SPRINGFIELD – A day before Gov. JB Pritzker unveils what he has promised will be a balanced budget, Democratic leaders who had been bracing for a deficit of more than $3 billion expressed confidence that the outlook had improved.
“I do think that there’s some pleasant surprises with revenue projections, but then there’s some other things that they’ve done to close the gap,” House Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch of Hillside said after a meeting in the governor’s Springfield office Tuesday.
“Revenue projections are up,” he said, without elaborating.
No tax increases are expected in the governor’s proposed budget, which might even include a small surplus, Welch said.
Senate President Don Harmon also expressed optimism after the meeting in the governor’s office.
“It’s going to be a good — a better proposal than we were bracing for a couple months ago,” the Oak Park Democrat said.
While projections inevitably change over time, the possibility of a surplus is surprising given that the governor’s budget office in November said it expected a deficit of about $3.2 billion. The budget faced challenges including lagging sales tax revenue and uncertainty about federal funding under President Donald Trump.
Senate Republican leader John Curran of Downers Grove was also in the briefing, but declined to offer his take on what’s coming.
“The governor is going to provide an update on revenue projections. Certainly, I’m going to let the governor present that to the public and would not want to get out in front of that so we appreciate them sharing the information with us,” Curran said.
With billions of dollars in federal pandemic money no longer available to Illinois, the next spending plan promises to be a test of fiscal discipline for a Democratic governor who was forced to raise taxes by hundreds of millions of dollars last year to balance the budget. Pritzker has said tax hikes are a last resort as he prepared for this year’s proposal.
The governor’s budget speech on Wednesday doubles as his annual “State of the State address” to offer new initiatives, and comes as Pritzker gets closer to making a decision on whether to seek a third term next year, while also pondering a potential post-Trump presidential bid.
Pritzker, as he often does, has in recent weeks blamed some of the problems that lie ahead on past budgetary failures and short-term thinking, such as not keeping up with infrastructure maintenance.
“It’s challenging. Every year. Because of the failures of decades in Illinois, we’re essentially — ‘Well, we don’t need to invest in this. We’ll just put that money into this program over here that we like today.’ — So, we’re being very careful,” he said during an unrelated event on Jan. 31 in Springfield. “You’re going to see a balanced budget. I don’t introduce budgets that aren’t balanced.”
Pritzker in recent weeks also has kept up a steady drumbeat of criticism against Trump. In response to questions about the budget, Pritzker spokesperson Alex Gough said last week in a statement that “the Trump administration has proved they are a unique danger to our fiscal stability, but we are prepared to do everything within our means to deliver for working families and maintain critical services Illinoisans rely on every day.”
In late 2023, the Governor’s Office of Management and Budget pegged the deficit for the current fiscal year at just under $900 million, less than three times the projected deficit of roughly $3.2 billion made in November for the coming year. For Pritzker and his Democratic allies in the General Assembly, balancing the current budget required about $750 million in tax hikes, a package that included a contentious move to raise taxes on sportsbooks.
The state’s current operating budget was set at $53.1 million, about a third higher than when Pritzker took office in 2019 (Adjusting for recent high inflation, the growth is closer to 8%.) Late last month, the governor said it’ll be important that “we live within our means in this state and that we not resort to tax increases,” while his administration has also told state agencies in recent months to prepare for possible cuts to their budgets.
State Sen. Chapin Rose, the top Republican budget negotiator, at a news conference Tuesday said he wants to see greater transparency in state spending and for Democrats to “absolutely not put more taxes on the backs of working people in this state.”
Echoing the rhetoric of national Republicans, leaders of the minority party in Springfield also repeatedly criticized funding for what they call “noncitizen programming,” such as the state’s Medicaid-style program for immigrants who are in the country without legal permission.
The state faces mandated increases in both contributions to the state’s pension systems, which together face unfunded liabilities of roughly $144 billion, and for funding for elementary and secondary education. Pritzker is expected to call for boosting funding for schools by the mandated minimum of $350 million and devoting an additional $75 million to his multi-year plan to add 20,000 seats to state-funded preschool programs by the end of his second term.
Several hot button political issues are likely to drive the debate over spending as the spring legislative session goes on.
Chicago-area mass transit, including the CTA, Metra commuter rail and the Pace suburban bus service, faces a fiscal cliff of about $770 million in 2026 with the impending end of federal pandemic relief, and some lawmakers have discussed spending more than $1 billion to transform the system. There’s also pressure from City Hall to help address funding woes within the city’s public school system amid tense contract negotiations with Mayor Brandon Johnson’s closest political ally, the Chicago Teachers Union.
Democrats in Springfield are also pushing to address a growing concern that pension plans for more recently hired public employees, who don’t receive Social Security in retirement, might not meet minimum benefits required by the federal government.
Speaking to reporters last month at the state Capitol, Deputy Gov. Andy Manar, Pritzker’s point person on budgetary matters, was vague on the details of the governor’s proposal, but said, “you’re going to see a focus on efficiencies in state government.”
