after,” national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters aboard Air Force One. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is heading to the Middle East for the 11th time since the Oct. 7 attacks, aiming to inject some momentum into moribund cease-fire talks.
The hope and optimism are understandable. Nobody wants the war to end as much as the roughly 2 million Palestinians in Gaza whose lives have been upended or the families of the remaining hostages who are still in Hamas’ grasp. The images that have streamed out of Gaza (and now Lebanon) over the last year are as disturbing as they are heartbreaking; a deal that stops the killing and allows the United States to distance itself from this conflict is beyond tempting.
Unfortunately, the fundamentals of the war haven’t changed. The Palestinian militant’s death is a dramatic moment for the Israelis. But it’s also a short-term accomplishment, particularly considering that Israel is led by a government that would rather press on militarily than sign a deal that leaves Hamas with influence in Gaza. As evil and problematic as Sinwar was, he was only one man. There are several other obstacles to an agreement, any one of which could make Blinken’s latest trip to the region another diplomatic failure.
A major question mark right now is who Sinwar’s replacement will be. There are several possibilities, including former Hamas political chief Khaled Meshaal, Sinwar’s deputy, Khalil al-Hayya, and Sinwar’s younger brother, Mohammed. More important than the individual, however, is whether the group’s core position on the war will soften. Although we’re in the early days since Sinwar’s death, the evidence so far suggests that Hamas won’t. Al-Hayya recently reiterated Hamas’s main demand — if Israel wants the rest of the hostages returned to their families, then it has to stop the war immediately. Any conclusion of the war would require thousands of Israeli military members to pack up and leave Gaza. Short of that, from Hamas’ perspective, there is nothing to talk about.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is as intransigent as Hamas. Even if Hamas were willing to change its position, it’s exceedingly unlikely Netanyahu would be willing to treat Sinwar’s death as an opportunity to negotiate. Last week, Netanyahu released a video statement to the Israeli public, delivering his message clearly: Just because Sinwar is no longer around to terrorize the state of Israel doesn’t necessarily translate into a silencing of the warfare. At the same time Netanyahu gave his remarks, the Israeli military was invading Jabalia, a large refugee camp in northern Gaza, for a third time to prevent Hamas from regrouping in the area. The fighting has been some of the heaviest in the entire war, with medical sources saying that more than 600 Palestinians have been killed in less than three weeks.
U.S. officials were hopeful that Sinwar’s death would inspire Netanyahu to package it as a massive win and find a way to de-escalate because the prime minister would have the political cover do so.
Such delusional hope assumes that the Israeli government is interested in an off-ramp. Netanyahu instead is using the Hamas chief’s death as an example of why he was right to repeatedly spurn Washington’s calls for a cease-fire. The Biden administration believes the events of last week are of such monumental importance that the Israeli premier would change his spots. But Netanyahu still depends on the same hard-core, ultranationalist ministers to maintain power — and many of those ministers will settle for nothing short of a total military defeat of Hamas as an organization and the formal incorporation of Gaza into Israel.
The world indisputably is better off without Sinwar in it. But the situation, post-Sinwar, doesn’t look all that different. Israel still wants Hamas defeated, and Hamas still wants an immediate cease-fire and Israeli withdrawal. Unless this changes, expect the deadly status quo to continue.
Daniel DePetris is a fellow at Defense Priorities and a foreign affairs columnist for the Chicago Tribune.
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