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The standings may not reset after the All-Star break, but there’s always a feeling of a fresh start. For some teams, that feeling can be the catalyst for a hugely successful second half and even a big postseason run, while others come right back down to earth and limp to the finish line.
One game into the second half of the season, the defending National League champion Arizona Diamondbacks look like they’ve been launched in the right direction. After essentially a .500 first half, they picked up a nice 5-2 road win over the Chicago Cubs in their first contest after the break.
The Cubs, who are down but not out of the NL playoff race, managed eight hits and four walks in the defeat but struggled to turn those baserunners into just two late runs. That game was the first of a weekend set at Wrigley Field. On Saturday, Arizona will look to secure the series, while Chicago will look to fight back on their home field and turn Sunday afternoon’s contest into a rubber match.
With so much still to play for from both teams’ perspectives, let’s take a look at what to look for in Saturday night’s matchup and how to find some betting value.
Diamondbacks vs. Cubs odds
- Moneyline: Diamondbacks -136 | Cubs +116
- Run Line: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+122) | Cubs +1.5 (-146)
- Total: Over 9.5 runs: -102 | Under 9.5 runs: -120
Odds via FanDuel
Diamondbacks vs. Cubs prediction
After a four-game series split with the rival Cardinals to wrap up the first half and that loss in the first game of the second half, the Cubs are still dead last in the division, but just four games away from a National League Wild Card spot, certainly not an insurmountable gap. For this matchup, they’ll be relying on Kyle Hendricks, who is in a fascinating spot.
Going into his final start of the first half, Hendricks owned an ERA of 7.53, an ugly number that was previously even worse, sitting over 10.00 as the calendar turned to June. He had settled down with a few passable performances, albeit mostly as an opener or reliever. Then, on July 12th against the Cardinals, he locked in for a masterful performance; seven innings, one walk, five hits, no runs allowed.
His performance left us with a pair of questions to ask; where exactly did that come from, and which Hendricks can we expect going forward? The completely helpless one from the early stages of the season, or the old-school ace we saw about a week ago? The answer probably lies somewhere in the middle, making it wise to exercise caution when evaluating bets that involve Hendricks or the Cubs in general when he’s on the mound.
It’s a bit of an opposite story for Arizona’s ace, Zac Gallen. He’s not in his best form compared to the last couple of seasons, but that’s only the case as of late; after June, his ERA was sitting at a sparkling 2.83. However, his July has seen him allow 13 earned runs in 13 innings of work, certainly a three-start stretch to forget. With Gallen, however, it’s a bit easier to know how to contextualize recent form than it is with Hendricks. Gallen is 28, in the midst of his prime, and had a few rough starts, namely one particularly brutal one (6 ER in 3.2 IP against the Blue Jays in his final start of the first half). He’s just been given a week to rest and recalibrate, so we should expect him to be much closer to his best this time out.
As for the 34-year-old Hendricks, he’s posted a sub-4.00 ERA just once (3.74 in 2023) in the past four seasons, including this one. One vintage start should not dissuade us from the notion that he’s on a downward trajectory, and we should be wary of him against an Arizona offense that ranks ninth in the majors in OPS and second in runs scored.
Diamondbacks vs. Cubs pick
Neither team displays a major platoon split in terms of its key hitters; it should be business as usual for these right-handed starters, even against the big lefty hitters on both sides. With a true ace ready to go for the D-backs, let’s back them to roll once again and pick up the win.
While these types of lines are not yet out as of press time, also think about betting the under on the Cubs’ team total, as long as the number is a reasonable one. When possible, it might be better to solely fade that lineup against Gallen than to invest in either side of a line that partially involves Hendricks.
Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-136, FanDuel)
