For months, Chicagoland’s transit agencies have sounded an alarm: If lawmakers don’t plug a looming $771 million budget gap, they warned, residents will experience drastic service cuts on the CTA, Metra and Pace next year.
Over the weekend, Illinois lawmakers adjourned their spring legislative session without passing legislation that would avert the fiscal cliff.
The Regional Transportation Authority, which oversees CTA, Metra and Pace, has warned that it will have to start planning for dramatic cuts to transit service.
Next year, riders could experience a 40% reduction in transit service — with some rail lines and bus routes eliminated entirely — the RTA has warned. Nearly 3,000 workers could lose their jobs.
Still, service cuts are not slated to start until COVID-19 relief funding runs out in January, or even later into next year. That means there is still time for lawmakers to go back to Springfield to take another stab at passing legislation that would plug the budget gap.
However, any legislation passed after May 31 that would take effect before June 2026 requires — per the state’s constitution — a three-fifths majority in both chambers rather than a simple majority. That makes lawmakers’ task harder.
Here’s what Chicagoans need to know about the future of transit service in the metro area.
What happened in the legislature last week?
In short, lawmakers in both chambers introduced legislation that would have revamped the structure of the RTA, which oversees the CTA, Metra and Pace. A Senate proposal that included funding mechanisms for those reforms and to avert the looming fiscal cliff — largely in the form of various taxes and fees — failed to get over the finish line in the House.
As the spring legislative session came to a close, a mantra of “no funding without reform” came to dominate conversations in Springfield about the looming transit fiscal cliff. Bills introduced last week would have replaced the RTA with a new entity called the Northern Illinois Transit Authority that would be given broad planning authority.
But after months of behind-the-scenes negotiations, lawmakers only began publicly sharing their ideas for revenue generation to avert the fiscal cliff on Thursday.
Those ideas included a 50 cent tollway tax that got shut down after fierce opposition from organized labor and suburban lawmakers and a $1.50 retail delivery fee that garnered similarly ferocious opposition from powerful business groups.
Shortly before May 31 gave way to June 1, the Senate approved a version of the bill that would have included the $1.50 package delivery fee.
But the bill, sponsored by Democratic Sen. Ram Villivalam, was never called for a vote in the House. The legislature adjourned in the early hours of Sunday morning without passing any transit legislation at all.
While the General Assembly has been engaged in negotiations over ways to overhaul public transit in the Chicago area for months, if not longer, state Rep. Kam Buckner, one of the sponsors of the House’s transit reform bill, noted the Senate’s approach was different than the House’s in that the Senate decided to include revenue options in its proposal while the House wanted to discuss operational fixes first before getting into how it’d all be funded.
Buckner noted that he and Chicago Rep. Eva-Dina Delgado, the main sponsor of the House’s transit bill, were among the key House Democratic negotiators for the entire state budget, and Buckner said he was concerned about a transit revenue vote in the House derailing the budget talks.
Buckner also said the House wasn’t aware that the $1.50 delivery proposal from the Senate was a possibility, “which is why we never talked about it with our folks.” All in all, he felt it would have been “disingenuous” and “irresponsible” to ask fellow House members to vote on the bill without being more familiar with its revenue proposals.
“It jeopardizes the integrity of what we’ve built in the House and we made the right call,” Buckner said of the House’s decision to not call the bill.
In a statement on Monday, Villivalam reiterated his consistent message on the issue that “there will be no funding without reform” and said he looked forward to working with Delgado and Buckner “to get this package of reforms and funding across the finish line.”
Do lawmakers still have time to avert the fiscal cliff?
Yes. Lawmakers could go back to Springfield later this year to pass transit legislation that would plug the funding gap. Any laws passed after the end of May taking effect before June 2026 require three-fifths approval in both chambers to pass, which makes the path forward more difficult than it was on May 31.
While lawmakers will be scheduled to return to Springfield for the fall veto session, most likely in October or November, there’s nothing stopping them from reconvening before that. Lawmakers had already left the door open to the possibility of coming back to the Capitol in the summer if they need to shore up the state budget in response to any federal action from President Donald Trump that could cause Illinois to lose critical federal funding.
Meanwhile, the RTA said, transit agencies will have to make their budgets for next year assuming they’re not going to get any more money.
The RTA has said that layoffs could be announced as early as September. It’s not clear exactly what might happen if transit workers are told they are facing layoffs and then the legislature, weeks or months later, passes a law ensuring more funding.
“It’s going to be chaotic,” said P.S. Sriraj, the director of the Urban Transportation Center at the University of Illinois Chicago.
Workers who get pink-slipped would have to start looking for other jobs, he said. Then, if agencies learn they have more funding available and can start ramping up plans for more service, they may have to go out and hire new employees. “You’re now behind the 8-ball,” said Sriraj, who added that he believed the legislature would ultimately find funding for transit.
Buckner also indicated he understood the urgency for the state to come up with a solution on transit while the CTA is in the midst of crafting their budget.
“It’s very clear to me that they need some stability and need some certainty to know what to do if they’re going to balance their books,” said Buckner.
What would service cuts look like on the CTA, Metra and Pace?
Service cuts throughout the Chicago metro area would be drastic if the legislature doesn’t take further action, transit agencies have warned.
Service on half of the CTA’s eight rail lines could be cut entirely or at least on whole branches of the line, the RTA has said. More than 50 ‘L’ stations could close or see drastic service cuts. Frequencies on remaining rail lines would be cut between10 to 25%. And as many as 74 out of the CTA’s 127 bus routes — close to 60% of them — could be eliminated. That could leave Chicago with fewer bus routes than Madison, Wi. or Kansas City, according to the RTA.
On Metra, early morning and late evening trains would be cut. Trains might run only once an hour on weekdays and once every two hours on weekends. The Metra Electric Blue Island Branch might be slashed entirely.
On Pace buses, weekend service could be cut entirely. Federally-mandated ADA paratransit service would still exist, but its service area could be slashed by 66% on the weekends.
And as more people take to their cars because of diminished service, traffic throughout the area — which is already among the worst in the nation — could worsen.
Which CTA train lines and bus routes would be eliminated? Which ‘L’ stations would close?
We don’t know exactly where service will be cut. Here’s what we do know about the process:
This month, the RTA will give the CTA, Metra and Pace directions for the creation of their 2026 budgets. RTA spokesperson Tina Fassett Smith said in a statement over the weekend that its budget must, by law, “only include funding we are confident the system will receive in 2026.”
It will then be up to the agencies to decide how to adjust their planned service for next year. Staff at each agency will prepare proposals and budgets will be released publicly in the fall. As is the case in a typical year, each agency will hold public budget hearings in October or November.
Because the agencies receive federal funding, they will almost certainly go through a Title VI process to make sure that any proposed cuts — or fare increases — do not disproportionately impact people of color or low-income people.
For instance, the agencies will have to show that if they are cutting service 40% for riders overall, they are not cutting service by a significantly higher percentage for Black riders or low-income riders. If there will be a disparate impact from proposed cuts, they will have to show that they are taking steps to mitigate those effects. The Title VI process would include public hearings with the opportunity for riders to share their concerns.
As the agencies evaluate where to cut service, said Sriraj, they’ll be weighing Title VI responsibilities along with ridership metrics on various routes and lines and the availability of alternative modes of transit near routes slated for cuts.
The respective boards of the CTA, Metra and Pace would ultimately be responsible for approving any proposed cuts or fare hikes.
When would service cuts begin?
Cuts would begin in January at the earliest.
Maggie Daly Skogsbakken, a spokesperson for Pace, said that though the agency’s budget would take effect Jan. 1, it’s possible the cuts would not take effect until later into the year. She also said that in the past, the agency has phased in large service changes rather than make them all at once. That could happen in this case, she said.
Metra spokesperson Michael Gillis similarly said the soonest cuts would begin would be in January.
The CTA did not directly address a question about when cuts would take effect, but said in a statement it would “plan for a number of scenarios that could occur in 2026.”
“We are committed to working on behalf of our riders and employees, and we look forward to continuing the work to secure funding for Chicago-area public transit,” the agency said.
