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After a nail-biting finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, the PGA Tour heads to Silvis, Ill., this week for the John Deere Classic.
Like last week’s tournament in Detroit, TPC Deere Run will not be attracting all the best players, as many of the world’s top-ranked golfers have opted to prepare for The Open at Royal Troon in two weeks.
Still, Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Aaron Rai and reigning champion Sepp Straka will be in the field, so expect a low-scoring birdie-fest and a competitive tournament overall.
TPC Deere Run is a shorter, sub-7,300-yard course that strongly favors players with high driving accuracy, elite iron play and solid putting.
Here are two players who fit this course well and could record a win this week.
2024 John Deere Classic best bets
Patton Kizzire (100-1, FanDuel)
“Hit-or-miss” has been an accurate, albeit brutal way to describe Kizzire’s season so far. He missed six consecutive cuts from late January through late March but has since bounced back with four top-25 finishes in his past five tournaments, including a T10 at Myrtle Beach.
Despite the roller-coaster season, Kizzire ranks ninth in birdie average and eighth in shots gained approaching the green. These are two of the statistical categories that carry the most weight on TPC Deere Run.
Obviously, this is a longshot, but Kizzire has already had some success at the course, finishing T16 in 2021 and T11 in 2020.
Aaron Rai (+2000, DraftKings)
Rai comes into this tournament in excellent form and remains an enticing pick to log his first win on the PGA Tour this week.
Rai has logged a T4 at TPC Craig Ranch and a T2 last week at Rocket Mortgage. Further, he has finished in the top 20 in four of his past six tournaments overall.
There are not many players outperforming Rai from a statistical standpoint, either. He ranks second in greens-in-regulation percentage, sixth in shots gained approaching the green, seventh in driving accuracy and ninth in shots gained tee-to-green.
All of those stats are highly correlated with a strong finish at TPC Deere Run. If his putter gets hot, Rai could easily run away from the weak field.
