Latest parliamentary win by Putin's United Russia has been years in the manufacturing

(The Conversation is an independent and nonprofit source of news, analysis and commentary from academic experts.) Regina Smyth, Indiana University (THE CONVERSATION) President Vladimir Putin’s ruling United Russia party defied economic concerns and a recent slump in support to retain a parliamentary majority ‘” to the surprise of almost no one. The official tally announced by Russia’s Central Election Commission on Sept. 20, 2021, was met with immediate skepticism. The three-day vote has been plagued with allegations of poll violations, the exclusion of opposition leaders and delays in the announcement of online voting results that strongly favored regime candidates. The outcome means United Russia retains a constitutional majority in parliament. The other big winners in the national election were smaller, pro-Kremlin parties. If taken on face value, the results would suggest a turnaround in approval rates for United Russia. Public support for the party dropped to 27% nationally in the months before the election. A leaked internal poll in March showed that 55% of people in Moscow said they would support opposition candidates. Yet United Russia claimed victory even in Moscow ‘” although the results there were immediately questioned by opposition parties that aired concern over votes cast online without anonymity or independent observation. The election coincides with a period of economic stagnation, high household inflation, the ongoing coronavirus crisis and environmental disasters ‘” all of which undermined support for the party that many Russians call ‘œthe Party of Crooks and Thieves.’� But even with these gloomy indicators for United Russia, decades of research on Russian elections prepared me for the results. In fact, the latest victory by Putin’s party has been years in the making. Democratic veneer, authoritarian result In 2012, Putin ordered a new election law that would elect half the parliament in U.S.-style congressional districts. This gave the Presidential Administration, which manages Russian elections from the Kremlin, a new toolkit to determine electoral outcomes. In 2016, Putin’s party won over 90% of these new districts. United Russia’s Sept. 20 victory maintains Putin’s parliamentary bloc ‘” made up of seats won in district races plus seats won in national party-based contests ‘” at 66%. That’s enough votes to enact constitutional change. Manufactured support In addition to the 2012 election reform that has helped United Russia stay in power, Putin found other ways to boost his party’s results. New rules allowing Russians in parts of eastern Ukraine ‘” an area held by Russian-backed separatists ‘” to participate in the election provided additional support to United Russia’s national vote totals. And in response to COVID-19 practices, some votes were cast online or in mobile precincts over three consecutive days beginning on Sept. 17. These innovations helped hide fraud from election observers. Most important, the growing sense that elections are futile may have suppressed turnout. Voter turnout was recorded at just 45.15% by the Central Election Commission. Low turnout magnified the Kremlin’s successful mobilization of workers dependent on state paychecks. A survey prior to the election found that United Russia support among those intending to vote was 42% ‘” much higher than the national average of 27% of eligible voters. A crackdown on opposition As Putin develops new strategies to stay in power, so have opposition activists trying to counter such tactics.