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Expectations are sky-high for Chicago ahead of Caleb Williams’ rookie season, and fans have every right to be excited about the new-look Bears.
One of the most significant offseason additions was wide receiver Keenan Allen, who finished last season with more than 1,200 receiving yards for the Chargers before being traded to the Bears.
However, I’m tempering my expectations for the veteran wideout in 2024 as Allen prepares to play for a new team for the first time in his career. With a receiving-yards prop set at 825.5 at DraftKings, let’s look at the factors that could influence Allen’s success this season.
Recapping Allen’s 2023 season
The Los Angeles Chargers had another disappointing campaign in 2023, finishing with a 5-12 record. However, Keenan Allen had one of his best seasons in years. He finished with 2.36 yards per route run – that ranked 10th in the NFL and was his best mark since 2017. Allen also finished with the third-best PFF grade of his career and his best since 2018.
While Allen’s ability to separate downfield has diminished, he’s still superb at winning in the short and intermediate part of the field. According to Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception profile, over 60% of Allen’s routes were screens, slants, flats, curls or digs. He ranked just 71st out of 96 qualified receivers in average depth of target (aDOT).
Allen missed four games last season, and he’s missed 10 in the previous two years. His injury risk remains significant at age 32, and DraftSharks gives him a 74.9% chance of injury in 2024. That site projects him to miss 3.1 games, and it would be wise to bake in that injury risk when projecting his production for this season.
Increased target competition
Allen finished with over a 30% target share in games played last season and averaged 11.5 targets per game. Of course, earning targets is a skill, but Allen certainly benefited from the circumstances the Chargers faced last season. Mike Williams played in just three games, rookie Quentin Johnston failed to make a significant impact and an injury diminished Austin Ekeler’s production.
In Chicago, Allen faces much stiffer competition in earning targets. In his first season with the Bears in 2023, DJ Moore drew a career-high 28.9% target share, ranking 10th among wide receivers. Moore is five years younger than Allen, and his role as the WR1 shouldn’t be in question.
The Bears also spent the ninth overall pick in the draft on wide receiver Rome Odunze. According to Harmon, Odunze has “every skill you want from a 28-30% target share X-receiver.” Odunze had an elite 80% success rate against press coverage last season, per Harmon’s tracking, ranking in the 92nd percentile.
We should also expect the Bears to operate a balanced offense, as a successful run game can help make Williams’ life much easier. Chicago ranked second in run-block win rate last year, per ESPN, and it boasts three talented running backs — D’Andre Swift, Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson — as well as fullback Khari Blasingame.
Shane Waldron’s scheme
The Bears made a change at offensive coordinator, bringing in Shane Waldron from Seattle. A Sean McVay disciple, Waldron doesn’t live in 11 personnel (three wide receivers) as much as his former mentor. Waldron’s offense in Seattle ran 11 personnel at just a 42% rate last year, which ranked 23rd in the NFL, despite having D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Waldron ran an above-average rate of 12 personnel (two tight ends) in Seattle last year. In anticipation, Chicago signed Allen’s former Chargers teammate Gerald Everett to a two-year, $12 million deal. Cole Kmet is already on the team, and his role as a pass catcher isn’t going anywhere after he had just one drop on 88 targets in 2023.
Allen is expected to be the primary slot receiver in this offense; Moore has a career 22.6% slot rate and Odunze’s slot rate was 23.9% in four years at Washington. Smith-Njigba’s utilization in that slot role could be instructive for projecting Allen’s utilization, which would be concerning.
JSN led the Seahawks last year with a 69% slot rate, and his 6.4-yard aDOT was the fourth-lowest in the NFL. He compensated for that meager role by averaging 5.9 yards after catch (YAC) per reception, which ranked 12th among qualified receivers, per PFF. However, Allen averages just 4.2 YAC for his career and hasn’t cleared 5.0 in a single season since 2017. It’s unlikely his YAC will drastically improve in his age-32 season.
Fading Keenan Allen
While Allen carries plenty of cache as a six-time Pro Bowler, I’m not overly bullish on his upside with his new team. He is still elite at separating from defenders in the short and intermediate game, but his upside as a slot receiver in Waldron’s offense is limited. He’s also facing far more target competition than he has in years as he prepares for his age-32 season.
The Bears only traded a fourth-round pick for Allen and haven’t extended his contract past this season. Chicago entered the offseason with the fourth-most salary cap space, giving general manager Ryan Poles the flexibility to make a luxury addition in Allen to make his rookie quarterback’s life easier.
With the added downside of injury risk, I’m fading Allen in his first season in Chicago. Bet on the veteran wideout to finish with fewer than 825.5 yards in 2024.
