President-elect Donald Trump will come into the White House amid an international environment where multiple major conflicts around the world have greatly intensified, according to two Indiana University foreign affairs experts.
“He’s entering an environment in which U.S. credibility and consistency are in doubt and therefore one of many sources of uncertainty in international relations,” said John Ciorciari, Dean of the Hamilton Lugar School of Global and International Studies.
When it comes to foreign policy, Trump faces three categories of foreign policy issues: national security, allies and economic policy, said Pierre Atlas, a senior lecturer at the Indiana University Paul O’Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs.
National security issues include Russia’s war in Ukraine and the multiple hot spots in the Middle East, including Israel’s war in Gaza, Atlas said.
When it comes to allies, Trump will have to decide which countries he would like to maintain alliances with, Atlas said. Trump will also have to consider the impact of his proposed tariffs and how that will impact the U.S. economy, Atlas said.
If the U.S. were to stop supporting other countries within their wars or conflicts, Atlas said the long-term impact would be the U.S. relationship with its allies. While the U.S. has been the world’s greatest superpower, it needs allies, he said.
One danger of another Trump presidency will be Trump’s willingness to partner with U.S. adversaries, like Russia, China, and North Korea, rather than the U.S. allies, Atlas said.
“Our democratic allies are essential in the Pacific, in Europe, around the world. If this sort of an America first pull-back, economic tariffs against our allies, it could diminish America’s power, America’s influence in the world,” Atlas said. “If America’s influence and power diminishes, it makes America less safe.”
Ukraine and Russia
As Russia’s war in Ukraine heads into its third year, a sensible starting point for the Trump administration would be to think about how U.S. action would help Ukraine defend itself and maintain negotiating leverage with Russia, Ciorciari said.
“Unfortunately, things that Trump has said and done already — both as a past president and as a candidate in this cycle — call into question the reliability of U.S. support for Ukraine. Nobody knows exactly what Trump has in mind as a way to resolve the conflict quickly,” Ciorciari said.
The war in Ukraine isn’t just a war between Russia and Ukraine but also a war between the democratic west and authoritarianism where Ukraine is the battleground, Atlas said. Russia has received support from North Korea, Iran, and China, all authoritarian regimes, and Ukraine has received support from the U.S and Europe, Democratic countries, he said.
“That’s the setting … which Donald Trump walks into,” Atlas said. “I question whether Trump sees the conflict in those terms. He does not have sympathy for Ukraine. He has a very unusual sympathy for Russia and a very strong relationship with (Russian President Vladimir) Putin.”
Atlas said he doesn’t believe that Trump would end U.S. aid to Ukraine immediately because Trump would hold that as a bargaining tool to make sure Ukraine and Russia negotiate an end to the war.
But, if Trump decided to end aid to Ukraine, Ciorciari said it’s difficult to imagine the Ukrainian war effort sustaining itself at the level needed to ward off Russia’s advances. As a result, Ukrainian officials would be forced to the negotiation table with Russia with an unfavorable outcome for Ukraine, he said.
If Russia were to walk away with substantial Ukrainian territory, Ciorciari said Europe and NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, would have to prepare for a stronger Russian presence. Europe and NATO would face an even more challenging situation if the U.S. exited NATO, which Trump tried to do in his first term, Ciorciari said.
“Any weakening of those institutions would be deeply detrimental to the United States’ national security interests,” Ciorciari said.
While Trump has made statements about ending the war in Ukraine on his first day in office, Atlas said that is very unlikely. The only way he could try to do that, Atlas said, would be to have Ukraine surrender to Russia, but that won’t happen because Ukraine has shown it will continue fighting the war.
“Nobody will be able to end it in one day. That’s not possible,” Atlas said.
Most recently, North Korea has sent troops to support Russia in the war, which points to North Korea solidifying its relationship with Russia but also its effort to give soldiers battlefield experience, Ciorciari said.
On the whole, while countries in Asia aren’t current hotspots, Ciorciari said leaders of those countries are likely worried that the U.S. will return to its position in the early 2000s, where U.S. officials were so consumed with the Middle East that it focused less on the long-term challenges in Asia.
Middle East
When it comes to the Israel and Hamas war in Gaza, Ciorciari said Trump has made it very clear that his priority would be to advance Israeli interests, particularly the interests of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
While President Joe Biden’s administration has privately pressured Netanyahu to moderate its tactics in Gaza against the Palestinian people who live there, Ciorciari said it’s unlikely that Trump would do the same.
“Trump is more likely to take the approach of providing the Israelis what they request by way of defense support and other forms of support so that Israel can prosecute the conflict on its own terms,” Ciorciari said.
Trump has made statements about Israel doing whatever it needs to do to end the war, Atlas said.
“Trump will probably give Israel more leeway in taking military actions in Gaza,” Atlas said.
On Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacked Israel, Atlas said, but the next day Hezbollah, an Iran-supported Lebanese Shia militia, attacked Israel. Since then, Israel has been in a war with Hezbollah as well, which forced Iran, which backs Hezbollah, to begin fighting with Israel.
In Syria, President Bashar Assad was able to stay in power amid the country’s 13-year civil war because Hezbollah, along with Iran and Russia, was supporting his efforts, Atlas said. Iran and Hezbollah grew weaker amid their fighting with Israel, and Russia has needed its troops for the war in Ukraine, he said.
But with the diminishing of Hezbollah, rebels were able to take over Syria, which neighbors Lebanon, and forced Assad to flee to Moscow on Dec. 8, Atlas said.
“Trump is going to inherit a new Middle East that didn’t exist a week ago,” Atlas said. “What Trump has been sort of signaling … is this ‘America First,’ hands-off approach where he really doesn’t want to get involved in things and let things happen however they happen. It could potentially lead to more chaos if we don’t play a role.”
The rebel takeover, which shocked many foreign affairs analysts, stems from the Syrian civil war between the Assad regime and rebel forces that began in 2011, Ciorciari said.
The United States supported Syria at the start of the war, Ciorciari said, but the support was limited because former President Barack Obama did not want to enter another war in the Middle East amid the Iraq War, Ciorciari said.
Until the rebel takeover, Ciorciari said intelligence agencies believed the Assad regime had secured the country and that rebel groups did not have enough resources to challenge the Assad regime.
“The fact that that was all wrong both points to the apparent limits of our intelligence in Syria and also the dynamism of the conflict there,” Ciorciari said. “This will be a turbulent period for the country, and the United States, at present, doesn’t have a close relationship with the new government.”
After power consolidation in Syria, the new government will likely be at odds with Israel, Iran and Iraq, Ciorciari said. In that instance, it’s unclear how Trump will orient the U.S. within that dynamic, he said.
“There’s a lot of uncertainty both about what will happen in Syria in general, from a Syrian perspective, but also how the United States will react to that under Trump,” Ciorciari said.
Trade wars
Trump’s position on foreign affairs relies heavily on threats of sanctions and tariffs, Ciorciari said.
“Trump’s rhetoric has suggested a readiness to dramatically escalate on the economic front,” Ciorciari said.
While not a military challenge, China presents an issue for the U.S. amid Trump’s proposed tariffs, Atlas said. China has been a trading partner with the U.S., Atlas said, but also has been an aggressor in Asia, particularly with U.S. allies Japan and South Korea.
Tariffs will increase the prices of goods in America, Atlas said. For example, 40% of shoes sold in the U.S. are made in China, so if Trump puts a tariff on goods from China then the cost of shoes for Americans will increase, he said.
Trump has proposed a 25% tariff on items coming from Canada, so construction goods like lumber and cement will increase for the American consumer, Atlas said. Trump has mentioned tariffs for goods from Mexico, which would include an increase in costs for parts in American manufacturing, he said.
Trump has never understood tariffs, Atlas said. Trump believes that tariffs are paid for by the foreign country, but tariffs are taxes on imports, the cost of which has been passed on to the consumer, he said.
“We as consumers will pay the costs of the increase. You actually may have an increase in inflation, increase in prices, and things like that,” Atlas said.
If the U.S. institutes tariffs, then other countries will respond with tariffs that will impact American exported goods, Atlas said. That would mean that American manufacturing and agriculture businesses would suffer if export goods decrease in quantity, he said.
“Nobody ever wins a trade war. Everybody loses in a trade war,” Atlas said. “The cost of ordinary products for Americans will go up. American exports will go down. It can have a very negative impact on the economy.”